Week 3 College Football Picks Against the Spread
- Week 3 of college football features an enticing Saturday slate on Sept. 16
- Alabama aims to rebound against South Florida, while Pitt faces WVU in the “Backyard Brawl”
- Read below for expert Week 3 college football picks against the spread
Week 3 of the 2023 college football season features several games with ATS betting value, including a bounce-back spot and the “Backyard Brawl”. We’ve collected our three top CFB picks against the spread to help you make money Saturday.
Among our top college football picks against the spread this weekend is a play on Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide as they aim to rebound from a disappointing loss to Texas. We’re also backing a team in the Backyard Brawl that holds major matchup edges over their opponent.
Let’s dive into our top college football picks against the spread for Week 3 (Saturday, September 16th).
Alabama vs USF Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -32 (-110) | -5000 | Over 61.5 (-110) |
| South Florida | +32 (-110) | +1800 | Under 61.5 (-110) |
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All odds as of September 13th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the top sports betting sites for college football against the spread betting. Bettors in the Bluegrass State should check out Kentucky sports betting ahead of the September 28th launch.
Pick #1: Alabama -32 (vs South Florida)
Beginning our Week 3 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Alabama Crimson Tide as 32-point road favorites against the USF Bulls. We faded the Tide against the Longhorns in our CFB picks last weekend, but betting on Saban after a loss is a profitable betting strategy.
Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Crimson Tide are 5-1 against the spread in games following a loss. Of course, you don’t want to rely on a single metric when making a pick, but there are plenty of other variables pointing to a Crimson Tide cover Saturday.
Nick Saban 'would be shocked' if #Alabama doesn't respond well following its Week 2 loss to Texas
"But we have to have better execution. We've gotta do simple things better. … The future is now. We've gotta do it now."https://t.co/5FkxRA6DMK pic.twitter.com/AqXYtm5ieC
— Charlie Potter (@Charlie_Potter) September 11, 2023
South Florida of the AAC Conference is 1-1 to begin the season, losing to Western Kentucky 41-24 in Week 1 before following up with a 38-24 victory over Florida A&M last weekend. The Bulls currently feature the least-efficient passing defense in the conference after finishing the 2022 campaign allowing the most rushing yards.
Bama QB Jalen Milroe struggled against Texas, but he completed 72% of his passes for three touchdowns the previous week in a 56-7 victory over inferior Middle Tennessee. We see him bouncing back nicely against a USF defense that struggled mightily against the last dual-threat QB they faced out of the Power 5 (John Rhys Plumlee).
South Florida holds home-field advantage in this one, but it hasn’t mattered much, with the Bulls sporting a 1-6 ATS mark in their past seven games at Raymond James Stadium. Our projections have the Tide winning this one by 40-plus points, so lay the points with Saban and company in your ATS bets.
- Pick: Alabama -32 (-110)
Pitt vs West Virginia Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | -1 (-110) | -115 | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| West Virginia | +1 (-110) | -105 | Under 50.5 (-110) |
Pick #2: Pittsburgh -1 (vs West Virginia)
This might be one of the least-anticipated editions of the “Backyard Brawl”, but we still think there’s value when it comes to picking the against the spread winner. The Panthers are priced as small road favorites over the Mountaineers after winning this rivalry game 38-21 last season.
Neither the Panthers nor the Mountaineers have been all that impressive in the early goings of the CFB season, but Pittsburgh remains dominant on defense. Through two contests against Wofford and Cincinnati, the Panthers have allowed just 248.5 yards per game, which is third-best in the ACC.
West Virginia put up 56 points against Duquesne last weekend, but they still gave up 17 points to the Dukes and are allowing an average of 356 yards through two games. Offensively, the Panthers have an experienced pivot in Philip Jurkovec, while the Mountaineers are breaking in new starter Garrett Greene.
Our power ratings have Pittsburgh as near a touchdown favorite in this game, although a few points must be subtracted for WVU’s home-field advantage. Although the Panthers are 1-5 in their last five trips to Morgantown, they are clearly the better team here and have the defense to suffocate the Mountaineers offense.
Given the struggles the Mountaineers are going through in their secondary, we expect Jurkvec to have his best game of the season to date, while the Pitt defense does what it does best en route to a solid road victory.
- Pick: Pittsburgh -1 (-110)
Minnesota vs North Carolina Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | +7.5 (-115) | +245 (-110) | Over 50 (-110) |
| North Carolina | -7.5 (-105) | -305 (-110) | Under 50 (-110) |
Pick #3: Minnesota +7.5 (vs North Carolina)
Concluding our Week 3 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Minnesota vs North Carolina matchup in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are in a potential letdown spot after a wild 40-34 overtime victory over the App State Mountaineers last weekend.
UNC’s offense is in contention for the best in the ACC, but the defense remains a major concern for another season. In their overtime win over the Mountaineers, North Carolina was torched for over 200 yards passing and over 200 yards rushing.
If you look at North Carolina’s wild 63-61 victory over App State last season, they followed up with an ugly showing in a 35-28 victory over lowly Georgia State. Unlike the FBS Panthers, however, the Golden Gophers have the defense to really cause trouble for this UNC offense.
Minnesota is allowing under 100 passing yards per game and has sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times in two games. Maye is completing 82% of his passes when he has a clean pocket, but bring defensive pressure and that number drops to 47.1%.
Minnesota isn’t going to light the world on fire offensively this season, but they did showcase their potential in the run game last weekend, racking up 296 rush yards against Western Michigan. Freshman Darius Taylor went off for 193 yards in that win, and we expect Minnesota to do enough on the ground to keep this game within one score.
- Pick: Minnesota +7.5 (-110)
Current CFB ATS Picks Record: 5-4
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
