Michigan’s Shea Patterson Has Concerning Over/Unders Compared to Elite College QBs: Just 22.5 TD Passes, but 8.0 Interceptions

*All odds taken 08/22/19.

Patterson threw a total of seven interceptions on 325 pass attempts in his first year with Michigan. He threw nine interceptions in just seven games in his final year at Ole Miss as a sophomore.

Shea Patterson wasn't named one of Michigan's captains, but should Wolverine fans worry? Absolutely not. #GoBlue https://t.co/u6xmwNUSZe

— Saturday Blitz (@SaturdayBlitz) August 20, 2019

I predict Patterson throwing  eight interceptions in 2019, making betting the over/under here challenging. With Michigan returning  four of its five starters along the offensive line and new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’s spread offense resembling the one Patterson was accustomed to with Ole Miss, I’ll take the under for interceptions.

Pick: Under 8 Interceptions (-115)

Shea Patterson’s Total Rushing TD’s in 2019 Regular Season

*All odds taken 08/22/19

Patterson should be running more in 2019 under previously mentioned Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and his new system. While he didn’t have a rushing TD in his freshman season for Ole Miss, he had one the following year on 47 attempts and two during his first season with the Wolverines on 76 attempts.

Josh Gattis hasn't shied away from admitting how excited he is about #Michigan's offense this year:https://t.co/BRnQe9WeQa

— TheWolverine.com (@TheWolverineOn3) August 16, 2019

Patterson has typically been used to playing out of a shotgun formation, but has reportedly done a great job progressing in Michigan’s new style of offense. The Wolverines switch to a more spread-based offense should lead Patterson to two rushing TD’s in 2019.

Pick: Over 1½ Rushing TD’s (-115)

Shea Patterson’s Total Rushing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

*All odds taken 08/22/19

One of Patterson’s biggest strengths is his athleticism. He can pick up yards quickly with his feet and improvise well on plays due to his mobility.

Patterson completed 273 rushing yards in 2019, yet odds have set the over/under for his rushing yards in 2019 at just 150.  I think there is good value in betting the over here.

There has been talk backup QB Dylan McCaffrey could get significant playing time this season, but even that happening shouldn’t lead to this big of a regression for Patterson. The starting QB rushed for 200 yards against Wisconsin, Indiana and Penn State alone last year — and these three teams will be important matchups for Michigan again in 2019.

Pick: Over 150 Rushing Yards (-115)

Shea Patterson’s Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

Patterson threw 22 touchdown passes in his first year with Michigan after throwing 17 of them in his final year with Ole Miss. There are a few key reasons he should take another step forward in 2019.

Those 22 TDs in his first season came when he had little familiarity with coach Harbaugh’s pro-style system. Having that one year of experience under his belt will go a long way when it comes to pressure situations in 2019.

Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins, who were two of Michigan’s top pass catchers in 2018, are expected to be fully healthy this season. Patterson also has Ronnie Bell, Oliver Martin, Tarik Black and freshman Mike Sainristil to hit with the ball.

While I don’t see a huge jump here, Michigan’s new system, the returning receivers and Patterson’s strong ability to scan downfield before making a play should see him improve by a few TD passes in 2019.

Pick: Over 22.5 TD Passes (-115)

*All odds taken 08/22/19