Chiefs vs Bills Same-Game Parlay Picks for Sunday’s NFL Playoffs
- The Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills rounds out the NFL’s Divisional Round on Sunday night
- The Bills are slim 2.5-point home favorites
- See a +385 Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay for Sunday’s game in the frigid conditions at Orchard Park
With the game-time temperature expected to be in the low 20s, the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 6-2 away, 10-7-1 ATS) and Buffalo Bills (11-6, 7-2 home, 8-10 ATS) will square off at Highmark Stadium today (6:30 pm ET) with a berth in the AFC Championship Game on the line.
Buffalo has been rolling at home of late and today’s Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay banks on Buffalo continuing that trend.
Chiefs vs Bills Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bills moneyline | -152 |
| James Cook over 18.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Patrick Mahomes under 1.5 passing TDs | +105 |
| Same-Game Parlay Odds | +385 |
The three legs of today’s Chiefs vs Bills SGP add up to a +385 price tag, meaning a $100 wager would net a $385 profit. My current NFL same-game parlay account for the season is up +9.23 units for the season after going 1-1 in the Wild-Card round (including hitting on a +399 SGP in Rams vs Lions).
Odds as of Jan. 21 on the FanDuel app. Lock in a FanDuel promo code before betting on Chiefs vs Bills.
Chiefs vs Bills SGP Pick #1: Buffalo Bills Moneyline
The Bills are modest -152 home favorites in Sunday’s NFL odds, and that’s underselling how good Buffalo has been in Orchard Park of late. The Bills have won four straight at home including last week’s 31-17 Wild-Card victory over Pittsburgh. Going back to Week 2, they’re 8-1 at home with 14.7-point average margin of victory.
Buffalo finished the regular season with a point differential that was nearly twice as good as Kansas City (+140 vs +77). They also ranked higher in DVOA (third vs fifth) and graded out significantly better per PFF (91.0, seventh vs 84.0, 11th).
Buffalo has also won two straight over KC (both at Arrowhead) and three of the past four. That includes a 20-17 win in KC in Week 14 (Dec. 10).
Tyler Bass gives the #Bills the lead vs the Chiefs pic.twitter.com/kquRXsJpeD
— Tanner Phifer Highlight Hub – @TannerPhiferNFL (@hub_pf40320) December 11, 2023
KC vs BUF Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Running back James Cook has become an integral part of the Bills passing game this season, piling up 445 yards during the regular season on 44 catches. The FSU product has become a sure-handed safety valve for Josh Allen, catching 82% of his targets.
James Cook Week 14 Highs
🥶 141-total yards
🥶 1-TD
Big W over Chiefs#BillsMafia
pic.twitter.com/243Ra9z7BA— NFL Highs (@frito_paw) December 12, 2023
Cook has had at least three targets in seven of the past eight games, and he absolutely shredded this same Kansas City defense when they met in early December, finishing with 83 receiving yards on five catches.
His receiving-yards total is at an all-too-low 18.5 yards in the Chiefs vs Bills player props, and I will readily add the over to today’s SGP.
Kansas City vs Buffalo SGP Pick #3: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing TDs
The last leg of today’s Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay is Patrick Mahomes to stay under 1.5 touchdown passes, which is priced at -135o/+105u in today’s NFL player props. Supported by one of the worst receiving corps in the league, the KC pivot has only thrown multiple TD passes in one of his past six games.
When he last faced the Bills, Mahomes went just 25-of-43 (58.1 completion percentage) for 271 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Though he did manage two TD passes when the Chiefs and Bills squared off last season (a 24-20 Buffalo win in Kansas City), he connected on only 62.5% of his passes and also threw two picks.
In other words, Mahomes doesn’t have a great history against Buffalo, and he’s coming off a 23-for-41 (56.1%) performance against Miami in similarly cold conditions in the Wild-Card Round.
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
