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Donald Takes Over as Heavy Favorite for NFL DPOY with Mack Sidelined

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 6:08 PM PDT

Aaron Donald LA Rams
The Rams' Aaron Donald has taken a commanding lead in odds to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. By Keith Allison (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Only three players have won NFL DPOY in back-to-back years. Can Donald be the fourth?
  • Does Chicago’s Khalil Mack still have a chance at the award?
  • Which defensive star offers the best value?

Los Angeles Rams’ DL Aaron Donald has been picking up steam with bettors for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award.

Last year’s winner of the award was still trading at +650 odds as recently as October 25. Those odds have since shortened all the way to -250, making him the clear favorite.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Player Odds
Aaron Donald -250
JJ Watt +400
Khalil Mack +450
Tre’Davious White +2000
Myles Garrett +2000

*For a full list please follow the link in the table

The Bears’ Khalil Mack has seen his odds slip from even-money down to +450. Which player presents the best value to win DPOY?

2023-24 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker
Read More

Will Donald Repeat?

If the 2017 version of Donald was award-worthy, the 2018 one is not far behind.

His 30 combined tackles in nine games is only 11 behind the 41 he posted a season ago. Even more impressive is the rate to which he’s sacking opposing quarterbacks.

He’s currently only one sack behind last year’s total of 11, which is also his career-high. At this rate, he’s on pace to shatter his career records.

Donald is currently only one sack behind last year’s total of 11, which is also his career-high.

Donald has proven every bit worthy of the new six-year $135 million ($87 million guaranteed) contract extension he signed at the end of August. Pro Football Focus have him ranked with the top grades for interior defenders and with a higher pressure rate than either of his past two seasons.

Donald vs Mack Season Stats

Aaron Donald
VS
Khalil Mack
30 Tackles 20
10.0 Sacks 5.0
0 INTs 1
1 Forced Fumbles 4
1 Pass Def 2

Can Mack Regain Favorite Status?

Once the favorite to win the award after his strong start to the season with the Bears, Khalil Mack has fallen out of favor with bettors having missed the past two weeks due to injury.

The Bears are expected to welcome back their star edge rusher this week though against the Lions, where he could be in for another big performance.

Mack made an immediate impact once joining the Bears with 17 combined tackles, five sacks, one INT (returned for a TD), and four forced fumbles in his first four games.

His production tailed off his following two games before he found himself on the injury report in Weeks 8 and 9.

Will Either Win DPOY?

As things stand it’s really tough to not see the reigning DPOY take home the award once again in 2018.

Barring injury, Donald will blow away his numbers from last season which would make it next to impossible for him not to win.

But remember how fast odds can adjust.

We’ve seen it already between Donald and Mack. Could we see another odds adjustment if Donald were to miss time? I like his chances but personally it’s tough to swallow laying -250 when only two weeks ago you could’ve had +650.

So I want to make a case for both Mack and one other player at longer odds.

Assuming Mack returns this week, he has a chance to make a serious impact over the remaining eight games. Every team the Bears face, except the LA Rams, currently rank 18th or lower in sacks allowed.

In the Giants and 49ers, he’ll go up against two teams currently tied in 29th at protecting their QB. Big things could be in store for Mack down the stretch.

One more player who doesn’t even appear in the chart earlier in this article is Vikings’ DE Danielle Hunter.

Hunter was just named NFL Defensive Player of the Week for his 3.5 sacks, nine tackles for loss, four pressures, and fumble recovery that he returned for a touchdown. The fourth-year player has 43 combined tackles, leads the league with 11.5 sacks and still has odds of +2000.

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