Best Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 14

• Longtime NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions face off tonight on Thursday Night Football
• Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay features an alt ATS pick, a First Half Over, and a plus-money Anytime TD pick
• Below, see all four legs of a +750 Packers vs Lions SGP for Thursday Night Football

We’re still a month away from the NFL postseason, but tonight’s NFC North showdown will have all the feelings of a playoff matchup when the Green Bay Packers head to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. Kickoff for Thursday Night Football is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Picks

This week’s Packers vs Lions SGP adds up to +750 , where a $100 bet will net a profit of $750 , but only if all four legs hit.

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Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Lions Alt Spread (-2.5)

First, I’m avoiding the current game line of -3 because no one wants a push! Who wants to see their parlay voided just because a team won by exactly a field goal? Instead, I’m moving the goalposts (pun intended) and taking a -2.5 alt spread.

The Lions are 9-3 ATS in 2024 and are 6-1 when laying five points or fewer as a favorite. In the games where they’ve covered the spread, Detroit has done so by 3.5 points or more eight out of nine times.

Compare this all against the Packers’ ATS record of 6-6 for the season – 2-3 away from home and 1-1 as road dogs – and taking Detroit to cover starts to make sense.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: First Half Over 24.5 Points

My reasoning for a high-scoring first half is three-fold: the Lions like to score early, the Packers also like to score early, and the Lions defense is beat up.

Detroit currently leads the league in first-half PPG at 18.5. That includes last week’s 16 points against Chicago, who you’d think Detroit should have pummeled but instead feel like a bogey team for the the Dan Campbell-era Lions. For that reason, I’d call last week’s result the exception and not the rule, particularly when it brings their three-game average down to 19.3.

The @Lions have scored 6+ TDs in three-straight home games for the first time in franchise history.

The @Lions have also scored 42+ points in three-straight home games, tying the franchise record-long streak, which was done in 1952.#OnePride pic.twitter.com/BzoX6wKV3T

— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) November 17, 2024

Any results will look modest when compared to the highest scoring team in the league, but the Packers are no slouches when it comes to scoring early. Green Bay is currently averaging 14.0 1st Half PPG, averaging 16.0 in their last three games. I’m expect fireworks right from kickoff.

And if you’re in need of icing for your proverbial cake, check out the current depth chart for the Lions:

This screenshot, taken last night, isn’t my way of saying the Lions are going to roll over and die on defense. They’ve already made due without all those IR players (which I elaborate on below) and I don’t doubt they’ll have a game plan for the Packers. Having a full week off between two Thursday night games certainly helps.

But adding Malcolm Rodriguez and Mekhi Wingo to the IR before designating DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike as Out for TNF will undoubtedly embolden the Packers to make moves. That’s why I’m banking on both teams to be aggressive early.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards

I know I just finished talking about how the Packers “will be aggressive early,” but hear me out on why I’m going conservative on my Josh Jacobs leg of the parlay. Even when considering the Lions’ defensive injuries, there are reasons to be hesitant, particularly if you’re thinking of betting Jacobs’ O/U line tonight.

To his credit, Jacobs has hit 60+ yards in 9 of 12 games this season, while hitting 70+ in 8 of 12.  When his team is an away underdog, Jacobs career average is 75.4 YPG. This is exactly why his TNF O/U line of 69.5 looks so enticing.

However, Jacobs is considerably better when playing outdoors (76.2 YPG) than indoors (58.8 YPG), while his 2024 away underdog YPG is only 63.5.

Maybe Jacobs will light up the Lions for 90+ yards, like he did a month ago at Lambeau Field, but in the four games since the Lions have held opposing offenses to less than 100 rushing yards. That includes the likes of Joe Mixon (46 yds),  Jonathan Taylor (35 yds), and D’Andre Swift (39 yards), all of whom will likely hit 1,000 yards this season.

Again, that’s with a beat up Lions defense. It’s also worth noting that if Detroit takes an early lead, the Packers will likely take to the air to keep up.

Jacobs may be rounding into form right now, but the Lions’ rush defense continues to shine. I’m willing to hedge with a lower milestone total rather than the O/U wager.

Packers vs Lions Same-Game Parlay Pick #4: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer

After scouring social media, I feel like I’m bucking trends by not taking a running back for Thursday’s Anytime TD scorer, but in doing so we can bring in a quality plus-money pick pick for the fourth leg of the parlay.

Yes, the Lions score a lot of rushing touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for 21 TDs (not to mention almost 1,700 yards) in 12 games is borderline insanity. As for the Packers, a lot of bettors are honing in on Jacobs & the depleted Lions defense.

Any of those three players are quality TD options, but I believe there’s money in taking Amon-Ra St. Brown in this spot for a few reasons.

St. Brown is currently fourth in receptions, first in receiving first downs, and, most importantly, tied for second in receiving TDs. He’s just one away from a career high for TDs in a season (10) and has five games to get there. Three of his career thirty receiving touchdowns have come against the Packers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Mesh Throwback

Ben Johnson cooking
St. Brown runs to perfection pic.twitter.com/x5SLLMgF4x

— Mike Vannucci (@WRCoachVannucci) December 2, 2024

To be fair, the Packers don’t give up a lot of touchdowns, particularly this season as they currently sit tied for 10th and 12th in rushing and passing TDs allowed, respectively. Since 2019, Matt LaFleur’s defenses have given up 1.39 passing TDs per game, compared to just 0.92 rushing TD/G.

However, those passing TD averages go up when the Packers are playing as underdogs (1.52 TD/G) or when playing in a dome (1.76 TD/G).

These aren’t huge numbers when compared to league averages, but are still significant enough when it comes to the potential plan of attack for the Lions. It’s enough of an edge for me to look to St. Brown to score Thursday night.