Expert Divisional Round Playoffs NFL Picks Against the Spread
- This week our Divisional Round Playoffs NFL ATS picks see selections on every one of the eight different teams in action
- Our expert picks are lining up on ether side of Sunday’s huge Chiefs vs Bills matchup
- Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread for every game here
With only four games to choose from in this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread, we’ve still managed to get ATS best bets from a variety of games, teams and angles this weekend. Read on to see our top Divisional Round ATS picks here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens -9.5 | Lions -6 | Texans 1H +5.5 |
| Buccaneers +6.5 | Packers +9.5 | 49ers -9.5 |
| Bills -2.5 | Bills -2.5 | Chiefs +2.5 |
| Regular Season Record: 24-27-3 | Regular Season Record: 17-33-4 | Regular Season Record: 26-26-2 |
| Playoff Record: (2-1-0) | Playoff Record: (2-1-0) | Playoff Record: (2-1-0) |
Last week the team collectively went 6-3 in NFL Playoffs NFL ATS picks. Will the Bills at -2.5 get two of our tipsters an ATS win this week?
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Ryan Metivier
Ravens (-9.5)
Rookie quarterbacks playing in Baltimore with John Harbaugh as head coach have not faired well, going 2-17 SU historically. Lamar Jackson has not had much success in the playoffs or as a big favorite, but then only six of CJ Stroud’s 23 regular season touchdown passes came on the road this season. Stroud also loses another receiver this week as WR Noah Brown was placed on the IR with a shoulder injury.
The Ravens have risen to every challenge this season and have already smacked around some of the league’s top teams beating the Lions 38-6, 49ers 33-19 and Dolphins 56-19.
This game could have some winter weather concerns, and if that happens, it gives me more confidence in backing the better running team.
Buccaneers (+6.5)
We could see points scored in this game as both teams own better run than pass defenses. In fact, both teams’ pass defenses are rather poor, with the Lions ranking 27th and the Bucs 29th after the regular season.
The Lions were the only team to win and not cover in last week’s Wild Card Playoffs, and scored just three second-half points in a 23-22 win over the Rams. Sure, the Eagles quit, but Tampa is coming off a 32-9 route of Philly.
The Buccaneers are riding a 6-1 streak SU, are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog, plus Baker Mayfield is 27-21 ATS as a dog in his career and 7-1 ATS in that role in his past eight.
Baker Mayfield's heating up the passing game at the right time. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/f5RIRfRghk
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 19, 2024
Bills (-2.5)
It’s uncharted waters for Patrick Mahomes to be on the road in the playoffs. In fact, outside of neutral field games in the Super Bowl, he’s never done it.
That doesn’t mean he and the Chiefs can’t get the win, but we’ve already seen the Chiefs lose to the Bills this season and in Kansas City, when Buffalo won 20-17 in Week 14.
Now the Chiefs travel to windy, snowy, cold Buffalo to face a Bills team that is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games and looking to avenge back-to-back playoff losses versus the Chiefs the last time these teams have met in playoff games. Overall, Buffalo has won three of the past four though against KC and this home playoff game against a Chiefs team that has looked as beatable as they have looked in the Patrick Mahomes era, is the moment for Buffalo to exorcise some playoff demons.
SPORTSBOOK
Bob Duff
Lions (-6)
You have to go all the way back to 1957 to find an NFL postseason in which the Detroit Lions won two games. That’s also the most recent season in which the Lions won an NFL title, so the omens could be piling up quickly in the Motor City should Detroit beat Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers turned in a dominant defensive performance during their Wild Card Weekend win over the Eagles. And Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS as an away underdog this season. But the Detroit offensive line is strong when it comes to protecting QB Jared Goff. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield won’t be able to match the Detroit points output with his offensive unit. In Week 6, Detroit won 20-6 at Tampa Bay.
Packers (+9.5)
The 49ers were off last week after earning the bye as the NFC’s top seed. San Francisco rested many players the previous week in the regular-season finale against the Rams. Now they’ve got to ramp it up against a Green Bay squad that’s been steamrolling opponents.
The Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Take Green Bay to cover.
Jordan Love is the only QB to have three 90+ PFF grades since week 13 🤯📈
Hot streak 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RLhRwfVFQe
— PFF GB Packers (@PFF_Packers) January 19, 2024
Bills (-2.5)
Written off when they were 6-6, the Buffalo Bills have won six games in a row since then. They’re 4-2 ATS during that six-game streak. One of those six wins was a 20-17 win at Kansas City.
The Bills have twice lost to Kansas City in the NFL playoffs in recent years. But this year, they’re the team on a roll coming into this postseason clash.
Zach Reger
Texans 1H (+5.5)
CJ Stroud and the Texans have been red hot of late and that should continue into this game against Baltimore. The Ravens’ starters have been off for two weeks, so they will be sluggish to start this game. That compared with Stroud wanting to get revenge over their Week 1 loss at Baltimore, the Texans will keep this game close in the first half.
Houston’s defense has been strong, so they will see success early in the contest. The Ravens are much more talented on both sides of the ball, so they will more than likely pull away in the second half, but the more confident bet comes in on the Texans to keep it close in the first half.
49ers (-9.5)
Jordan Love and the Packers offense have been great, but the 49ers defense will be their toughest test by far. They are strong against the run, so Green Bay will have a tougher time setting up their play action that has been a big cause for their success. Even if San Francisco comes out slow to start the game, they have the firepower to score quickly.
Green Bay’s defense has struggled, and Dallas’s mistakes helped them out last week. the 49ers should score in bunches, and the Packers will not be able to keep up. The 49ers win big and advance to the NFC Championship yet again for my NFL picks against the spread this weeekend.
Chiefs (+2.5)
While this has not been the same Chiefs team from years past, Patrick Mahomes is 10-5 against the spread in the playoffs and is 12-3 straight up. Mahomes is also great as an underdog, as he is 9-2-1 against the number in his career.
The Bills are hot and are hungry to beat Kansas City in the playoffs, but I like getting the underdog in what should be a tough, low-scoring game. Mahomes is 2-0 straight up and against the spread against Josh Allen in the playoffs, and the weather will not be a factor as Kansas City just played (and won) in one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history. Give me the points in what should be an exciting game.
Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
