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Julio Jones a Near-Lock to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 7:22 AM PDT

Julio Jones
Julio Jones leads the league with ,1305 receiving yards and no one else is even close. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].
  • Julio Jones is a heavy favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2018 
  • Only five receivers total are left on the board
  • Where is the value in betting this receiving yards leader prop?

“You don’t win the receiving yards title in the red zone,” some wise person has probably once said. Maybe that person was Julio Jones, because that seems to be his motto this year.

While you won’t even find the Falcons receiver on the board to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, he is the runaway favorite to lead the league in receiving yardage.

Odds to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2018

Player Team Odds
Julio Jones Falcons -500
Adam Thielen Vikings +300
Tyreek Hill Chiefs +2000
Michael Thomas Saints +2500
Mike Evans Buccaneers +2500

With just five weeks remaining in the season, is this race over? Or is there still some value to be found in the other receivers? Let’s take a look.

No End Zone, No Problem

Player Targets Receptions Touchdowns Receiving Yards
Julio Jones 125 84 3 1,305
Adam Thielen 124 93 8 1,138
Tyreek Hill 94 65 11 1,106
Michael Thomas 97 86 8 1,080
Mike Evans 99 62 5 1,073

You’d figure a guy that is catching the ball this often and this efficiently would find the end zone a few more times, even just by the random luck of a defender falling down. But Julio can rarely touch paydirt. He didn’t catch his first TD until Week 9, yet instead of getting frustrated with a lack of red-zone looks in Steve Sarkisian’s (stupid) offense, he’s just balled out on every other corner of the field.

Because of beautiful routes like that, he could potentially become just the second player to catch more than 1,900 yards in a season, joining Calvin Johnson’s 2012 year (a season in which Megatron only scored five touchdowns).

Can anyone realistically catch him?

Right now, Jones has a 167-yard cushion over second-place Adam Thielen. Here’s the kind of absurd scenario it would take to close that gap.

On the season, Jones’ worst single-game output was a 62-yard effort against Pittsburgh in Week 5. Let’s say by some divine intervention that disadvantaged NFL defenses are all able to rise to the Steelers’ level, Jones averages 62 yards a game for the rest of the season and every other receiver on the board continues their per game average. Thielen is the only one who would catch him, eking out a win by about 40 yards.

And that’s before you consider any scenarios where the Vikings, Saints or Chiefs lock themselves into a playoff spot and rest their stars in Week 17. Now throw in Thielen’s injury concerns heading into a pair of cold weather games in New England and Seattle.

The answer is no. Barring injury, no one can catch Jones.

But what about injury?

Alright sicko, let’s discuss this possibility. Jones had a nicked-up calf earlier in the season which held him out of practice, but he hasn’t missed a game due to injury in almost two years, when turf toe kept him out of a pair of games with the lowly Rams and 49ers. Had those games mattered at all, he likely would’ve powered through.

Sure, Jones has succumb to the injury bug a few other times throughout his career. But if I’m betting against a player solely in the hope that he gets injured, you better be getting longer odds than Thielen’s +300. Go for Thomas if you truly feel a Jones injury coming on.

Better yet, instead of cheering against the best receiver in the game, enjoy his stretch run at -500.

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