2026 Conn Smythe Odds: Predictions & Best Value Picks for the Stanley Cup Final

• Carolina reached the Stanley Cup Final, eliminating Montreal in five games to set up a date with Vegas
• The Hurricanes sit around -160 to win it all, and that favorite tag carries real weight in the Conn Smythe market
• See my Conn Smythe predictions, best value picks and the full FanDuel odds board below

The matchup is locked in. Carolina closed out Montreal in five to reach the Final, where Vegas has been resting up after sweeping Colorado in the Western Conference Final.

Carolina enters as the betting favorite, sitting around -160 in the Stanley Cup odds. That price matters more than you’d think when handicapping the Conn Smythe, since the award almost always goes to a player on the team that lifts the trophy.

Here are my Conn Smythe predictions and the best value plays I’m backing, plus the full FanDuel board for playoff MVP.

2026 Conn Smythe Odds

Mitch Marner and Frederik Andersen are the clear top two, but the value sits a little further down the list. They’re the only two priced shorter than +700.

Marner’s number bakes in his spot as the postseason points leader on a live Cup contender, while Andersen’s +250 carries more juice than it should for the goalie of the favorite. From Hall on down, every name is a longer-odds swing with a real path to the trophy.

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Odds via FanDuel ahead of the Stanley Cup Final. Check out our top recommended NHL betting apps for Carolina vs Vegas.

Conn Smythe Trophy History

The Conn Smythe goes to the most valuable player of the playoffs, and the recent winners point to what voters reward.

Forwards have taken the Conn Smythe 31 of 60 times since 1965, good for about 52%. Goalies have won it 17 times, last by Vasilevskiy in 2021, while defensemen check in at 12. Skaters beat out goalies for the hardware roughly 74% of the time.

One trend matters most for this bet: all but one winner since 2004 has come from the Cup-winning team. McDavid in 2024 is the lone exception. So tying your pick to the team you expect to win is usually the smart route.

Conn Smythe Predictions & Best Value Picks

I’ve got four Conn Smythe predictions to break down: my best bet, a value play, a longshot flier and the chalk everyone’s already on.

• Best Bet: Frederik Andersen (+250 at FanDuel)

Andersen has anchored Carolina’s run, going 11-1 with a 1.40 GAA, a .929 save percentage and three shutouts. Those are some of the best playoff goalie numbers you’ll find anywhere.

The only thing working against him is the position bias, since skaters take this award about 74% of the time. But Carolina is the favorite to win it all, and if they finish the job, Andersen is the obvious vote. Getting +250 on a goalie in that spot is the number I like most on the board.

• Value: Taylor Hall (+700 at FanDuel)

Hall leads Carolina in scoring with 15 points (five goals, 10 assists) and has fueled their top line all postseason. He’s also the storyline pick of the bunch.

Hall has grinded for years to reach this stage, and now he’s on the doorstep of a championship as his team’s leading scorer. If voters hand it to a skater over a goalie on the Cup winner, he’s the most likely name, and +700 is a strong price for that profile.

• Longshot: Pavel Dorofeyev (+25000 at FanDuel)

If you want a true lottery ticket, Dorofeyev is it. His 10 goals lead all Vegas skaters, and the Knights have done this before, watching Jonathan Marchessault win the 2023 Conn Smythe as an under-the-radar scorer.

A couple bucks is all it takes here. Should Marner cool off and Dorofeyev catch fire in the Final, the payout is massive.

Public Play: Mitch Marner (+180 at FanDuel)

Marner is the name everyone’s betting, and it’s easy to see why. He leads every playoff skater with 21 points (seven goals, 14 assists) and a plus-12 rating.

The Toronto storyline is a big reason he’s getting hammered at the window. Marner took years of playoff criticism with the Maple Leafs, and now he’s a series away from a Cup with Vegas. If the Knights win it, he’s the runaway Conn Smythe choice.

I’m just not chasing it at this price. He’s the shortest price on the board at +180, and that number needs Vegas to pull the upset as the Cup underdog. He also went without a goal across his last two games against Colorado. Fun bet, not a sharp one.