- The Cincinnati Bengals face the Tennessee Titans to kick-off the Divisional Round (Saturday, Jan. 22nd, 4:30 pm ET)
- Ryan Tannehill averaged 58 more passing yards this season in games that Derrick Henry played
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Bengals-Titans player prop bets
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is upon us. The best weekend in football kicks-off on Saturday (4:30 pm ET, January 22nd), with the Tennessee Titans making their first appearance of the postseason.
Tennessee is expected to have all 22 starters healthy for the first time all season when they face Cincinnati, and will welcome back Derrick Henry to the mix. The NFL’s rushing king from 2019 and 2020 hasn’t played since Week 8, but his return should elevate the entire Titans offense.
You may think it’s counter intuitive, but Henry being back should pave the way for Ryan Tannehill to have a big game. The over on Tannehill’s passing yards prop opened way too low, and while the number has crept up, it’s still a strong enough value to make our player props betting card for our Bengals vs Titans picks.
Bengals vs Titans Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||24.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||277.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +135)|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||21.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||237.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145)|
|Running Backs||Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||16.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)||60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||OFF||78.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105)||OFF|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)||5.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)||76.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||26.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Tee Higgins (CIN)||4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)||63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||23.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)|
|Tyler Boyd (CIN)||4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -175)||45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|C.J. Uzomah (CIN)||3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||32.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|A.J. Brown (TEN)||5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||72.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Julio Jones (TEN)||3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||44.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Nick Westbrook (TEN)||2.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||28.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||15.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Anthony Firkser (TEN)||2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -205)||19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Geoff Swaim (TEN)||1.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)||11.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||OFF|
Tannehill and the Titans are 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals, which is half a point higher than where the line opened. His passing yardage prop meanwhile, opened at 225.5 but was quickly steamed up to 237.5.
Prop #1: Ryan Tannehill Over 237.5 Passing Yards
In eight games with Henry by his side, Tannehill averaged 250.3 passing yards per game. In nine games without Henry, that number dipped to 192.4 passing yards per contest.
A big reason for the discrepancy is the effectiveness of play action with and without Henry. With Henry on the field teams stack the box in an effort to stop him. It makes a defense much more susceptible to getting burned by play action, something that Tannehill does very well.
Ryan Tannehill posted a league-best 91.1 PFF passing grade and averaged 9.8 YPA when facing 8+ defenders in the box with Derrick Henry in action Weeks 1-8
Basically the same rate of these types of dropbacks (20.2% vs 19.6%) rest of season, but grade (76.6) and YPA (7.3) way down
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 19, 2022
The Titans ranked top-12 in the league in passing yards on play action, despite only having Henry for eight games. The Bengals on the other hand, ranked 27th in the NFL at defending play-action, the worst mark of any playoff team this season.
Not only will Tennessee have a healthy Henry, but both AJ Brown and Julio Jones are at full strength as well. With the trio on the field this season, the Titans averaged over 7 yards per play. With one or more missing, their yards per play dips to just over 5.
Pick: Ryan Tannehill Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Bengals vs Titans Touchdown Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Anytime TD|
|Derrick Henry (TEN)||+450||-190|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||+650||-105|
|Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)||+800||+130|
|A.J. Brown (TEN)||+900||+140|
|Tee Higgins (CIN)||+1200||+190|
|D’Onta Foreman (TEN)||+1300||+200|
|C.J. Uzomah (CIN)||+1600||+250|
|Julio Jones (TEN)||+1600||+275|
|Tyler Boyd (CIN)||+1700||+275|
|Ryan Tannehill (TEN)||+1800||+290|
|Nick Westbrook (TEN)||+2000||+300|
|Anthony Firkser (TEN)||+2500||+400|
|Samaje Perine (CIN)||+2800||+450|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||+3000||+500|
|Geoff Swaim (TEN)||+3000||+500|
|Dontrell Hilliard (TEN)||+3500||+600|
Prop #2: Derrick Henry to Score 1st TD
As mentioned, Henry played in just eight games yet still led Tennessee with 10 TDs. That was five more than any other skill position player, and the only Titan with more than 5 touchdowns was Tannehill with 7. With Henry back in the mix, we know exactly where the ball is going when Tennessee reaches the red zone.
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) January 20, 2022
Only 17 running backs had more carries this season inside the opponent’s 20 than Henry, despite all the time he missed. +450 is an awfully short price to pay, but considering he’s -190 to score at any point, it doesn’t seem so bad.
Speaking of anytime touchdowns, don’t sleep on Tyler Boyd. Cincy’s slot receiver has found the endzone in four straight games, while Tennessee ranked last this season at defending the slot. +275 for him to score a TD is a great price.
Picks: Derrick Henry 1st TD (+450), Tyler Boyd Anytime TD (+275)