- After Andrew Luck retired, the Colts’ playoff odds plummeted
- But over the past week, bettors seem to have been backing Indy as a longshot
- With Jacoby Brissett announced as starter, Indy went from +360 to +270 ahead of Week 1
Justin Bieber has nothing on Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Canadian pop star has the support of his Beliebers, while Brissett appears to have a solid following of believers.
There was immediate panic in the NFL betting markets when Colts QB Andrew Luck announced his retirement on August 24th. The odds on Indy skyrocketed. The Colts, considered a Super Bowl contender with Luck under center, fell from about -200 to +360, on average, in the 2019-20 NFL playoff odds.
Since that time, there’s obviously been significant action on the Colts at that price. Across the leading sportsbooks, Indy has improved to +270 to be an NFL postseason participant this season.
Odds to Make 2019-20 NFL Playoffs: AFC South Teams
|Team||Odds To Miss Playoffs||Odds To Make Playoffs|
*Odds taken on 09/06/19.
Last season with Luck at QB, the Colts went 10-6 and earned an AFC Wild Card spot.
Colts Invest In Brissett
The Colts wasted little time in spinning the tale that they think Brissett is a guy who can take them to the same places where Luck was expected to lead them. And they backed up their bravado with big bucks.
The #Colts and QB Jacoby Brissett have agreed to terms on a 2-year extension worth $30M, source said. He gets $20M guaranteed at signing. Some security for the new Indy starter.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 2, 2019
Indy signed Brissett to a two-year, $30-million contract extension. Of that total, $20 million is guaranteed money. That’s a sign of confidence, and good pay for a guy who is a career 5-12 as an NFL starter.
Reasons To Believe In Brissett
On the surface, following a legacy of Peyton Manning and Luck at QB looks to be a recipe for disaster. Indy has been spoiled under center with franchise QBs at the helm for over two decades.
Brissett, though, is much better set up to succeed as Indy’s QB this season than he was in 2017 when he replaced Luck, who was done for the year with a shoulder injury. That season, Brissett went 4-11 as the starter.
2 years ago, Chris Ballard turned down trade offers for Jacoby Brissett. Last year, Frank Reich said he believed he was a Top 20 QB.
The Colts' faith in Brissett has never wavered.
"He's the man, he's our answer," Reich said Sunday.
"He will not flinch," Ballard added.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 2, 2019
The Colts had just acquired Brissett from the New England Patriots shortly before the start of that season, so he was seeking to learn the Indy offense on the fly. He was sacked an NFL-high 52 times.
The line in front of him and the team around him is much different this year. Indy’s offensive line is among the NFL’s best, allowing a league-low 18 sacks last season. Brissett has an All-Pro tight end in Eric Ebron, who’s coming off a career year.
Frank Reich pulled Jacoby Brissett aside for an hour-long meeting in the last week about "his role, our team and the situation he's stepping into." Reich, remember, played a key role in helping Nick Foles become Super Bowl MVP just two years back. This situation isn't new to him.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) September 1, 2019
Wide receiver TY Hilton is healthy. He can hand the ball off to Marlon Mack, who also wasn’t there in 2017.
Reich Can Relate
On top of that, Brissett’s coach is an expert in replacing QBs. Frank Reich was the NFL’s super sub as a player. He engineered the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history when he subbed for an injured Jim Kelly with the Buffalo Bills.
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 4, 2019
As offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, Reich oversaw the change from the injured Carson Wentz to Nick Foles en route to Philly’s Super Bowl 52 triumph over the Patriots. Foles ended up as Super Bowl MVP.
The belief is that in Reich’s system, it’s about the play calling. That’s why Foles fit in so seamlessly and the Eagles didn’t miss a beat.
It’s why more are coming to think that Brissett could do the same.
And at +270, it just might be worth an investment.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.