- The Kansas City Chiefs hung 40 points on the Jaguars in Week 1
- They scored at least 40 five times in 2018
- How often will they do it total in 2019?
Well the Kansas City Chiefs picked up right where they left off last year.
An AFC opponent with a quality defense? Whatever. An injury to your star receiver early in the first quarter? Who cares?
It was just another big day for Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs crossed 40 points five times last year. And since they’ve already done it once this year, they look set offensively once again.
Odds for How Many Games Chiefs Score 40+ Points
|Number of Games||Odds at BetOnline|
|Over 2.5 Games||-120|
|Under 2.5 games||-120|
*Odds taken 09/11/2019
We’ve got 15 games left for KC, so the Chiefs need 40 twice. Seems pretty doable.
But there are a few things that could trip them up.
Let’s start with Tyreek Hill’s injury.
Tyreek Hill’s Injury Leaves Hole in KC Offense
Like him or not, there’s no denying the Cheetah’s ability to change a game.
Hill had two of the NFL’s fastest runs last season, which made him a prime quick-strike candidate.
Now he’s on the shelf.
#Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (sternoclavicular joint injury) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, sources say. A positive sign: KC does not plan to put him on IR, as of now. He’ll need to be monitored in rehab, and how quickly it progresses will determine if it’s more or less than 6 weeks.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 11, 2019
This will put pressure on Sammy Watkins to replicate his ridiculous Week 1, which is a stretch. Here’s why.
Sammy Watkins 2018 vs 2019
The only number on there that may be sustainable? His 11 targets. Travis Kelce soaked up eight on Sunday. After Damien Williams’ six, no Chief saw more than two targets.
Sammy Watkins was unstoppable in Week 1! pic.twitter.com/mrBOOF5STS
— PFF (@PFF) September 11, 2019
Hill averaged 17.0 yards-per-catch last year. Watkins hasn’t averaged that since 2015 (17.5).
He’s also struggled to stay on the field. He hasn’t played a full 16 game schedule since his rookie season. His 15 games with the Rams in 2017 saw him average just 4.7 targets a game.
Top speed reached by a player in Week 1, tracked by @NextGenStats:
1. Saquon Barkley: 21.8 MPH
2. Malcolm Butler: 21.5 MPH
3. DeSean Jackson: 21.4 MPH
4. Sammy Watkins: 21.3 MPH
5. Terry McLaurin: 21.2 MPH
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 9, 2019
Watkins did flash his wheels in Week 1, sporting a top-five speed. But Hill still takes things to another level.
Kansas City Chiefs Remaining Schedule
|Week||Opponent||Points Allowed Week 1|
|Week 2||@ Oakland Raiders||16|
|Week 3||vs Baltimore Ravens||10|
|Week 4||@ Detroit Lions||27|
|Week 5||vs Indianapolis Colts||30|
|Week 6||vs Houston Texans||30|
|Week 7||@ Denver Broncos||24|
|Week 8||vs Green Bay Packers||3|
|Week 9||vs Minnesota Vikings||12|
|Week 10||@ Tennessee Titans||13|
|Week 11||@ Los Angeles Chargers||24|
|Week 13||vs Oakland Raiders||16|
|Week 14||@ New England Patriots||3|
|Week 15||vs Denver Broncos||24|
|Week 16||@ Chicago Bears||10|
|Week 17||vs Los Angeles Chargers||24|
We’ll assume Hill misses Weeks 2-6. The Ravens and Broncos both held KC under 40 last year. Denver did it twice. There could be an offensive letdown against the Raiders as Andy Reid has to formulate a game-plan without Hill.
Scratch Week 2 off too.
The Lions ran out of gas against a rookie QB with inferior weapons. And Houston in Week 6? That has shootout written all over it.
Where Will Kansas City Score 40 From Weeks 7-17
Assuming Hill comes back Week 7, we’ll allow for an adjustment period. Mahomes has had two of his more pedestrian showings in Denver. If Derwin James is healthy, Week 11 could be problematic.
#Chargers S Derwin James will undergo surgery on his foot following evaluations of the stress fracture in his fifth metatarsal, sources say. He’s expected to be sidelined around three months. The surgery will be performed by noted foot and ankle specialist Robert Anderson.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) August 17, 2019
We’ll also cross off games against the Vikings, Patriots and Bears. Week 17 could be low scoring as well, depending on what KC has to play for.
?⬇️ all night!
— PFF (@PFF) September 9, 2019
That leaves us with four games against the Packers, Titans, Raiders and at home against the Broncos.
The Packers defense looked good in Week 1, but the Bears’ offense was out of sync. The Titans will need nearly flawless QB play, or else Mahomes and company could have plenty of short fields to work with. Oakland, overall, is a bit of a mystery, and so are the Broncos playing in Kansas City.
How Many Times Will Kansas City Chiefs Score 40+ points?
Looking at the remaining 15 weeks of the season, we were able to identify six teams the Chiefs could put up 40 against.
If the Chiefs’ offense hums without Hill, this could be over by Week 6 with games against Detroit and Houston.
Overall, however, we see plenty of chances for KC to put up points.
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-120)
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