Chiefs Super Bowl 52 Odds Continue to Fall; Vikings Reach New Peak
In case you haven’t been following along, SportsBettingDime.com has been tracking Super Bowl 52 odds from the moment they came available on February 5th. We updated the odds following each major event during the NFL offseason, and have been providing a weekly update since the 2017 NFL season kicked off.
Week 12 of the 2017 season is in the books, and even though the results were pretty chalky, we still saw some major movement in the odds to win Super Bowl 52 at a lot of the top sports betting sites. Here are the biggest changes worth discussing.
Chiefs’ Super Bowl 52 Odds Fading Fast
After handing the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots a royal a**-whooping to open the season, and following it up by winning their next four games, the Kansas City Chiefs looked poised to seize the AFC for the first time in franchise history. (Their two previous Super Bowl appearances came before the AFL and NFL merger.) Their average odds to win Super Bowl 52 were as short as +630 on October 10, with sportsbooks offering them at +500. However, plenty has changed since Week 5.
With their Week 12 loss to the Buffalo Bills (16-10), the Chiefs have now lost five of their last six and only hold a one-game lead over the Chargers and Raiders in the AFC West. As you see in the graphic above, Kansas City’s average odds to win Super Bowl 52 have been trending in the wrong direction for a handful of weeks now. But they saw dramatic increases of +700 and +600 over the last 14 days, landing them at an average of +2300 to win Super Bowl 52.
If you are of the mindset that now is the time to jump on the Chiefs, the best place to do it would be where they are offered at +3300 — up from +1800 before Week 12. Some betting sites have not reacted so harshly to the Chiefs struggles: with some books still listing the Chiefs at +1800 to win Super Bowl 52.
EXPERT ADVICE: While there certainly is some value out there with the Chiefs, I’d stay away for now. Alex Smith is no longer playing anywhere near MVP level, and Andy Reid’s usage of Kareem Hunt is simply puzzling. The Chiefs have only managed 36 points over the last three weeks, and these offensive struggles have come against some pretty weak defenses: Bills (17th in points allowed), Giants (22nd in points allowed), and Cowboys (24th in points allowed).
It’s looking very likely the Chiefs will have to go on the road in the playoffs, and the New England Patriots are a much different team right now than they were Week 1.
Vikings’ Super Bowl 52 Odds Reach New Peak
The Minnesota Vikings recorded their seventh consecutive victory on Thanksgiving, defeating the Detroit Lions, 30-23. Minnesota’s record now sits at 9-2, and they remain just one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles for the top seed in the NFC. The impressive winning streak has resulted in sports betting sites continuing to shorten Minnesota’s odds to win Super Bowl 52, with their average odds landing at +930 this week. Some sportsbooks have the Vikings at just +750, while some aren’t as high on Minnesota, keeping them at +1200.
EXPERT ADVICE: Now is not the time to jump on the Vikings to win Super Bowl 52. After just playing in Detroit, Mike Zimmer’s squad will stay on the road for the next two weeks, and have to deal with the 7-4 Falcons and 8-3 Panthers. Since 2014, when Zimmer took over as head coach, the Vikings are 13-15 straight up on the road, and 7-12 straight up as a road underdog. They are three-point dogs in Atlanta this Sunday.
It’s likely Minnesota loses at least one of those two games, resulting in their odds to win Super Bowl 52 getting a little longer. So I’m not saying the Vikings are a bad bet to win the Super Bowl, rather they’ll likely present more value in a week or two.
Falcons Climbing Back into Contention
Coming off an impressive 34-31 victory in Seattle, the Falcons took care of business at home in Week 12 against the Jameis Winston-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers, dominating their NFC South rivals, 34-20. What is most encouraging about the win, though, is that the Falcons finally remembered they have Julio Jones, arguably the most dominant wide receiver in the game, on their team. Jones racked up a whopping 253 receiving yards and two touchdowns against a weak Bucs secondary.
Now that the AFC East is out of Atlanta’s way, the defending NFC champions are beginning to show glimpses of that dominant offense we saw a year ago. Matt Ryan and the Falcon offense have scored a total of 95 points over the last three weeks, and have done so without Devonta Freeman for the vast majority of it.
The Falcons’ three-game winning streak has resulted in their odds to win Super Bowl 52 returning closer to where they were to open the season (+1400 now). After a Week 9 loss to the Panthers (their fourth loss in five games), their odds reached an average of +2800.
EXPERT ADVICE: Though the value is there, it is too difficult to trust the Falcons when there are so many stronger teams in the NFC. Atlanta’s 2016 offense had the luxury of staying in the comforts of the Georgia Dome throughout the playoffs, which served as a major factor in reaching Super Bowl 51. But as it currently stands, the Falcons sit three games back of the Eagles for the top seed in the NFC, and both the Panthers and Saints sit above them in the NFC South. Matt Ryan and company are looking at a much tougher road to the Super Bowl this season, which is why I would stay away from betting them to win it all.
Cowboys’ Super Bowl Hopes Gone(?)
Since Ezekiel Elliott began serving his six-game suspension (Week 10), the Dallas Cowboys have lost three straight games and have been outscored 92-22. Their most recent ugly defeat was a 28-6 Thanksgiving rout at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers (28-6).
Sports betting sites were willing to overlook the beating the Cowboys took from the Falcons in Week 10, when they were also without stud left tackle Tyron Smith. They were also hesitant to call their season over after being embarrassed by the Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. But sportsbooks have finally seen enough, and are all but shutting the door on the Cowboys’ Super Bowl 52 hopes.
The defending NFC East champs face average odds of +11600 to win Super Bowl 52, up from +4700 last week. Some sportsbooks have the Cowboys’ odds listed at +15000, whereas some are holding out a bit of hope, offering Dallas at +8000.
EXPERT ADVICE: It’s over. Please do not be tempted by these long odds. Dallas is two games out of the final Wild Card spot, and still faces the Seahawks and Eagles (in Philadelphia) over the final five weeks. They’ll be lucky to win two games down the stretch.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
