After Crazy Free Agency, Updated NFL Win Totals – Bucs, Pats, Cardinals, Panthers See Major Movement
- Oddsmakers have jumped the Buccaneers’ win total from 7.5 to 9 with the addition of Tom Brady
- The Patriots’ win total fell from 10.5 to 9.5 after Brady announced he was leaving New England
- Below are the updated win totals for all the NFL teams after the major free-agent signings
This has been one of the most memorable first weeks of free agency in NFL history.
Tom Brady left the New England Patriots after 20 seasons and six Super Bowl victories to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Houston Texans traded star wide receiver D’Andre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Carolina Panthers told quarterback Cam Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, that he was free to negotiate a trade and signed Teddy Bridgewater to take his place.
Some win total props have naturally fluctuated as a result of all the player movement.
Updated 2020 NFL Win Totals
| Team | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8.5 | -150 | +130 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Houston Texans | 8 | -110 | -110 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | -110 | -110 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9 | -125 | +105 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | -130 | +110 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | -110 | -110 |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | -130 | +110 |
| New York Giants | 6.5 | -110 | -110 |
| New York Jets | 7 | -120 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | -145 | +125 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9 | -120 | -100 |
| Tampa Buccaneers | 9 | -125 | +105 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 | -110 | -110 |
| Washington Redskins | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
Odds taken March 19.
Brady Bolsters Bucs
The Buccaneers have taken the biggest jump after opening at 7.5 on Feb. 5 as can be seen in the 2020 NFL win totals tracker.
The addition of Brady is obviously is the primary factor. Even though he is 43 and coming off a subpar season, no quarterback in NFL history has been a bigger winner.
Brady has one thing in common with Jameis Winston, the player he is succeeding …
The final passes of Tom Brady with the Patriots and Jameis Winston with the Buccaneers. pic.twitter.com/GaBCDzflth
— Christian Goeckel (@goeckelespn) March 18, 2020
The Buccaneers could use a boost after missing the playoffs for 12 straight seasons, the second-longest current drought in the NFL after the Cleveland Browns. Tampa Bay has also played just 15 games in 44 seasons but showed signs of progress last season when they were 7-9 under new coach Bruce Arians.
Brady will have more playmakers in Tampa Bay than he did in New England. The Buccaneers have two 1,000-yard receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as well as solid tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate.
That foursome helped the Bucs score 28.6 points a game in 2019.
The Buccaneers still need to improve a defense that finished 29th in the league last season in points allowed with 28.1 a game. If they do, the over 9 wins looks enticing.
Are Patriots Rebuilding?
Meanwhile, the Patriots win total is going into the other direction.
New England has an unsettled quarterback situation with second-year man Jarrett Stidham, who has four career regular-season passes, the only one on the roster. He was the Patriots’ fourth-round draft pick last season.
To create salary cap space, safety Duron Harmon was traded to the Detroit Lions. That is part of a decimation of a defense that has also lost linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Elandon Roberts in free agency along with tackle Danny Shelton.
The Patriots had an outstanding defense last season. The unit has already lost Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Duron Harmon. There's a lot of work to be done.
— Mark Daniels (@MarkDanielsPJ) March 18, 2020
The Patriots haven’t gone into rebuilding mode for a long time as they have won 11 straight AFC East titles and haven’t had a losing season since 2000.
New England looks like a team headed in the other direction after going just 4-4 in the second half of the regular season following an 8-0 start. The Patriots were then knocked off by the Tennessee Titans in an AFC divisional-round playoff game.
Yet it’s hard to bet against the great Bill Belichick. A small wager on the over 9.5 seems in order.
High Hopes in Desert
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last year during a 5-10-1 season and hopes are higher for the Cardinals in 2020 after adding Hopkins.
While Hopkins will be the clear WR1, the Cardinals also have two other good receivers in future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and promising third-year man Christian Kirk.
Welcome to the valley @DeAndreHopkins !!! ???? Special things are ahead @AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/0nAGcZEiJR
— Larry Fitzgerald (@LarryFitzgerald) March 17, 2020
Hopkins’ should bolster an offense that was in the middle of the NFL pack in points scored last season, finishing 16th with a 22.6 average.
Arizona has also prioritized bolstering its defense in free agency by signing defensive lineman Jordan Phillips and linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and Devon Kennard. The Cardinals were torched 27.6 points a game last season, ranking 28th in the league.
Taking the Cardinals at over 7.5 is enticing.
Panthers Start Over
The Panthers are starting over after hiring first-year coach Matt Rhule from the college ranks at Baylor.
In addition to Newton being phased out, star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly retired and tight end Greg Olsen and safety Justin Reid were released.
Cam Newton was more than a very good football player. He was an electric energy source for this entire stadium. I think it’ll take a little bit of time to replace that.
— John Ellis (@OnePantherPlace) March 18, 2020
The Panthers also lost cornerback James Bradberry, defensive end Mario Addison and defensive tackles Vernon Butler and Gerald McCoy as free agents.
Under 5.5 seems like a sure thing as the Panthers are unlikely to better last season’s 5-11 record.
Cowboys Up, Raiders Down
Two teams that could provide value are the Dallas Cowboys at over 9.5 and Las Vegas Raiders at under 7.5.
No team needed a coaching change more than the Cowboys, who were stagnant under Jason Garrett as their 8-8 record of 2019 indicated.
Look for Mike McCarthy to reinvigorate the franchise, especially with quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Amari Cooper at his disposal.
.@Dak Prescott: Franchise QB.
His 10 BEST PLAYS from a career year in Dallas! pic.twitter.com/bw6PJZFeNO
— NFL (@NFL) March 16, 2020
Changing locales from Oakland to Las Vegas isn’t going to change the fact the Raiders look like they made a mistake by giving coach Jon Gruden a 10-year, $100-million contract.
Granted, the Raiders went 7-9 last season. Yet it had a very fluky feel because they were outscored by 106 points.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
