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NFL Divisional Round Line Movement, Updated NFL Playoff Betting Odds and Spreads – Chiefs Shorten to 1.5-Point Pick Over Bills

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 20, 2022 · 1:17 PM PST

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates as he runs off the field after an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the New England Patriots, Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
  • The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs gets underway on Saturday, January 22 with two games on tap
  • Which betting line has moved the most since opening? What’s the smallest spread of the week?
  • All of the wagering information on every NFL Divisional Round game is listed below

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us. From a betting standpoint, there are intriguing matchups to look at in both conferences.

In Kansas City, the Chiefs are playing host to the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. At Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers are clashing with the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of the 2020 NFC Championship Game.

In fact, all of the teams that played in the last two Super Bowls are still alive in this season’s postseason.

NFL Divisional Round Odds

Matchup Opening Spread Current Spread Opening Total Current Total
Bengals vs Titans TEN-3 TEN -3.5 47.5 47
49ers vs Packers GB -5 GB-5.5 47 47
Rams vs Buccaneers TB -3 TB -3 48 48.5
Bills vs Chiefs KC -2.5 KC -1.5 53 54.5

Odds as of January 20th at FanDuel

Which games are looking to be the biggest movers and shakers in NFL Divisional Round line movement? Let’s check that out. First, though, here’s how the NFL odds are moving for the four NFL Divisional Round playoff games.

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Will Packers Cool Off 49ers?

Green Bay and San Francisco were two of the NFL’s hottest teams entering postseason play. The Packers were 6-2 over their last eight regular-season games. The 49ers concluded the regular season on a 7-2 run.

They’ve met eight times in the playoffs. Green Bay won the first three games. San Francisco was victorious in four of five games since, including the three more recent contests.

This game opened with the biggest spread of any Divisional Round game. The Packers were a 5-point pick. It has since grown to Green Bay-5.5 and is the biggest spread among any of this weekend’s four games.

In three previous postseason clashes at Lambeau Field, the Packers easily covered that margin in the first two meetings. Green Bay won 35-14 in 1997 and 25-15 in 2002. However, the last time the Niners played on the frozen tundra, they upset the Packers 23-20 in 2014.

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Offensive Fireworks Anticipated in KC

During the Josh Alllen-Patrick Mahomes era, the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have faced each other three times. Two of those games were played at KC’s GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium and ended up burning out the bulbs on the scoreboard.

That’s being expected again this weekend as these two explosive offenses are once more clashing at Arrowhead.

In a Week 5 meeting this season on October 10, the Bills belted the Chiefs 38-20. That allowed them to inch past the total of 57 points.

Interestingly, when Buffalo played at Kansas City in last season’s AFC title game, the total was 54.5 points. KC won 38-24 as the over again hit. That’s the exact same number oddsmakers have assigned to this game, and it’s far and away the biggest total of the Divisional Round.

Kansas City-Buffalo the Closest Call

The Chiefs are a 1.5-point home favorite over the Bills. That’s the smallest spread of the Divisional Round.

Kansas Ctiy is 5-0 against the spread in each of the club’s last five games. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS over the last four road games.

Kansas City covered as a betting favorite in both of last season’s games against Buffalo. However, earlier this season as the 3-point home chalk, the Chiefs lost outright to the Bills.

KC is a middling 5-5 against the spread as a home favorite this season. Buffalo is 2-1 ATS as an away underdog.

Two Games Tie for Tiny Total

Considering there are just four games taking place this weekend, it’s somewhat impressive that the two of them are showing identical total numbers. Both the 49ers-Packers and Cincinnati Bengals-Tennessee Titans contests are listed with a total of 47 points. That’s the lowest number assigned to the Divisional Round Games.

Green Bay-San Francisco opened at 47 points and stayed there. The Cincinnati-Tennessee line has shortened from an opening total of 47.5 points, even though the Titans are welcoming back RB Derrick Henry.

That these teams aren’t expected to score a bunch isn’t surprising. Although it’s close, all four of them have gone under more than over this season.

The home teams, Tennessee and Green Bay, are each 8-9 on the total this season. Visitors Cincinnati and San Francisco are 8-10. The Titans are 2-7 on the total at home this season. Green Bay is 4-4. The Bengals have gone over an NFL-low two times in eight road games. San Francisco is 4-6 on the total as a road team.

Oddsmakers Not Going to Kansas City

Fats Domino may have been going to Kansas City but oddsmakers are more inclined to be leaning toward Buffalo. The Chiefs opened as the 2.5-point pick over the Bills. That’s since shortened to KC -1.5, creating the biggest spread move of the Divisional Round.

Public money in the NFL betting trends is slightly favoring the Chiefs. There’s 52% of handle and 54% of bets backing Kansas City in point spread wagering.

The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in their last five home playoff games. They are 4-1 ATS in those five games.

The Bills are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games they’ve played at Kansas City. As far as KC is concerned, the Chiefs are 7-2 ATS over the past seven games.

Expecting a Big Number in the Bills vs Chiefs Total

One thing about the Bills – when they win, they win big. All 12 of Buffalo’s victories this season have been by margins of 12 points or greater.

The Bills are the NFL’s #3 scoring offense this season, averaging 28.4 points per game. Kansas City (28.2 ppg) is #4.

Twelve of Kansas Ctiy’s games this season were assigned totals of 50 points or higher. The Chiefs went over in seven of them. Three Bills games were given totals of 50 or greater. Buffalo went over in all three of them.

The total has gone over in four of the last five games Buffalo has played at Kansas City. No wonder then that this game is producing the largest total move of the Divisional Round, jumping from 53 to 54.5 points.

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