Gardner Minshew’s OROY Odds Back to +1600 After Being Named Starter; Is There Value?

• Gardner Minshew’s OROY odds had fallen with Nick Foles return from injury
• The 7th round pick had filled in admirably until their Week 9 loss to the Texans in London
• Minshew relieved Foles this past week and was announced as the starter for the remainder of the season

Minshew Mania found new life after Nick Foles’ abysmal performance this past week in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While he didn’t lead the Jaguars back to victory, at the very least, he showed some fight.

For a while, Minshew’s NFL OROY odds peaked on October 2nd at +263 following a two-game win streak, which included a comeback against the Denver Broncos.

Entering this past week, Minshew’s OROY odds were at +4000 as a backup. But, with Jaguars coach Doug Marrone trying to save his job, he’s returned to the former sixth-round pick as the starter and his odds have dramatically improved.

NFL 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds taken December 4th

Marrone’s Hail Mary

The Jaguars came into the season with an expensive, veteran-laden team that thought it could compete in a muddled AFC south. However, things didn’t go to plan and it’s likely going to result in Doug Marrone getting fired.

The coach turning back to Minshew is a desperation heave to try and change the direction of the team going into next season, despite the massive contract handed out to Nick Foles in free agency last offseason.

More importantly, Jacksonville still has four games to play, all of which are against teams that are .500 or worse. With a good showing, Minshew could force the Jaguars hand to commit to him full time in the future, and look to move Foles elsewhere.

"I'm playing to beat the crap out of the guy across from me…….I don't need some kind of extra incentive to go out and compete"

Gardner Minshew is back as the #Jaguars starting QB pic.twitter.com/n1mSuM0qg8

— Ben Murphy (@BenMurphyTV) December 4, 2019

Betting on Minshew to win OROY at this point can’t be considered a value bet. While Minshew’s numbers are pretty comparable to Kyler Murray’s of the Arizona Cardinals, Josh Jacobs has too big of a lead on both to catch up.

There is a world in which Minshew can finish second to Jacobs if he plays well in these final four starts.

In Jon Gruden’s surprisingly efficient offense out in Oakland, a strong offensive line powers their running game and allows Jacobs to thrive. The Alabama product is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and has five separate 100-yard rushing performances on a 6-6 Raider team.

There goes that man.@IAM_JoshJacobs | #OAKvsKC pic.twitter.com/eUhtIEGQc0

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) December 1, 2019

Is He Worth Betting?

When it comes to award voting, writers love narratives. The Raiders going from 4-12 to a borderline playoff team in a single season is a testament to both the program Gruden pieced together, and the new talent acquired by Mike Mayock.

The Jaguars are too far out of the mix at this point for Minshew to rebuild momentum on his side, even if his numbers are more than respectable for a QB coming out of Mike Leach’s Air Raid system.