Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today – Best Bets for July 4

• Berrettini is my top moneyline pick on Saturday
• Zverev is too expensive on the moneyline, so I’m attacking game spread
• See my top three Wimbledon picks for July 4

The Wimbledon men’s singles Round of 32 continues on July 4 with another packed grass-court slate. The board opens with Alex de Minaur vs Zachary Svajda at 6:00 am ET and runs through the two primetime matches at 11:30 am ET: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini, and Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik.

The table below lists my three best Wimbledon bets for July 4, with the best-available odds and the source for each number. After the table, I break down why each bet made the card.

Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today (July 4)

My three Wimbledon best bets for July 4 are all sourced from prediction site Kalshi.

Matteo Berrettini is my top pick. Alexander Zverev’s spread offers a better entry point than his massive moneyline. And Frances Tiafoe is my choice in a near-pick’em matchup with Alexander Bublik.

My picks for Thursday went just 1-2, but for the tournament as a whole, I’m still 9-6 (+2.51 units on one-unit wagers).

Dimitrov vs Berrettini Prediction: Berrettini Moneyline (-122 / 55¢ at Kalshi)

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Dimitrov vs Berrettini Pick

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Kalshi

Matteo Berrettini to Win

56%

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Berrettini is the player I want at the current number. The best sportsbook price on Berrettini’s moneyline is shorter than the Kalshi price, which makes the 55-cent Kalshi price the preferred way to play him.

The recent grass form helps the case. Berrettini has already won twice at Wimbledon, beating Stan Wawrinka in four sets and Arthur Fils in four sets, and those are exactly the types of matches that show why his serve-first profile travels so well on grass. He also has a strong recent grass sample from last season: he beat Marton Fucsovics at Wimbledon, took Jannik Sinner to four tight sets, and put together a Stuttgart run that included wins over Roman Safiullin, Denis Shapovalov, James Duckworth and Lorenzo Musetti before a three-set final loss to Jack Draper.

Dimitrov has also handled business through two Wimbledon rounds, beating D. Sweeny in straight sets and Jakub Mensik in four. But his broader recent form is more uneven. He lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Mallorca, lost to Kyrian Jacquet at the Dublin Challenger, and had a long run of spring losses across clay and hard courts before finding more traction on grass.

The ranking profile points toward Berrettini as the more reliable favorite. He enters at No. 51 in the ATP singles rankings with 985 points, while Dimitrov is No. 146 with 407 points. Rankings are not everything on grass, but that gap matters when the market is still giving us a relatively modest price.

The Elo numbers back that up. Berrettini is No. 35 overall in Elo at 1831.4 and No. 24 in grass Elo at 1739.0. Dimitrov is No. 79 overall at 1743.5 and No. 51 on grass at 1661.9. That gives Berrettini an 87.9-point overall Elo edge and a 77.1-point grass-specific edge, which supports him as the rightful favorite at this price.

The matchup also fits Berrettini’s strengths. His serve and forehand are the two weapons I trust most on a quick lawn. Dimitrov’s slice, movement and variety can make this uncomfortable, which is why I prefer the moneyline instead of laying games. I do not need Berrettini to win by a clean margin; I only need his serve-plus-one pattern to hold up across best-of-five sets.

At 55¢, the price is good enough for Berrettini to be my top moneyline play of the day.

Giron vs Zverev Prediction: Zverev -6.5 Games (+113 / 47¢ at Kalshi)

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Giron vs Zverev Pick

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Alexander Zverev -6.5 Games

47%

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Zverev is an enormous favorite to beat Giron, but the moneyline is not the right way to play this matchup. The best available Zverev moneyline is around -1613 at Bet365, which leaves very little upside. The better betting angle is Zverev -6.5 games at 47¢ at Kalshi, which converts to roughly +113 in American odds.

The ranking gap is massive. Zverev is No. 3 in the ATP rankings with 7,190 points, while Giron is No. 92 with 680 points. That is the kind of mismatch that can support a spread bet rather than a simple match-winner pick.

The recent results also point toward Zverev having enough separation to cover. He has opened Wimbledon with a straight-sets win over Valentin Royer and a four-set win over Alexander Blockx, and his Halle grass tune-up included wins over Vit Kopriva, Yannick Hanfmann and Raphael Collignon before a tight three-set loss to Taylor Fritz. That is a strong grass runway for a top-three player whose serve can create low-stress holds.

The head-to-head history is especially important for the handicap. Zverev beat Giron 6-2, 6-1 on grass in Halle last season, then beat him again at Wimbledon 6-2, 6-1, 6-4. Those two recent grass meetings show exactly why I am comfortable looking past the moneyline and toward margin: when Zverev gets a read on Giron’s serve, the sets can get away from Giron quickly.

Giron deserves credit for reaching this round with wins over Corentin Moutet and Quentin Halys, but his grass lead-in was choppier. He took losses to Jack Draper, Jan Choinski, Ignacio Buse, Rinky Hijikata and Ben Shelton during the grass swing before Wimbledon. That does not mean he cannot compete in stretches, but it does make it harder to trust him to consistently hold serve and stay inside a large number against Zverev.

The Elo gap is even more convincing for a handicap. Zverev is No. 3 overall in Elo at 2099.7 and No. 4 in grass Elo at 1913.6. Giron is No. 95 overall at 1718.2 and No. 90 on grass at 1621.9. That leaves Zverev with a 381.5-point overall Elo advantage and a 291.7-point grass Elo edge, which is strong enough to justify looking for margin instead of laying a massive moneyline.

Zverev’s serve is the foundation of the handicap. On grass, he can stack easy holds, shorten sets, and put constant pressure on Giron’s service games. If Zverev breaks once in each set and avoids loose service games of his own, this number is well within reach.

There is still a real grass-court risk with any -6.5 spread. One tiebreak set can make the cover more difficult, and Giron is capable enough from the baseline to extend patches of the match. But Zverev’s ranking edge, serve quality, recent grass results and prior dominance of this matchup make the plus-money-equivalent price worth taking.

I would not lay the heavy moneyline. I would rather back Zverev to win with margin.

Tiafoe vs Bublik Prediction: Tiafoe Moneyline (-108 / 52¢ at Kalshi)

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Tiafoe vs Bublik Pick

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Kalshi

Frances Tiafoe to Win

52%

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Tiafoe vs Bublik is the most volatile match among my three picks, but Tiafoe is still the side I prefer at -108.

Bublik deserves respect. He is ranked No. 11 with 2,620 points, compared to Tiafoe at No. 19 with 2,180 points. Bublik’s serve, creativity, and willingness to take big cuts can be especially dangerous on grass. If he is dialed in, he can make any match look simple.

The ATP ranking edge belongs to Bublik, but the Elo profile supports Tiafoe. Tiafoe is No. 18 overall in Elo at 1918.0 and No. 9 in grass Elo at 1823.3. Bublik is No. 26 overall at 1889.2 and No. 10 on grass at 1802.0. The margins are not huge, but Tiafoe owns a 28.8-point overall Elo edge and a 21.3-point grass Elo edge, which is enough to support a short favorite price.

The issue is consistency. Bublik’s style can produce spectacular service games and sudden dips in the same set. Tiafoe is the steadier profile for this type of price. His athleticism, return effort, and ability to absorb pace give him a path to drag Bublik into longer exchanges and capitalize when the error count rises.

I am not interested in getting fancy with a spread or same-match combination here. Bublik’s serve makes margin difficult to trust, and this could easily include tiebreaks. The cleanest angle is simply Tiafoe to win the match at the best available moneyline price.

At -108 at Kalshi, Tiafoe is short enough to be playable without forcing an additional leg.

Wimbledon Odds for July 4 (Men’s Singles)

Odds are from WilliamHill, Bet365 and Kalshi as of publication time. In the Moneyline and Game Spread columns, the first number corresponds to the first player listed in the Match column and the second number corresponds to the second player listed.

Bookmark SBD’s odds to win Wimbledon to see tournament outrights after each round.