Aaron Donald a Longshot to Break Michael Strahan’s Single-Season Sack Record
- Aaron Donald enters Week 17 of the NFL season with 19.5 sacks
- Donald can tie Michael Strahan’s single-season mark with three sacks
- How many sacks will Donald get in Week 17? Will he match, or surpass, Strahan?
Aaron Donald has been on an MVP-like tear all season long.
As we enter the last week of the regular season, Donald is already in elite company. He has one of the 20 19+ sack seasons ever recorded in NFL history.
With another 0.5 sacks, he’ll record just the 12th-ever season with at least 20 sacks.
But does he have it in him to match, or beat, Michael Strahan’s all-time mark of 22.5?
Odds Aaron Donald Breaks Strahan’s Sack Record
| Will Aaron Donald record 3.5+ sacks in Week 17? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +550 |
| No | -1000 |
*All odds taken 12/27
How Many Sacks will Aaron Donald have in Week 17?
| Total Sacks Week 17: Aaron Donald | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | -135 |
| Under 1 | -105 |
Can Aaron Donald terrorize 49ers interior line?
Back in Week 7, Donald and the Rams had their way with the 49ers offensive line.
As a whole, the Rams totaled seven sacks against San Fran. Donald made his way to the quarterback four times in that game. It was one of his seven multi-sack efforts in 2018.
Aaron Donald needs 4 sacks Sunday to break Michael Strahan’s 17-year-old single season record of 22.5.
Seems crazy, right?
Aaron Donald had four sacks the last time the Rams played the 49ers. @gmfb
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) December 26, 2018
Donald added a hit and a hurry for six total pressures.
But since then, the 49ers’ offensive line has cleaned things up.
49ers Offensive Line gradings
| Player | Position | Snaps (at Position) | Pressures Allowed | Hurries | Hits | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston Richburg | C | 906 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 |
| Laken Tomlinson | LG | 995 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 |
| Mike Person | RG | 927 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 |
Overall, Mike Person (T-30th) and Laken Tomlinson (T-32nd) fall into the middle of the pack in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking efficiency. In terms of guard tandems in the NFL, however, they come out much more favorably.
There are just seven teams where both guards rank above Person and Tomlinson in pass blocking efficiency.
Kyle Shanahan: "Weston Richburg has been one of the best centers I've had. He's loved here"
— The Giant Insider Newspaper & Podcast (@GiantInsider) November 8, 2018
Richburg falls farther down the list. He’s 25th among centers with at least 350 pass blocking snaps this year. His efficiency works out to a 96.7% clip.
Richburg was responsible for two of those seven sacks against the Rams. Person and Tomlinson both played a clean game.
49ers last five games vs opposing pass rush
| Week | Opponent | Sacks Allowed | Multiple Sacks to one player? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | @ TB | 4 | No |
| 13 | @ SEA | 3 | No |
| 14 | vs DEN | 3 | Bradley Chubb (2) |
| 15 | vs SEA | 3 | Jarran Reed (2) |
| 16 | vs CHI | 1 | No |
Does recent history offer hope against Aaron Donald?
Over the last few weeks, the 49ers haven’t been immune to giving up sacks. They have done well at limiting multi-sack performances though.
In five weeks they’ve given up multiple sacks to just two players: Bradley Chubb, and defensive tackle Jarran Reed.
Reed’s performance proves that the interior of San Fran’s line can still be exploited, and Donald may be the guy to do it.
Aaron Donald has 19.5 sacks this season and next Sunday against the 49ers needs 3 to tie – 4 to break – Michael Strahan's all-time record of 22.5. Donald had 4 sacks earlier this season against the 49ers. pic.twitter.com/RXVAsMeavi
— LindseyThiry (@LindseyThiry) December 24, 2018
What to bet on Aaron Donald during Week 17?
Despite the fact he wrapped up the QB four times in the first meeting, don’t expect that again.
Donald WILL NOT (-1000) record the 3.5 sacks necessary to dethrone Strahan. It just seems too lofty.
But Donald will get to the QB. How many snaps he plays depends on the Rams. We’re guessing he ends up with 0.5 SACKS (-105) to get him to 20, but shuts it down after that.
How deep the Rams go in the playoffs rests largely on Aaron Donald. They won’t be risking him to challenge an unlikely benchmark.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
