Kayvon Thibodeaux Overtakes Spencer Rattler as the Favorite to Be the 1st Overall Pick in 2022 NFL Draft

• Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is now the favorite to be selected first overall in the 2022 NFL Draft
• Thibodeau has moved past Spencer Rattler, who’s off to a slow start in Oklahoma
• See below for analysis on whether or not Thibodeau is worth betting at his new price

Kayvon Thibodeaux has played just one full game so far in the 2021 college football season. Despite his absence on game days however, he’s still the new favorite to be selected first overall in next year’s NFL Draft.

The Oregon defensive end has usurped Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler atop the odds board, not so much because of his own play, but thanks to Rattler’s underwhelming start.

2022 1st Overall Pick Opening Odds

Odds as of  Sept. 29th at DraftKings.

Thibodeaux’s NFL Draft Odds have shrunk to +100, after staring the season at +375. Ratter’s price on the other hand, is the exact same since odds were first released back in May, the only difference now is that Thibodeaux is priced shorter.

Rattler Looks Rattled

To say Rattler has been a disappointment through four weeks is an understatement. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite has failed to impress in any of his three starts against FBS competition, throwing just as many interceptions (3) versus West Virginia, Nebraska and Tulane, as touchdowns (3).

He was so disappointing in most recent outing versus the Mountaineers, that the Oklahoma faithful were chanting his back-up’s name.

https://twitter.com/jasonkersey/status/1441927112735088645

According to college football insiders, his decision making has failed to improve from last season, and he looks more like a fringe first round talent than a franchise quarterback.

Rattler is completing 74% of his passes this season, but his average yards per attempt is down over two full yards (9.6 vs 7.5) from a season ago. Last year, 58% of his completions versus FBS teams went for 10 yards or more, but that number is down to 41.3% this year, despite playing with largely the same receiving corps.

I would hate to be the team that takes Spencer Rattler in the upcoming draft.

There’s just something not clicking with him consistently & I’m not sure I’d trust him to figure it out.

— Aaron Leming (@AaronLemingNFL) September 26, 2021

In his defense, he’s technically just a red-shirt sophomore and still has three years of eligibility left. There’s no immediate need for him to turn pro after this year, and if his stock continues to plummet we may even see him back in Norman next fall.

Don’t forget, he struggled early in 2020 and was even benched versus Texas, before rebounding by throwing 20 touchdown passes over his final seven games.

Thibodeaux On Top

If it’s not a quarterback that goes first overall in the NFL Draft, history has shown us it’s likely a pass rusher. Since 2013, the only non-quarterbacks drafted first are edge rushers Myles Garett and Jadeveon Clowney.

Oversetting against Kayvon Thibodeaux… not ideal. pic.twitter.com/CbQ0yKgeD1

— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) September 21, 2021

Thibodeaux aims to follow their lead, and looked good in his lone full game this season before suffering an ankle injury. The 258-pounder racked up two tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble in the Ducks’ season opening 31-24 win over #18 Fresno State, and returned briefly in Week 4 to play 10 snaps versus Arizona.

He’s set to return on a full-time basis in Week 5 at Stanford, and a dominating effort could vault his draft stock even higher.

The 20-year-old was the highest defensive player recruited in the 2019 class, and the highest recruit ever to sign at Oregon. He made an immediate impact on the Ducks  in his freshman season, racking up a school record 9 sacks. He followed up that stellar campaign by earning various All-American honors in 2020, and had the third shortest odds to be the number one pick following the 2021 NFL Draft.

QB Needy Teams Dominate Winless Ranks

Ultimately, the draft order will dictate whether Thibodeaux or a QB is taken with the first selection. Of the five winless NFL teams through three weeks (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Detroit, New York Jets and New York Giants) just two are set at the quarterback position, while four other 1-2 teams (Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and Washington) will be looking for their next franchise guy come April.

Ahhh so New York Giants couldn't beat a heavily rebuilding Atlanta Hawks abaaa. Smh The Giants are definitely drafting a quarterback in next year's NFL draft

— Yaw Adjei-Mintah (@YawMintYM) September 26, 2021

Unless the Jets or Jaguars end up with the first overall pick, Thibodeaux isn’t likely to hear his name called first, making him unbettable at +100. Before you go racing to the window to back Rattler however, you might want to consider some of the other QB options.

Matt Corral in particular is rocketing up draft boards, and is now the Heisman Trophy favorite. The dual-threat Ole Miss QB has accounted for 15 touchdowns through three games without committing a turnover. He faces Alabama in Week 5, and another strong outing could push his price even closer to Thibodeaux’s.

Week 3 Performance

QB Matt Corral – Ole Miss

• 335 Passing yards 3 TDs
• 68 rushing yards 4 TDs pic.twitter.com/z5WYvaVZfp

— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 21, 2021

A strong performance versus the nation’s number one team is no gimme, but he did light them up for 365 yards and two scores in a 63-48 defeat in 2020.