Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Odds, Picks & Lines for Week 18 Sunday Night Football
- Week 18 Sunday Night Football wraps up the season with Miami hosting Buffalo on January 7, 2023
- Buffalo can clinch their fourth straight AFC East title with a win
- Get the Bills vs Dolphins odds, picks and predictions for SNF here
The NFL regular season concludes on Sunday Night Football with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East divisional rivalry with all sorts of playoff implications. Miami can finish as high as the #2 seed or as low as the #6 seed, while Buffalo can finish #2 or even potentially even miss out on the NFL playoff bracket entirely. It’s Buffalo favored by 2.5 points in the Bills vs Dolphins odds.
Read on for the full Buffalo vs Miami odds and our top Bills vs Dolphins prediction here.
Bills vs Dolphins Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | -2.5 (-120) | -145 | Over 48.5 (-105) |
| Miami | +2.5 (+100) | +125 | Under 48.5 (-115) |
The Bills are 2.5-point road favorites and -145 on the moneyline giving them an implied win probability of 59.18. Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game with a total just shy of 50 points at 48.5. Odds at ESPN BET.
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How to Watch Buffalo vs Miami on SNF
Viewers in the United States can watch this Buffalo vs Miami game on Sunday Night Football on NBC, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.
Bills vs Dolphins Head-to-Head History
Earlier this season the Bills coasted to victory winning 48-20 in Buffalo. Josh Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns, of which 120 and three went to Stefon Diggs.
They also won 2/3 games last year but by smaller margins of two, three and three points. But that only tells a small part of Buffalo’s recent domination in this AFC East rivalry as the Bills have won 10/11 and 12/14 of the recent meetings.
Bills vs Dolphins Public Betting Trends
In NFL public betting, the public is lining up on the side of the underdog Dolphins with over 60% of the money and bets coming on Miami in spread betting as of this writing. The money has been nearly split down the middle on the moneyline, but the bet percentages are nearing 70% on the Bills moneyline. There’s no divide on the total with over 90% of the bets and money coming in on the Over.
Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo got the win last week at home over New England 27-21 but it was anything but easy. In fact, if not for three interceptions by Bailey Zappe and a missed field goal from Chad Ryland, the result could’ve been much different. New England had more total yards, more passing yards and a better yards per play average while holding Allen to just 169 yards passing, with zero touchdowns and one interception.
No Bills rusher had more than 48 yards (James Cook) and no receiver had more than 87 yards (Dalton Kincaid).
Buffalo’s only loss in their past six games came on the road in Philadelphia where they lost 37-34 in overtime. Otherwise they’ve had impressive wins over the Jets, Chiefs and Cowboys, but needed a late field goal to edge past the Chargers 24-22 in Week 16.
No big deal, just the AFC East on the line 🍿
📺: #BUFvsMIA — Sunday 8:20pm ET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ajuwxeAbp5— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2024
Dolphins Betting Preview
Miami came into Week 17 on a two-game winning streak and off an impressive 22-20 win over the Cowboys in Week 16. In what looked like a game with great potential between Miami and Baltimore, only one team showed up and it wasn’t the Dolphins. Baltimore jumped out to a 28-13 lead at halftime and coasted to an eventual 56-19 win.
The Ravens put up nearly 500 yards of total offense (491) and averaged 8.9 yards per play. Lamar Jackson threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns, and even backup QB Tyler Huntley made an appearance and threw for a touchdown in his only pass of the game.
Will Tyreek Hill break Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 receiving yards? #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/qMG8tJ10Ez
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 2, 2024
Bills vs Dolphins Injury Report
It’s Miami dealing with more serious injury news ahead of this game. LB Bradley Chubb tore his ACL last week and will be a longterm injury, while CB Xavien Howard hurt his foot and is out for Sunday’s game. QB Tua Tagovailoa injured his shoulder last game and was questionable but has been removed from the injury report.
Miami also sees RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle questionable, while WR Tyreek Hill is not on the injury report but did leave practice in a boot during the week to attend to a fire at this home. So clearly, both physically and mentally, he may not be in top form. He is though chasing down the all-time record for receiving yards, being 247 yards back of equalling Calvin’s Johnson’s record. It’s a longshot and his receiving total is set at 92.5 in the Bills vs Dolphins props.
For Buffalo, while not considered to be serious, Allen suffered a stinger last week in Buffalo’s win over the Pats but is good to go. Otherwise, C Mitch morse is questionable with an illness.
Bills vs Dolphins Head-to-Head Stats
| 10-6 / 6-10 | Record / ATS | 11-5 / 10-6 |
| 6th (26.9) | PPG Scored | 1st (30.1) |
| 5th | YPG Offense | 1st |
| 10th | Passing YPG | 1st |
| 7th | Rushing YPG | 5th |
| 4th (18.6) | PPG Allowed | 21st (23.1) |
| 10th | YPG Allowed | 9th |
| 7th | Passing YPG Allowed | 12th |
| 15th | Rushing YPG Allowed | 7th |
*Stats heading into Week 18
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
So much is on the line in this game with Miami looking for their first division title since 2008 and Buffalo looking to lock up their fourth straight, while running the risk of potentially not even making the playoffs with a loss.
Miami has been an Over team at 9-7, while Buffalo an Under team at 10-6.
Miami has been money within the division this season at 4-1 ATS, while Buffalo is just 2-3. These divisional trends go back to last season too with Miami tied with San Fran at 10-2 ATS within division for the best mark since 2022. Buffalo comes in at just 4-8. Miami has the second-best mark within division since 2021 at 13-4-1 ATS.
There are a lot of offensive injuries to consider in this game. Miami have a ton. And for Buffalo, while Stefon Diggs is not on the injury report, he was DNP on Friday. Something has to be wrong as he’s only gone over 70 yards once in seven games. He hasn’t even hit 50 yards receiving in any of his last three games.
And then there’s the fact that Buffalo is 11-4 to the Under in their past 15 road games, the highest Under rate of any team in that time.
Bills vs Dolphins Picks: Under 48.5
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
