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Find the Best Odds for Super Bowl 53 Game Props

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 8:58 AM PDT

Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl 53
Super Bowl LIII makes its way to Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday in a game between the New England Patriots and LA Rams. By Atlanta Falcons (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Super Bowl 53 is finally here between the New England Patriots and LA Rams
  • How many touchdowns will be scored in the game?
  • What are the odds for a team to attempt a 2-point conversion, miss a field goal or convert a 4th down?

Prop betting is one of the most popular ways to bet on the Super Bowl.

With literally hundreds of options to bet the big game, we focus on the Super Bowl 53 Game Props you have available to you.

1st Play of Game

1st Plays Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
1st Play of Game on Offense Either Team – Pass Attempt +110 +110
1st Play of Game on Offense Either Team – Rush or Sack -130 (Rush) -140
 Patriots 1st Play of Game on Offense – Pass Attempt -120 –
Patriots 1st Play of Game on Offense – Rush or Sack +100 –
Rams 1st Play of Game on Offense – Pass Attempt +125 –
Rams 1st Play of Game on Offense – Rush or Sack -145 –

*All odds taken 1/30

Brady and Goff ranked about middle of the pack in passing attempts per game this season at 12th and 13th. Not among the highest, but I like the plus-money on one of these teams trying to open the game by making a big play through the air.

The last four years the first play has been a pass, so let’s bet on the trend continuing.

First Score of Game

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
First Score of Game – TD -190 -170
First Score of Game – FG or Safety +165 +140
New England First Score of Game – TD -175 -180
New England First Score of Game – FG or Safety +145 +150
LA First Score of Game – TD -160 -180
LA First Score of Game – FG or Safety +140 +150

Picking the exact team’s first score could be heavily dependent on the coin toss, which I’m not a big fan of. But at +165 for either team’s first score to be a field goal, I like the odds of defenses forcing the offense to settle for a field goal early.

Total Game Touchdowns

Number of TDs Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Over 4.5 -450 -500
Under 4.5 +360 +350
Over 5.5 -250 -230
Under 5.5 +210 +190
Over 6.5 -130 -135
Under 6.5 +110 +105
Over 7.5 +175 +155
Under 7.5 -210 -190
Over 8.5 +290 +250
Under 8.5 -350 -325

*Not all options included

LA was the league’s second-highest scoring team at 32.9 PPG, while New England was fourth at 27.2.

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In the playoffs, Rams’ games have featured six and four TDs, while each of New England’s games have seen nine. I think the safest bet is Over 6.5, but if you like the game total to go Over, a bet on Over 7.5 could also come into play.

Exact Game Touchdowns

Number of TDs Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
5 +550 +450
6 +450 +450
7 +450 +400
8 +550 +600
9 +700 +700
10 or more +550 +400

*Not all options included

An alternative to betting the Over/Under on total touchdowns could be to sprinkle a little bit over a few different options. Unless you’re expecting an outrageously low or high-scoring game, smaller bets on each of six, seven, and eight touchdowns (for example) would return a profit if one of them hits.

Both Teams To Score A Touchdown

Result Odds
Yes -1500
No +1000

It has to be Yes. We have two of the highest scoring teams in the league. Yet, this should only be bet by those of you with the largest of bankrolls. The option exists, but there are likely better bets out there.

Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Yes -170 -140
No +150 +110

You’d think a short touchdown would be harder than it actually is. But think about how many goal line stands you see and consider the PI penalties in the end zone leading to short attempts.

Combined Yardage Of All TDs

Yardage Odds
Over 87.5 -130
Under 87.5 -110

The way I see it, if the game can reach the six or seven touchdown territory, and you can get one or two medium-to-long scores, an Over bet should be looking good.

Straight Scores By Either Team

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
3 Straight By Either Team – Yes -200 -175
3 Straight By Either Team – No +170 +145
4 Straight By Either Team – Yes +210 +230
4 Straight By Either Team – No -250 -290

With two teams as efficient on offense as we have in Super Bowl 53, it’s hard to imagine either being kept off the scoreboard for too long.

On the flip side, either could easily go on a roll. In the past five Super Bowls, three straight scores would have cashed three times, and twice the Patriots were involved. Four straight would’ve cashed twice with a team actually scoring five times in a row rather than four.

Highest Scoring Quarter

Quarter Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
1 +425 +500
2 +175 +145
3 +425 +350
4 +190 +220

First quarters have produced only 7.18 points over the past 11 Super Bowls – clearly why such long odds are offered.

It doesn’t help that the Pats, who have scored just three points in the first quarter of eight Brady/Belichick Super Bowls, are involved.

I’d prefer to bet on the highest scoring half, but recent years have favored the 2nd Quarter. Three of the past five years the 2nd Quarter has seen the most scoring, including each of the past two years. The other two years the 4th and 3rd were the highest.

Highest Scoring Half

Highest Scoring Half Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
1st Half +145 +120
2nd Half + Overtime -165 -150
Both The Same – +2000

It’s been the second half/OT in three of the past five Super Bowls, as well as each of the last two. Each of those last two have included the New England Patriots. I’ll follow the trend and bet on second half scoring.

Wire-To-Wire Win

Result Odds
Either Team – Yes +125
Either Team – No -145
Patriots – Yes +250
Patriots – No -300
Rams – Yes +400
Rams – No -500

Whether there are three straight scores or not, I think these teams are both capable of exchanging scores at least early on.

However, do read the fine print, as should a team be leading or tied at the end of each quarter it will be graded as a win. In which case, an exchange of leads mid-quarter which does not hold up until the end of a quarter would not count.

If a team could run away with this it’s likely New England.

Either Team To Attempt a 2-PT Conversion

Result Odds
Yes +105
No -135

Rams were tied for third in 2-PT conversion attempts per game this season, while the Pats rarely gave it a go.

With two coaches not afraid to take chances and a prop that has cashed the past three years, and seven of the past nine, this possibly is one of my favorites still being offered at plus-money. Bet the Yes.

Either Team To Score 2 PT Conversion

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Yes +180 +180
No -220 -220

Not as safe as the “attempt” bet above, but some great value if you think a team will go for it. In fact, if you bet Yes on both, as long as there is an attempt, the worst you can do is basically break even.

Players To Have a Passing Attempt

Total Odds
Over 2.5 -125
Under 2.5 -115

With Julian Edelman and Johnny Hekker both in the lineup, anything is possible. Both have attempted passes this season and Hekker did so just last game. More than two passers has cashed in three of the past five Super Bowls.

Missed FG or PAT

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Missed FG – Yes +125 –
Missed FG – No -145 –
Missed PAT – Yes +290 +275
Missed PAT – No -350 -350

We’ve simply seen far too many missed FGs and PATs this year to not consider the Yes. Especially with Zuerlein nursing an injury, split a unit on both Yes options.

Both Teams To Score A Field Goal

Result Odds
Yes -170
No +150

Not all bets have to offer big returns. The Rams kicked the third-most FGs this season while the Pats ranked 11th. Between Greg Zuerlein and Stephen Gostkowski, only two kicks have been missed all season. Yes -170.

Field Goals Scored Each Quarter

Field Goals Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Field Goal In 1st Quarter – Yes -120 -140
Field Goal In 1st Quarter – No +100 +110
Field Goal In 2nd Quarter – Yes -250 -295
Field Goal In 2nd Quarter – No +210 +235
Field Goal In 3rd Quarter – Yes -120 -135
Field Goal In 3rd Quarter – No +100 +105
Field Goal In 4th Quarter – Yes -185 -175
Field Goal In 4th Quarter – No +160 +145

There’s heavy juice on the Yes in the 4th quarter, but if this game is close at all, any points will be worth taking as this one winds down.

Alternatively, you can pay a little less for a field goal in the opening quarter as these teams possibly feel each other out in the opening stages.

Longest Successful Field Goal

O/U 48 or 47.5 Yards Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Over 48 -110 (47.5) -115
Under 48 -110 (47.5) -115

Zuerlein is 2/2 from 40-49 yard range and 1/2 from 50+ in the playoffs. Greg the Leg missed twice from over 40 and twice from over 50 in the regular season. But he has kicked field goals of 56 and 57 yards this year.

Gostkowski is 1/1 during the playoffs from 40-49 with his longest coming in at 47. During the regular season, his longest was 52 yards, but he did miss twice from over 40 and three times from over 50.

The memory of Zuerlein’s 57-yarder makes the Over look too easy, which makes me think Under is the way to go.

Touchbacks

Player Odds
Greg Zuerlein First Kickoff is Touchback – Yes -295
Greg Zuerlein First Kickoff is Touchback – No +235
Stephen Gostkowski First Kickoff is Touchback – Yes +110
Stephen Gostkowski First Kickoff is Touchback – No -140

Zuerlein has kicked off 75 times for 57 touchbacks this season, good for fifth-overall at 76%. By comparison, Gostkowski has kicked off 93 times for just 50 touchbacks, which puts him 27th overall for kickers at 53.8%. I’ll bet on the Rams running out Gostkowski’s first kickoff.

Made Punts

Number of Punts Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Total Made Punts Over 7.5 +115 +105
Total Made Punts Under 7.5 -135 -135
Patriots Total Made Punts Over 3.5 -130 -120
Patriots Total Made Punts Under 3.5 +110 -110
Rams Total Made Punts Over 3.5 -110 (O/U 3) -165
Rams Total Made Punts Over 3.5 -110 (O/U 3) +135

The Colts had 11 punts this postseason alone. The Pats and Rams have combined for the same total with six and five, respectively.

Based on regular season averages, the Pats punted four times per game with a total of 64, while the Rams punted the least at 2.69 with a total of 43. If those rates continue, we’re looking at an Under.

4th Down Conversions

4th Down Conversions Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
4th Down Conversion – Yes -370 –
4th Down Conversion – No +310 –
LA 4th Down Conversion – Yes -135 -150
LA 4th Down Conversion – No +115 +120
New England 4th Down Conversion – Yes -140 -155
New England 4th Down Conversion – No +120 +125

Your immediate thought has to lean towards seeing Sean McVay and/or Bill Belichick attempting, and likely converting, a 4th down. However, dig into the numbers and this season the Rams only attempted a 4th down 15 times, while the Pats did so on just 14 occasions.

LA converted on only six attempts and the Pats just seven. I’m taking the No at big odds.

Total Sacks

Sacks Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Over 3.5 -130 -150
Under 3.5 +110 +120

With the league-leader in sacks lining up for the Rams on defense, the Over may look like the play. However, Brady has yet to be sacked this postseason and Goff has only been taken down once. Under.

First Turnover

First Turnover Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Fumble +150 +135
Interception -125 -130
No Turnovers +800 +750

The Rams and Patriots ranked fourth and fifth in turnover-differential this season, respectively. Both also ranked in the top half of the league in giveaways.

I think it’s likely someone turns the ball over, but a small bet at +800 could be worth a shot. However, keep in mind these two QBs threw a combined three interceptions in the Conference Championships.

Will There Be a Safety?

Result Odds
Yes +550
No -900

The safety prop is often a favorite for recreational bettors. However, it hasn’t cashed in any of the past four Super Bowls.

Distance Of Longest Penalty

Yardage Odds
Over 15.5 -115
Under 15.5 -155

According to Pro Football Reference, the penalty that results in the second-most YPG on the season was defensive pass interference.

The penalty was called 237 times, for an average of .93 times per game. It accounted for 4,096 penalty yards for an average of 16 YPG. Bookies have this right on, but with two teams not afraid to air it out, PI and the Over will always be on the table throughout the game.

Defensive/Special Teams Touchdown

D/ST TD Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Yes +210 +160
No -250 -200

The Chicago Bears had the most combined touchdowns via interceptions and fumbles during the regular season at only six.

The Rams had four combined, while the Patriots had only two all season. Only one kickoff or punt was returned for a touchdown this season between these two and it was the Pats returning one kickoff.

However, it does seem to happen in the Super Bowl, including six times in the past nine. Half a unit on the Yes.

Will There Be Overtime?

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Yes +800 +550
No -1250 -900

With the hundreds of props on the board, this may be one to pass on. Overtime in a Super Bowl has happened only once in the history of the game. Once!

However, that one time did come two years ago and did feature the Patriots. Hmm…pass.

Team To Score First Wins

Result Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Yes -185 -160
No +160 +130

In six of the last seven championships, the team to score first has gone on to win the game. Bet the trend to continue.

Margin of Victory

Points Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
LA by 1-6 pts +275 +375
New England by 1-6 pts +325 +350
New England by 7-12 pts +400 +550
New England by 13-18 pts +450 +750
LA by 7-12 pts +600 +600

*Not all options included

There has been so much New England love this week that it has me thinking perhaps the Rams can knock them off.

If they do, it has to be in a close game as I can’t see Brady and Belichick getting blown out to the less-experienced Rams. LA bettors may find some better value in betting a close win versus betting the moneyline.

Super Bowl MVP

Player Book 1 Odds Book 2 Odds
Tom Brady +125 +125
Jared Goff +250 +250
Todd Gurley +1200 +1000
Sony Michel +1600 +1200
CJ Anderson +1600 +1600

*Not all options included

Historically this is the quarterback’s award to lose. Seven of the past 10 years have seen a QB win MVP.

Two defensive players (Von Miller and Malcolm Smith) as well as one WR (Santonio Holmes) have also won during this time period. No RB has won since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. Don’t get cute, stick with a QB.

Our Super Bowl 53 Props Coverage:

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