Browns vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay for Monday Night Football (Week 13)

• The Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football this evening (Dec. 2)
• The Broncos can take a stranglehold on the last AFC Wild Card spot with a win
• See a three-leg, +101 Browns vs Broncos same-game parlay for MNF

Pegged with a preseason win total of just 5.5 games, the Denver Broncos (7-5, 3-2 home, 9-3 ATS) have a strong argument for biggest overachievers this season, and Sean Payton’s team can take a stranglehold on the final playoff berth in the AFC with another win tonight against the Cleveland Browns (3-8, 1-4 away, 4-7 ATS) on Monday Night Football (8:15 pm ET). Denver is a 6.5-point favorite in Monday’s NFL odds and I have crafted a three-leg Browns vs Broncos same-game parlay.

Browns vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay

Altogether, the three legs of this CLE vs DEN SGP add up to +101 odds.

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Browns vs Broncos SGP Pick #1:

It’s taken me a while to come around to this opinion but I’m now convinced that the Broncos are pretty damn good. Not only do they sit seventh in the league in DVOA and have a +62 point differential (eight points better than the Kansas City Chiefs) but they’re also playing a Browns team that sits literally dead-last in DVOA and has an -81 point differential.

The main reason I feel confident in  a Denver victory is the defense. The Broncos grade out as the fifth-best defense overall at PFF, while the Browns have the #29 offense and are averaging just 16.9 PPG.

Yes, the Browns are coming off an impressive 24-19 home victory over the Steelers, but that was at home in near-white-out conditions. In other words, don’t expect the success to be replicated. The temperatures will be low at Mile High but the skies will be clear. I’m not going as far as my colleague Chris Amberley, who picked Denver to cover in his Browns vs Broncos prediction, but I feel very confident in the Broncos moneyline as the first leg tonight.

CLE vs DEN Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Bo Nix Over 174.5 Passing Yards

The second leg is a very achievable 175 passing yards for rookie QB Bo Nix. Nix had his share of struggles early in the year. His first four games included a 138-yard performance against the Seahawks (on a staggering 42 pass attempts) and a 60-yard performance against the Jets (on 25 pass attempts).

But the Oregon/Auburn product has hit his stride lately. He’s thrown for at least 215 yards in each of his last five games, averaging 260.4 YPG in that span. The last two weeks, he threw for a career-high 307  yards against the Falcons during a 38-6 rout, and 273 yards against the Raiders in a 29-19 win.

Now is a great time to board the Nix wagon.

Browns vs Broncos SGP Pick #3: Courtland Sutton Over. 39.5 Receiving Yards

As Nix has prospered, so has his WR1 Courtland Sutton. Sutton has 744 yards in 12 games, which only averages out to 62 yards per game. But as you might expect, Nix’s prolific last five weeks has meant much bigger numbers for Sutton.

The SMU alum has reached at least 70 yards in five straight, including his first two 100-yard games of the season.

The strength of the Browns defense is on the ground. They rate as the second-best rush defense as PFF but just second-worst coverage unit.

There’s a good chance that Nix and Sutton have monster games – John Hyslop included Sutton over 69.5 yards (+116) among his best Browns vs Broncos player props – but I’m going to stick with these low alt-totals while still getting today’s SGP into plus-money.