Bills vs Chiefs Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for SNF Week 5
By John Hyslop in NFL Football
Published:
- The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will finish off the Week 5 Sunday slate at 8:20pm ET Sunday, October 10th
- Josh Allen and the Bills will be looking for revenge after getting bounced from the 2020 NFL playoffs by the Chiefs 38-24
- See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets, below
Arrowhead Stadium will be on fire Sunday night when the Buffalo Bills (3-1) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) on NBC. This will be Josh Allen and the rest of the Buffalo Bills’ first shot at revenge for last year’s AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm ET.
The Bills had a great tune up last week beating the Houston Texans 40-0 that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Buffalo dominated every facet of the game holding the ball for over 38 minutes in the game. The Chiefs looked just as good in their game with the Eagles beating them 42-30.
The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites in the look ahead line for this one but the number has since shrunk to -3. So far a ridiculous 86% of the wagers have been on the Bills so there is a ton of confidence in the gambling community in this team. The total for this one is the highest on the Week 5 slate at 56.5. Â As always, there are plenty of player props to consider.
Bills vs Chiefs Player Props
| Passer | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (Bills) | 26.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | 304.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 2.5 (Ov +145 / Un -195) |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | 26.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) | 307.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 2.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130) |
| Rusher | Longest Rush | Rushing Yards | Total Yards |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) | 14.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) | 51.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 59.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) |
| Darrel Williams (Chiefs) | NA | 16.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) | 81.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | 12.5 (Ov -105 / Un -130) | 33.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | NA |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | 10.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | 16.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) | 81.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) |
| Zack Moss (Bills) | 11.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) | 38.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | NA |
| Receiver | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Blake Bell (Chiefs) | NA | 3.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | NA |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) | 2.5 (Ov +130 / Un -175) | 15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) | 10.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Cole Beasley (Bills) | 4.5 (Ov -145 / Un +110) | 52.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 19.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Darrel Williams (Chiefs) | NA | 10.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | NA |
| Dawson Knox (Bills) | 3.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125) | 33.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 16.5 (Ov -110 / Un -125) |
| Demarcus Robinson (Chiefs) | NA | 12.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | NA |
| Emmanuel Sanders (Bills) | 4.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) | 51.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 21.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) |
| Mecole Hardman (Chiefs) | 2.5 (Ov -165 / Un +125) | 31.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | 15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Stefon Diggs (Bills) | 7.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) | 87.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 25.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Travis Kelce (Chiefs) | 7.5 (Ov +110 / Un -145) | 87.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 24.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) | 6.5 (Ov -140 / Un +105) | 88.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 26.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110) |
| Zack Moss (Bills) | 1.5 (Ov -200 / Un +150) | 13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 9.5 (Ov -110 / Un -125) |
| Devin Singletary (Bills) | 1.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115) | 11.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) | 8.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) |
| Gabriel Davis (Bills) | 1.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140) | 16.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115) | 13.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120) |
Odds as of Oct. 8 at DraftKings.
Dawson Knox Will Shine
Sunday night we are going to see a ton of star power between Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. When there’s this much star power, it’s easy to forget about the other guys. I’m talking about guys like Dawson Knox who have quietly emerged as a legitimate weapon for a contender.
The Dawson Knox TE1 breakout continues. 🔥@CDCarter13 called it!
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/JwyIqCRbHB
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) October 3, 2021
The Buffalo Bills are throwing the ball a ton this season. In fact, only eight teams have attempted more passes so far and one of those teams played an extra game. It just makes sense that if the Bills are throwing the ball then people are catching it. It’s science.
What’s most different about the Bills this season is they are throwing to their tight ends more. Specifically Dawson Knox. After only targeting Knox 44 times in 12 games last season, he’s seen 20 already this season after just four games.
The Bills are underdogs this week so it’s expected that they will be chasing points. If that’s the case, Buffalo should be throwing and one area the Chiefs don’t cover well is the tight end position. Only two teams that have only played four games have given up more receptions to the position. If the Bills do in fact need to throw the ball to stay in the game, Knox should catch at least 4 balls.
- The Pick: Dawson Knox Over 3.5 Receptions (-105) – Wager 1.05 units to win 1 unit
- 2021 NFL Player Props Record – 6-7 -1.55 Units
Bills vs Chiefs Scoring Props
| Player | First Touchdown Scorer | Anytime Touchdown Scorer |
|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) | +750 | -135 |
| Travis Kelce (Chiefs) | +750 | -125 |
|
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs)
|
+900 | +105 |
| Stefon Diggs (Bills) | +900 | +100 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +1200 | +130 |
| Emmanuel Sanders (Bills) | +1300 | +160 |
| Zack Moss (Bills) | +1400 | +175 |
| Dawson Knox (Bills) | +1400 | +180 |
| Cole Beasley (Bills) | +1600 | +200 |
| Darrel Williams (Chiefs) | +1800 | +250 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +2200 | +300 |
Who Scores?
Obviously we want to win every bet we make but when it comes to touchdown props, we can take on different strategies. The one I like for this game is taking two different Bills’ players at plus money to score. If we win one, we profit. That’s simple. The first guy is obvious and his name is Zack Moss.
Only one team has given up more touchdowns to running backs this season than Kansas City so Moss is an obvious choice.
Zack Moss' third TD in the last two weeks! #BillsMafia
📺: #WASvsBUF on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/jnv9WisfYQ— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2021
The other guy is none other than Dawson Knox at +180. He’s already caught four touchdowns on the season and the Bills look to him inside the 10 yard line. He is tied with Stefon Diggs for the most targets on the team in that range and that isn’t likely to change. The Chiefs have trouble covering the tight end position as we already know and one mistake Sunday could make us profitable.
- Pick: Zack Moss – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175): Wager .1 unit to win 0.175 units
- Pick: Dawson Knox – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180): Wager .1 unit to win 0.18 units
- 2021 Touchdown Scorer prop record: 3-9, -0.6 units
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.
