Free Week 18 NFL Parlay Picks: Play This Longshot Parlay with 129-1 Odds

• With so much uncertainty around Week 18, options for NFL parlay legs are a little more limited than normal
• I have put together 1 longshot NFL parlay for Week 18 + 1 higher-probability parlay
• See my NFL parlay picks for Week 18 below

With sportsbooks still unsure of who is playing and for how long they will play in Week 18, there are not as many betting markets to choose from for NFL parlay legs. But that hasn’t stopped me from putting together two more NFL parlays for Week 18, one being a longshot parlay with just under 129-1 odds, and a higher-probability NFL parlay with +227 odds.

I hit three of the five legs in my longshot parlay last week, coming up just a couple yards shy of hitting a fourth leg. The Cowboys were a total dud, though. While I didn’t hit the jackpot with the parlay, it was another week of profitability betting each leg as a single as well. I did hit my higher-probability parlay from Week 18, cashing at +153 odds. But let’s get to Week 18’s NFL parlays!

Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 18

My longshot NFL parlay for Week 18 has five legs and is best played at bet365, where I was able to get +12888 odds. This means a $5 bet would potentially return $649.44. At the time of writing this, DraftKings and FanDuel were the only other books where I could construct the parlay as it is above, but their payout was significantly less. BetMGM, Caesars, and ESPN Bet were all missing markets or did not offer the milestone I wanted.

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The first leg of my NFL parlay is the Texans moneyline. I discussed why I like Houston to upset the Titans in my Week 18 NFL picks.

Next up is Joe Flacco for 275+ passing yards. In the five games he has started for Indianapolis this season, Flacco is averaging 265.8 passing yards per game. But he has achieved the 275+ milestone in two of the five starts, falling just shy at 272 in one of them. One of the overs was last week against the Giants, when he threw for 330, and Flacco started the Colts’ first game against the Jaguars this season and threw for 359 yards. No team has allowed more passing yards or net yards per pass attempt than Jacksonville this year. While they have also been bad against the run, I like Shane Steichen to allow his veteran QB to go out there and sling it.

Then I have Jalen McMillan for 60+ receiving yards. The rookie has only achieved this milestone in one game this season, but he is averaging 60.5 receiving yards over his last four, and his lowest receiving total in those four weeks has been 51 yards. When the Bucs faced the Saints back in Week 6, Baker Mayfield threw for 325 yards, with 125 of those going to Chris Godwin. One thing to note is that the Saints still had Marshon Lattimore back in Week 6, who was able to neutralize Mike Evans pretty well. They won’t have that this time around, and I believe they will give him some extra attention, leaving more opportunities for McMillan, who continues to earn the trust of his quarterback.

The fourth leg of my parlay is Rico Dowdle for 80+ rushing yards. Since taking over as the true lead back in Week 12, Dowdle has surpassed 80 rushing yards in five of six games, which includes an 86-yard performance against the same Commanders he will face in Week 18. In those six games, he is averaging 100.8 yards per game on the ground. The Washington defense he is preparing for allows the third-most yards per carry and fifth-most rushing yards this season. I do appreciate a Trey Lance package in this game may mean fewer carries for Dowdle, but I don’t think he’ll need the full 20 he has been averaging since Week 12 to reach 80+ against this Commanders defense.

The last leg I have included in this parlay is a Jordan Addison anytime TD. I went into detail on why I am betting Addison to score against the Lions in my Week 18 NFL touchdown scorer bets.

Higher-Probability Week 18 NFL Parlay

My higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 18 has three legs and comes with +227 odds if played at DraftKings. Caesars and bet365 were the only other sportsbooks where this parlay could be built, and while bet365 offered a competitive payout, Caesars did not.

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The first leg of this parlay is Bijan Robinson for 70+ rushing yards. The Falcons RB is averaging 80.4 rushing yards per game, and has gone over this milestone in ten of 16 games. But he has achieved 70+ in each of his last five, and seven of his last eight. I like him to clear this number again when he takes on a Panthers defense that has allowed the most rushing yards and yards per carry this season. Bijan recorded 95 yards on just 15 carries when they met earlier this season.

Next is Jaleel McLaughlin over 36.5 rushing yards. This actually isn’t an alt line; it’s his standard over/under line. I’m surprised this is so low with the Chiefs resting many of their starters, and McLaughlin’s recent uptick in usage. The second-year back has gone over 36.5 rushing yards in three of his last four, where the outlier being a game against the Colts where he left early due to injury. McLaughlin isn’t just barely going over this total recently either. He has totaled 69, 84, and 44 yards in those three aforementioned games. I like the Broncos to continue leaning on the RB with the best play-making ability.

The last leg is Zach Charbonnet for 40+ rushing yards. In the five games Charbonnet has started this season, he is averaging 74.8 rushing yards and has surpassed 40 yards in four of five. The lone game where he did not go over was his first start of the season back in Week 2. The Rams defense he will face has not been good against the run this season, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards and tenth-most yards per carry. When these two teams played earlier in the season, Kenneth Walker handled 25 rushing attempts and turned them into 83 yards. Charbonnet should have no problem totaling 40+.