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Sportsbooks List Antonio Brown & Tyreek Hill as Co-Favorites to Lead NFL in Receiving TDs

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 10:57 AM PDT

Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers
Could Antonio Brown be moved out of Pittsburgh? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill favorites to win TD receiving title
  • Can Eric Ebron spoil the party?
  • Evaluating the best bet as the NFL regular season winds down

It’s the home stretch, and we’re talking majors – as in, who’s going to finish with the most receiving TDs this season.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that sportsbooks’ co-favorites Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill lead the NFL in receiving scores, and operate on two of the best offenses in the league.

But as you’ll soon find out, there are other worthy contenders to this – as well as a sleeper hiding in plain sight.

Let’s get to it.

Odds to Lead the NFL in TD Receptions in 2018

Player Team Odds
Antonio Brown Steelers +250
Tyreek Hill Chiefs +250
Eric Ebron Colts +400
Davante Adams Packers +600
DeAndre Hopkins Texans +1600
Tyler Lockett Seahawks +1600
Calvin Ridley Falcons +1600
Adam Thielen Vikings +1600
Michael Thomas Saints +1600

Brown’s Remaining Slate Favorable to Hill’s

Coming home, four of the final five Steelers opponents rank in the bottom-10 of TD passes allowed.

The Raiders and the Bengals are tied for second worst, surrendering 25 strikes already, while the Patriots (9th – 22) and Saints (T-10th – 21) aren’t exactly shutting down the passing game.

Hill still has two matchups with those lowly Raiders, but the Ravens (T-2nd fewest), Seahawks (T-4th) and Chargers (T-3rd) all have formidable pass defenses and will be more of a challenge.

Rosters also matter: Hill is one cog in the mighty Chiefs machine. Running back Kareem Hunt and tight end Travis Kelce have seven receiving scores this season between them, showing the Chiefs’ offense is more equal opportunity.

Brown is just two off his career high of 13 TDs in a season, and no one else on the roster has more than four.

What About Eric Ebron’s Chances?

The injury to fellow tight end Jack Doyle has opened the door to Ebron, who has finally seemed to match his prodigious talents that made him a Lions first-round pick.

He’s just a reception and target behind team leader TY Hilton, and has become a steady go-to guy for Andrew Luck.

Ebron’s 11 TDs match his entire previous four-year output, but his chances are entirely linked to the man-on-fire routine that Luck has put on over the last eight games.

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While this streak doesn’t seem sustainable, should the QB stay hot, Ebron is as good a bet as any to win that crown.

Top NFL Wide Receiver Statistics 2018-19

Player Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns
Antonio Brown 122 71 874 11
Tyreek Hill 94 65 1,106 11
Eric Ebron 72 44 508 11
Davante Adams 114 77 1,022 10
DeAndre Hopkins 102 73 1,024 8
Tyler Lockett 53 43 661 8
Calvin Ridley 66 47 625 8
Adam Thielen 124 93 1,138 8
Michael Thomas 97 86 1,080 8

Don’t Forget About Davante Adams

In terms of value, it seems amazing Davante Adams is getting +600 odds when he trails the leaders by one TD.

Perhaps even more amazing is that Adams is the Packers’ red zone threat (and not Jimmy Graham), tied for the league lead in targets with 23. He’s converted those chances into 11 catches and nine TDs.

With Aaron Rodgers tossing, and the Packers desperate to run the table for a playoff berth, Adams is going to have ample opportunity to light it up.

Ebron has 10 catches on 18 targets for nine majors in the red zone. Brown (5rec, 3TD) and Hill (9 rec, 5TD) are further down the list, but to be fair, they do much of their damage with bigger plays.

Best Bet to Lead NFL in Receiving TDs

I think this is a race between Brown and Ebron, but the volume of work that Brown gets should give him more opportunities to take it.

If you’re going for value, Adams is the guy. While the other players on the list are enticing picks at +1600, it may be too far a gap to make up in the final five weeks to earn you that big payout.

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