- After 20 years, Tom Brady is leaving the New England Patriots to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- The Bucs immediately became a top five Super Bowl contender based on the odds
- See three other teams whose Super Bowl odds were affected most by Brady’s decision
Maybe this is just the recency bias getting the best of me, but this has to be the craziest NFL free agency period ever. DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, DeForest Buckner, Calais Campbell, and Darius Slay, among others, have been traded, and plenty of teams are acquiring new quarterbacks to take their snaps.
The biggest-named quarterback who has found a new home is six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady. After announcing he would not be returning to the Patriots on the morning of March 17, news leaked later that evening that he would be heading south to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Admittedly, this wasn’t something I saw coming a week ago. Good for those of you who grabbed the 12-1 odds on Brady joining the Bucs back in late February.
The move brings major futures movement for the two teams directly involved, as the Bucs’ average Super Bowl odds go from +4750 to +1600, the fifth-best odds in the NFL. They’re even as short as +1200 at some sportsbooks. The Patriots, who are currently left with Jarrett Stidham as their starting QB, saw their average Super Bowl odds fade from +1400 to +2150.
But they weren’t the only teams affected by the move. Here are three more who saw major movement in their odds to win Super Bowl 55:
1) Atlanta Falcons
- Falcons’ Super Bowl odds on March 16: +3750
- Falcons’ Super Bowl odds today: +6600
After winning six of their last eight games in 2019, the Falcons were entering the 2020 season as a bit of a Super Bowl sleeper pick. As the next best team in the NFC South, their Super Bowl odds opened at +2500.
But that changed quickly.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 19, 2020
The Falcons already had the second-toughest schedule in 2020, and those two games against the now Tom Brady-led Buccaneers just got a lot tougher. This move essentially turned Atlanta from a nice wild card team into one who’s going to need to scratch and claw for seven wins.
Surprisingly, the Saints’ Super Bowl odds weren’t affected much. They were listed at +1200 and moved to +1350 after Brady signed. I can’t say the same about their divisional odds, though.
2) Buffalo Bills
- Bills’ Super Bowl odds on March 16: +3400
- Bills’ Super Bowl odds today: +2400
Whether you believe the Bills should be thrilled about Tom Brady leaving New England, or upset that they lose the opportunity to beat him, it doesn’t change the fact that Buffalo’s odds to win the Super Bowl just got a lot better.
The Bills were seen as an outside contender prior to Brady’s departure, sitting at +3400 alongside the likes of the Rams, Raiders, Browns, Bears etc.
But with Brady out of the AFC East, the Bills are now in a great position to host a playoff game. Their +2400 odds to win the Super Bowl are the tenth-best in the NFL.
3) Green Bay Packers
- Packers’ Super Bowl odds on March 16: +1900
- Packers’ Super Bowl odds today: +2550
Last season the Packers enjoyed the no. 2 seed in the NFC, and made it as far as the NFC Championship before getting sent home by the Niners.
Their Super Bowl odds opened at +2000, and they were listed at +1900 before the legal tampering period opened on Monday – the sixth-best odds in the NFL, only trailing San Francisco and New Orleans in the NFC.
Since word surfaced that Tom Brady is expected to land in Tampa, an unexpected high number of players have reached out to the Buccaneers to let them know they want to join the former Patriots’ QB there, per league sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 19, 2020
With a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center, the 2020 Packers were a top contender yet again. But when Brady signed in Tampa Bay, Green Bay saw their odds fade to +2550, no longer among the top ten contenders in the league.
The Packers are now looking up at the Bucs, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Eagles, as well as the Niners and Saints in the NFC.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.