Dolphins vs Packers Player Props – Best Bets for Thanksgiving Day

• The Dolphins and Packers square off on Thanksgiving Day in primetime
• De’Von Achane has handled 12 or fewer rush attempts in four of his past five games
• Keep reading for the Dolphins vs Packers player prop odds, and best bets below

The Dolphins versus Packers Thanksgiving Day showdown is not only the most compelling matchup on the three-game slate, but it’s also likely to draw the most action. Bettors will be eager to either press their winnings or chase their losses from earlier in the day, and there’s no shortage of markets to wager on. By Thursday, the spread and total markets show little value, but the same cannot be said for the NFL player props. Names like Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs and De’Von Achane will be popular targets to bet on, and we’ve zeroed in on a pair of Achane wagers to headline our Dolphins vs Packers player props card.

Dolphins vs Packers Player Props

Achane currently projects for four less carries than Jacobs, a gap we don’t think is wide enough. The second year back is not a workhorse type like his counterpart, and cedes multiple carries to Raheem Mostert every outing.

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Dolphins vs Packers Prop #1: Devon Achane Rush Attempts and Receptions

There are multiple outs for the under on Achane’s rush attempts to cash. For starters, Miami is a 3.5-point ‘dog in the NFL odds, which suggests a trailing game script. Typically, that means more passing volume, eating into Achane’s work load.

Second, Achane has lacked efficiency this season, averaging almost half as many yards per attempt as last year (4.3 vs 7.8). He’s been far more effective as a pass catcher, averaging 7.3 yards per reception, and the Dolphins would be wise to use him more in that role in this matchup.

Devon Achane Rushing Stats – Last 4 Games

Green Bay has allowed the ninth most receiving yards to enemy backs, and there are few players more dangerous in space than Achane. The Packers run defense on the other hand is trending up, after completely shutting down Christian McCaffrey in Week 12.

Achane has handled 13+ carries in only three of 11 games so far, and this is not the spot to expect him to do so again.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Devon Achane Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-135); risk 1 unit, Over 4.5 Receptions (+115); risk 1 unit

Dolphins vs Packers Prop #2: Jordan Love Rush Attempts

Sticking in the rush attempts market, we’re looking to bet under 2.5 carries for Love. The Packers need improved play from their QB to boost their stock in the Super Bowl odds, but they’ll be leaning on his arm rather than his legs to do so.

Love clearly isn’t healthy after suffering both knee and groin issues already this season, and his willingness to scramble has decreased. He’s rushed 3 or more times in only three games this season, and all three opponents were top-10 in pressure rate. Miami on the other hand, generates pressure at a bottom-7 rate.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jordan Love Under 2.5 Rush Attempts (-115); risk 1 unit

Dolphins vs Packers Touchdown Scorer Props

Shifting to touchdown props, where we can’t pass up the value on Jonnu Smith’s anytime TD odds. He’s +190 to find the end zone, something he’s done three times in the last two weeks.

Smith leads Miami in targets since Week 5, and the matchup is elite. Green Bay’s linebackers are a liability in coverage, allowing the sixth most production to enemy tight ends.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+190); risk 1 unit