Bears Have Toughest 2nd-Half Strength of Schedule in NFL, Buccaneers Have Easiest
By Matt McEwan in NFL Football
Published:
- I have updated my NFL strength of schedule rankings for the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season
- The Chicago Bears have the hardest remaining NFL schedule, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the easiest
- See how I’m using this NFL SOS information to make some NFL futures bets
With the 18-week schedule of the NFL season, we have an official halfway point, which is now upon us after the conclusion of Week 9 on Monday night. With another nine games ahead (the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season), I decided to update my NFL strength of schedule rankings so we can have a look at what each team is facing over the next nine weeks.
If you want to see the full NFL SOS rankings for the second half of the season, you can go ahead and click the link above. My goal in this article is to focus on the two extremes (easiest and toughest schedules) and determine what we can do with this information from a betting standpoint.
Bears Have Toughest NFL Strength of Schedule in 2nd Half
In order to update my NFL SOS rankings, I used NFL win totals that have been updated after each week of the season. This allowed me to figure out which teams faced the easiest and toughest schedules over the second half of the season. The team with the toughest remaining nine games is the Chicago Bears.
Chicago’s average opponent over the final nine weeks is a 9.94-win team. For context, the next toughest belongs to the Steelers, who will face an average 9.61-win team.
Here’s a look at their nine remaining opponents, since they have already had their bye:
Bears Remaining Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | vs Patriots | 4.5 |
| 11 | vs Packers | 10.5 |
| 12 | vs Vikings | 11 |
| 13 | at Lions | 12.5 |
| 14 | at 49ers | 9.5 |
| 15 | at Vikings | 11 |
| 16 | vs Lions | 12.5 |
| 17 | vs Seahawks | 7.5 |
| 18 | at Packers | 10.5 |
Six of Chicago’s final nine games are played against teams with double-digit win totals, and one of the other three comes against the 49ers, who are likely to have Christian McCaffrey fully worked into the offense by the time Week 14 rolls around. All six of those double-digit win total opponents are divisional games as well. Chicago has yet to play a single game against a fellow NFC North foe, and those three teams (the Lions, Vikings, and Packers) are arguably three of the top five teams in the conference.
How to Bet the Bears NFL Futures
Before I dive into which Bears futures bets I like right now, let’s take a look at each of their current NFL futures:
- To make the playoffs (+490 at FanDuel) / to miss the playoffs (-550 at Caesars)
- Win total = 7.5 (-140 Ov / +115 Un)
- NFC North odds = +4000
I have left out NFC Championship and Super Bowl odds, since they’re not worth consideration.
Unfortunately, we missed the boat on betting the Bears to miss the playoffs. At -550 odds, I don’t believe the risk is worth the reward. However, I do like the under on their win total, which you can get at +115 on BetMGM or ESPN Bet.
The Bears are currently 4-4 with wins over the Titans, Rams (without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp), Panthers, and Jaguars. Rams aside, who were very banged up at the time, the other three teams would find themselves on just about everyone’s list of the five worst teams in the league.
Yes, Chicago has played some close games against the Colts, Texans, and Commanders. But their schedule gets a whole lot tougher in the second half. I think it’s very possible they go 0-6 within their division, and don’t like them to beat the 49ers either.
I also feel this team is imploding right now. That loss to the Cardinals last week was awful. The Bears are playing like a team who is trying to get their coach fired right now. For as good as their defense may be, I don’t see another four wins on their schedule.
- Pick: Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+115 at BetMGM or ESPN Bet)
Buccaneers Have Easiest Remaining NFL SOS
The easiest remaining NFL strength of schedule belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their final nine weeks will be played against opponents who average out to a 6-win team. This is by far the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The next easiest belongs to the Falcons, who will see an average 7.38-win team.
Here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s schedule over the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season:
Buccaneers Remaining Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | vs 49ers | 9.5 |
| 11 | BYE | — |
| 12 | at Giants | 5 |
| 13 | at Panthers | 3.5 |
| 14 | vs Raiders | 4.5 |
| 15 | at Chargers | 10 |
| 16 | at Cowboys | 6.5 |
| 17 | vs Panthers | 3.5 |
| 18 | vs Saints | 5.5 |
Before you ask, know that I have considered bye weeks in my calculations. Tampa Bay has not had their bye yet, as it comes in Week 11.
The Bucs have the luxury of playing the Panthers, arguably the league’s worst team, twice in the second half, while four of their other six games come against teams whose win totals are 6.5 or less. To be fair, the Cowboys game in Week 16 may end up being tougher than it seems right now, depending on whether Dallas’ talent returns from injury by then.
Tampa Bay’s toughest opponent over the second half appears to be the Los Angeles Chargers, with the San Francisco 49ers being the only other team they play whose win total is north of 6.5. This is quite the change from the Buccaneers’ first half of the season, when they have played an average 10.67-win team. That first half was the toughest in the NFL.
How to Bet the Buccaneers NFL Futures
Here’s a quick look at the NFL futures we have available for the Buccaneers:
- To make the playoffs (+225 at BetMGM) / to miss the playoffs (-235 at Caesars)
- Win total = 8.5 (+110 Ov / -125 Un)
- NFC South odds = +900
Tampa Bay is currently 4-5 and two full games back of the Falcons for the NFC South lead. It should also be noted that Atlanta has clinched a potential head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay as well, since they have already beaten them twice. Pair that with the fact that Atlanta has the second-easiest remaining schedule, and I don’t see value in betting the Bucs to win the division.
I do, however, believe the over 8.5 on the Bucs win total at +110 odds presents some value. I have them beating the Panthers both games, Saints (again), Raiders, Giants, and probably the Cowboys too. I’m also not writing them off in their games against the 49ers or Chargers.
If you do believe they’ll lose to the 49ers this week, you could hold off on making this bet until next week, when they would have even better odds (assuming they do lose). I’m not going to do that, though. I’m placing the bet now. I don’t think San Francisco is the powerhouse we have known them to be over the past few seasons, and may suffer through some initial growing pains as they work Christian McCaffrey back into the offense.
Also, I like the over on their win total better than betting them to make the playoffs. I think either the Eagles or Commanders take one wild card spot, and the other two could very well go to the NFC North. But then there’s also the entire NFC West in the hunt for one of those spots as well.
- Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8.5 Wins (+110 at Caesars)
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Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
