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NFL Draft Props – Mr Irrevelant, Over/Under on Player Positions and More

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 24, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

Hendon Hooker throwing pass
Nov 19, 2022; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) passes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
  • Books have released a wide selection of props for the 2023 NFL Draft
  • You can bet on how many offensive/defensive players will be taken in the First Round
  • We have the best bet for each prop available – read below

Perhaps no player had us talking about Mr Irrelevant more than 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.

The final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy was thrust into starting role when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a foot injury in Week 14. Jimmy G was already in the starter’s role when Trey Lance broke his foot early in the season.

Purdy didn’t disappoint, becoming the only Mr Irrelevant pivot to start and win a playoff game. In eight starts (5 regular season, 3 playoffs), he ranked third in QBR, fifth in completion percentage (67.4%) and his 14 TD tosses were third.

In fact, his elbow injury in the NFC Title game is what many consider the the reason ‘Frisco missed out on the Super Bowl.

Who Wil be the Next Mr Irrelevant?

There’s been some push to remove this title, but for now, it will remain the crown given to the last player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.

It all gets underway Thursday, April 27 at 8pm ET, from Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri, the first time the city or state has featured the event. Rounds 2-3 will run on April 28 beginning at 7pm ET, while the final three rounds go Saturday (April 29) beginning at noon ET.

There are a bevy of viewing spots: ESPN, ABC and the NFL Network will all provide coverage, and you can also stream through fuboTV.

Don’t forget to follow our NFL Draft Tracker.

For our purposes, let’s run down some of the NFL Draft props worth considering, beginning with Mr Irrelevant.

Mr Irrelevant Odds

Final Pick of the NFL Draft Odds
Offensive Player or Kicker -125
Defensive Player or Punter -105

Odds as of April 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Perhaps the only other person you’ve heard of taken in this position was kicker Ryan Succup, drafted by KC in 2009. He played last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and was released after this season.

It’s a mixed bag with this pick. Since 2000, the most selected position has been tight end, selected five times, while linebackers, wide receivers and defensive backs have been selected four times each.

Three QB’s, two d-linemen and a kicker round out the 23. It’s slight, but the offensive players and kickers have been selected 13 times to the defensive player and punters’ 10. We’ll play the percentages here.

Pick: Offensive Player or Kicker (-125)

Over/Under Offensive & Defensive Players Selected in 1st Round

Position Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Offensive Players 16.5 -130 +100
Defensive Players 14.5 +100 -130

Odds as of April 24 at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Looking at NFL Draft picks in the first round over the last six seasons, it’s been relatively close, with offensive players leading the way twice (2021 and 2018), defensive players topping the first round twice (2019 and 2017), while it was split down the middle with 16 apiece in last year’s draft 2022 and 2020.

This season, most mock drafts have them split down the middle again. While the quarterbacks have taken over much of the spotlight in the NFL Draft projections, there’s a bevy of very good defensive players in the field, headlined by Alabaman’s Will Anderson Jr.

It’s in the middle of the draft where much of the defensive talent shines, as plug-and-play types are ready to step in and make an impact, with as many as 13 defensive picks projected inside picks 16-30.

Mock drafts can easily be mocked post-draft, but in this instance, we’re liking the over odds for the defense.

Pick: Defensive Players Over 14.5 (+100)

Over/Under Number of Players Selected by Position in 1st Round

Position Projection Over Odds Under Odds
Quarterback 4.5 -115 -115
Running Back 1.5 +280 -360
Wide Receiver 3.5 -120 -110

We know it’s Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis who’ve been dangled in any which order among the top-3, with Levis drifting somewhere inside the top 10.  The key is Tennessee pivot Hendon Hooker, who could slide into the back half of the first round, or could mess up my betting ticket by getting taken as a lauded value pick in Round 2.

The only sure thing here is Bijan Robinson being the only running back chosen in the First Round. Thank experts decaying this as a waste or draft capital — where are more Jerry Jones’ when you need them? — but no other back is even sniffing a Round 1 projection.

Where you can make hay is at wide receiver, as a pass catcher or two could be more valued by one team more than another. Right now, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers are on almost every mock draft board. Depending where you look, Jalin Hyatt and Quentin Johnston crash the first round party. That’s enough value for us here.

Pick: Wide Receiver OVER 3.5 (-120)

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