Expert Picks, Splits & Starters for Commanders/Lions

• The Lions are 1.5-point favorites over the Commanders in NFL Preseason action today
• Jared Goff won’t play for Detroit, while Jayden Daniels could see a series for Washington
• See the expert picks, splits and starters for Commanders/Lions, below

We’ve got a Noon NFL Preseason kickoff today, as the Lions host the Commanders in Detroit. Washington opened its preseason with a victory over the Dolphins last week, while the Lions began their exhibition schedule with a loss to the Bengals. Online sportsbooks and prediction markets are siding with Detroit by a razor thin margin in the latest NFL odds, but I’m more interested in attacking the 36.5-point total.

The action is set to get underway at Ford Field in Detroit, MI, with the team’s regional broadcast networks providing the TV coverage. Keep reading for the expert picks, splits and starters for Commanders/Lions, below.

Odds for Commanders/Lions

Odds as of Saturday, Aug. 22nd. Get the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on NFL Preseason today.

As of the time of writing, there isn’t much difference between the odds at commercial sportsbooks and prediction markets in the moneyline and spread markets. When it comes to the total however, Kalshi is currently hanging a 36.5-point line, which is a point higher than the standard books. That makes them the place to wager at if you have like the under, and I’ll gladly take the extra point of value. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi promo code to get in on the action.

Splits for Commanders/Lions

Shifting over to the NFL public betting splits, where the numbers show my love for the under is a contrarian angle. 60% of the total tickets and 65% of the handle is backing the over right now, meaning I’ll be rooting for a low-scoring game along with the oddsmakers.

Starters for Commanders/Lions

When it comes to the starters for the Commanders/Lions showdown, here’s what we know so far. Detroit will not let its top offensive players see the field. Jared Goff will sit, as will superstars Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Speedster Jameson Williams is nursing an injury and likely won’t play, while number one tight end Sam LaPorta is hurt and may not be ready for the start of the regular season.

The Lions are a strong season-long value in the Odds to Make the NFL Playoffs due to immense offensive talent and a soft schedule, but I don’t expect many points tonight. Josh Dobbs and Luke Altmyer will split QB duties like last week, and the ceiling isn’t high with so many key players on the sidelines.

On the Washington side, it remains unclear four hours before kickoff if Jayden Daniels will play. The former winner in the NFL OROY odds may get a series after sitting out last week, but head coach Dan Quinn has yet to confirm Daniels’ status. Same goes for his top wideouts Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. If they do play, it will be for just a series, with undrafted Sam Hartman and 7th rounder Athan Kaliakmanis taking the rest of the snaps under center.

Expert Picks for Commanders/Lions

• Under 36.5-points (52-cents at Kalshi)

The Commanders are also banged up heading into this game, with Washington backup QB Marcus Mariota out with an MCL sprain, and starting center Nick Allegretti sidelined with a calf injury. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Hartman and Kaliakmanis to march the Commanders up and down the field, while on the other side of the ball, the Washington defense is drawing rave reviews this summer.

That unit is excelling under new DC Daronte Jones, deploying a blitz heavy scheme that limited Miami to 7 points and 4.4 yards per pass last week. The Lions offense is still working out the kinks of the Drew Petzing system, with Dobbs and Altmyer both averaging under 6 yards per attempt in their preseason debut. Altmyer played to a dismal 53.2 passer rating, while the team committed three turnovers and averaged only 4.7 yards per play.

Preseason scoring has been unusually high so far this year, but this game will be the exception. Both of the Commanders and Lions first exhibition games fell well below the total, and I expect another low-scoring affair this afternoon. Bet the under.