Bears Still Super Bowl 53 Longshots with Khalil Mack
- The Bears have acquired Khalil Mack from the Raiders
- Mack was the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
- How has the move affected the Bears’ Super Bowl 53 odds?
When the Oakland Raiders hired Jon Gruden to become their next head coach on January 5th, there were certainly some concerns surrounding the former Monday Night Football color commentator’s return to the sideline.
Would Gruden’s hard-nosed coaching style jive with young quarterback Derek Carr and the rest of the locker room? Would Gruden be able to adapt his offense to the modern pass-happy NFL? How would he get along with owner Mark Davis and GM Reggie McKenzie?
But back on January 5th, no one was considering Gruden’s first big move would be trading two-time All-Pro and 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack.
Sources: The #Bears are giving 2 first-round picks to the #Raiders for star Khalil Mack. That may not be it, but that is the crux of the deal. A huge, huge deal.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 1, 2018
Rumors of Mack potentially holding out of camp started swirling early in the summer. But no one thought anything other than a long-term extension would be the result.
Even when it became apparent Gruden wasn’t sure handing Mack a Miller/Donald-like contract was the best move for his organization, a trade still seemed extremely unlikely.
Back on August 11th,sportsbooks released odds on whether Mack would be traded by the end of the 2018 season. But “NO” was the resounding favorite at -500. This is Khalil Mack we are talking about here.
It didn’t take long for concerns to escalate, though, as the same online sports betting site released odds 11 days later on what team Khalil Mack would be playing for on November 1st of 2018. The Packers were listed as favorites to land Mack with +200 odds, while the Raiders (+250) and Bears (+350) filled out the top three.
Another ten days later, and here we are: Khalil Mack is a Bear.
See how the two teams’ odds to win Super Bowl 53 have been affected by the deal.
Bears’ Average Super Bowl 53 Odds
The Bears defense was their strength last season. Chicago ranked ninth in points allowed and tenth in yards allowed. But their pass rush wasn’t exactly frightening.
Chicago received a 64.5 pass rushing grade (26th), courtesy PFF. After adding Khalil Mack, that will certainly change. Mack received an 88.3 pass rushing grade, good for sixth-best in the NFL among all edge defenders.
I#Bears updated Front 7:
LE Akiem Hicks
RE Jonathan Bullard
NT Eddie Goldman
ILB Roquan Smith
ILB Danny Trevathan
OLB Khalil Mack
OLB Leonard Floyd— Evan Silva (@evansilva) September 1, 2018
It’s safe to say the Bears will possess a very good defense again in 2018. But that wasn’t the concern with the 2018 Chicago Bears.
It was whether head coach Matt Nagy could turn 2017’s 29th-ranked scoring offense into a serviceable group, which starts with the development of Mitchell Trubisky.
And until we see proof, we’re forced to assume the Bears offense will still be a below-average unit. This is why they remain a longshot to win Super Bowl 53.
Sure, the jump from +9000 to +7000 average odds separates them from the Bills, Cardinals, and other basement dwellers, but they’re still far from being considered contenders.
Bears’ Super Bowl 53 Odds
| Rank | Team | Super Bowl 53 Odds on Aug 27 | Super Bowl 53 Odds on Sep 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | +700 | +700 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | +1000 | +900 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | +1000 | +1200 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | +1000 | +1200 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1000 | +1200 |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | +10000 | +5000 |
Before acquiring Mack, one sportsbook had Chicago at +10000, while the Bills were the only team with longer odds. With Mack, the Bears are at +5000, the same odds the Tennessee Titans are receiving.
There’s still a lot of room for growth, but the Bears’ Super Bowl 53 odds took a big step in the right direction with this trade.
Are the Bears Worth Betting in Super Bowl 53 Futures?
No. The Bears don’t even have the best defense in the NFC North, and roll out the least inspiring QB in the division.
It’s awfully difficult imagining the Vikings and Packers not taking the top two spots in the North, and the NFC has far too many good teams for the Bears to steal a wild card spot.
Raiders’ Average Super Bowl 53 Odds
I have no answer for why the Oakland Raiders would trade Khalil Mack. Levi Damien summed the move up pretty well:
#Raiders scratched off a lottery ticket, won big money, like REALLY big money. Then Gruden grabbed it and went back into the store and said “Can I just exchange this for a couple more lottery tickets instead?”
— Levi Damien (@LeviDamien) September 1, 2018
And to make matters worse for Raiders faithful, they gave up a second-round pick in the trade.
Trade official, source tells ESPN:
Bears get: Khalil Mack, a 2020 second-round round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth-round pick.
Raiders get: 2019 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick.
So Bears get back second-round pick, too
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 1, 2018
You rarely see online sports betting sites react too harshly in futures markets when a team trades away a star player, clearly getting worse. So a move from average odds of +3200 to +3700 is actually quite significant.
The graph also shows how rough of an offseason it has been in Oakland. Back on February 22nd, they had the shortest average Super Bowl 53 odds in the AFC West, and saw odds as short as +2400 on March 14th.
Now they’re one poor showing away from having the longest average Super Bowl 53 odds in the division.
Are the Raiders Still Super Bowl 53 Contenders Without Mack?
Absolutely not. But I also didn’t believe the Raiders were true contenders with Mack, either.
Oakland doesn’t excite me on either side of the ball. Their defense will be worse than last season, when they ranked 20th in points allowed. And I don’t have much faith in their offense returning to their 2016 form, when they ranked in the top seven for both yards and points.
The Raiders are more likely to be picking first-overall in the 2019 NFL Draft than hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Where is the Value in Super Bowl 53 Betting?
There are two teams I’m eyeing in Super Bowl 53 futures: the Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints. You can have the former at +2200 and the latter at +1600.
The Chargers have the recipe for taking down the Patriots in the AFC: an offense that can attack through the air but also control the clock by running the football, and a defense that can get to the passer without blitzing and has corners that can cover when needed.
Looking to the NFC, I feel just as strong about the Saints’ Super Bowl chances as I do anyone else in the conference. So I’ll take the value in their +1600 odds.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
