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How NFL Trade Deadline Deals Are Affecting Super Bowl Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Nov 1, 2022 · 5:45 AM PDT

How NFL Trade Deadline Deals Are Affecting Super Bowl Odds
Oct 30, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NFL trade deadline arrived at 4:00 pm ET on Tuesday, November 1
  • Four of the six teams that have already made deadline deals are among the top five teams in the Super Bowl odds
  • How these NFL trade deadline deals are affecting Super Bowl odds is assessed in the story below

Sixteen deals, including a record 10 on the final day prior to the 4 pm ET Tuesday, November 1 deadline, were consummated in the days leading up to the NFL trade deadline. However, only a few of them could be classified as significant in terms of the Super Bowl odds.

For the San Francisco 49ers, the acquisition of all-purpose All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers is a game-changer.

In Sunday’s 31-14 drubbing of the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, McCaffrey was rushing 18 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. He also was catching eight passes for 55 yards and a TD. And he didn’t stop there. McCaffrey threw for a 34-yard TD as well.

Let’s look at the major moves made up to and on Trade Deadline Day and how their arrival in a new city moved the needle on the Super Bowl future book betting lines.


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Players Traded At NFL Trade Deadline

The addition of McCaffrey to the 49ers is the biggest move of the 2022 NFL trade deadline. On October 18, San Francisco was sitting at +2200 in the Super Bowl betting odds. Today, the 49ers are +1200. They’re second among NFC clubs and fourth overall in the Super Bowl betting market.

Monday, the Baltimore Ravens were solidifying their defense, adding linebacker Roquan Smith from the Chicago Bears. Smith has recorded 52 tackles, 2.5 sacks and two interceptions for the Bears this season. Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds were shortening from +1750 to +1600 following this deal.

Wide receiver Kadarius Toney going from the New York Jets to the Kansas City Chiefs is a somewhat curious move. Injuries were preventing Toney from playing any role of significance in the 6-2 start by the Giants. The #3 team in the Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs remain at +700.

The New York Jets also didn’t move in Super Bowl betting markets after acquiring RB James Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s going to be a placeholder for rookie sensation Breece Hall, lost to a knee injury. Let’s face it, the Jets aren’t playing on the level of these previously-discussed teams. Their Super Bowl odds remain at +12500. For the Jets, just making the playoffs would be their Super Bowl.

Likewise, the addition of disgruntled WR Robbie Anderson from Carolina isn’t giving the Arizona Cardinals any sort of Super Bowl odds boost.

Vikings Land Hockenson

The Minnesota Vikings were adding TE and one-time first-round pick TJ Hockenson from the Detroit Lions. But the Vikings remain at a betting line of +1600 to win the Super Bowl.

In Miami, the 5-3 Dolphins made a bold move to grab pass rusher Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos. He’s collected 5.5 sacks this season. Miami’s Super Bowl line shortened to +3000 from +3150.

The Philadelphia Eagles were landing edge rusher Robert Quinn from the Bears. He’ll give them more presence on the pass rush, but wasn’t going to be a difference-maker in any Super Bowl betting line. Philadelphia remains #2 at +500, slightly shortened from +525.

In Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite Bills were picking up RB Nyheim Hines from the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo’s line improved slightly, from +260 to +230.

Pittsburgh dealt WR Chase Claypool to the Bears. If you think that move was going to move the Super Bowl line on Chicago, you clearly haven’t been watching Bears games this season.

Players Left on NFL Trading Block

As is the case every year, several players who were hearing their names being mentioned in trade rumors didn’t go anywhere.

Everyone knew that Rams RB Cam Akers was on the block, because the Rams were telling everyone that this was so. Akers and coach Sean McVay had fallen out a couple of weeks ago. He’s been looking to move the back ever since. Akers has been inactive the past two games. Now LA must find a way to patch things up, mend fences and get Akers back on board.

Cleveland was getting a lot of calls on RB Kareem Hunt. He’s no superstar but could have served as a complementary piece in an upscale offense. Might he or Akers be a fit with the Bills, who could use help at RB?

The Broncos WR duo of Jerry Jeudy and WR KJ Hamler are names being bandied about.

Houston Texans WR Brandin Cooks, and New England WR Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne are other names who didn’t end up packing a bag on Tuesday.



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