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Latest NFL MVP Odds Have Stafford Second to Mahomes After Week 1

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in NFL Football

Sep 13, 2021 · 10:48 AM PDT

Matthew Stafford on the field with the LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford looks to throw a pass during an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
  • Los Angeles Rams’ Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a strong Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, to say the least.
  • How much did Stafford’s odds shorten due to his effort?
  • Odds for Matthew Stafford have improved to second on the NFL MVP list. Does he still have value?

While Patrick Mahomes is still the odds-on favorite again in NFL MVP odds, Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback Matthew Stafford tossed 321 yards and three touchdowns in a win against the Chicago Bears on Sunday night.

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Stafford was +1700 heading into the opening game as it was thought that Chicago had a pretty robust defense. The quarterback made quick work of the Bears in Week 1.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +600
Matthew Stafford (Rams) +800
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +900
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +900
Josh Allen (Bills) +1200
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) +1500
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +1500
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1500
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +2000
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +2000
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) +3000
Baker Mayfield (Browns) +3000
Jameis Winston (Saints) +3000
Kurt Cousins (Vikings) +5000
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +5000
Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) +5000
Teddy Bridgewater (Broncos) +6000
Derek Carr (Raiders) +6000
Derrick Henry (Titans) +6000
Matt Ryan (Falcons) +8000
Carson Wentz (Colts) +8000
Tua Tagovaiola (Dolphins) +8000
Ryan Tannehill (Titans) +8000
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) +8000
Ben Rothlisberger (Steelers) +8000
Sam Darnold (Panthers) +10000
Alvin Kamara (Saints) +10000
Trey Lance (49ers) +10000
Dalvin Cook (Vikings) +10000
Nick Chubb (Browns) +10000
DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) +10000

Odds as of September 13th at FanDuel

Matthew Stafford Was at Least on the Radar

Going into this 2021 NFL season, most did not give Matthew Stafford the benefit of a top-five spot in the MVP odds even with the increase in the potential for offense in Los Angeles. Let’s face it. Detroit was a wasteland for wins. That was the bigger draw, and the new Los Angeles Rams’ starter could not be happier to be traded.

Stafford, at 33, needed a lot of things to succeed. Los Angeles and coach Sean McVay could provide that. The question was how much of a beating did the quarterback receive in Detroit, and how would that affect him in Los Angeles. There were some doubts.

Oddsmakers had some hesitation with Stafford, and going against a reasonably solid Chicago Bears defense in Week 1 added a little more concern.

In short, like Dak Prescott, Stafford just unleashed on the Chicago Bears. Stafford had +1700 odds, according to FanDuel, before his Week 1 performance against the Tennesee Titans (the tracker indicated a +1750 average).

Updated Odds for Matthew Stafford After Week 1

Los Angeles went up and down the field against the Chicago Bears defense on Sunday night. Granted, this was a home game, but the Rams looked the most dynamic offensive-wise since their Super Bowl run (maybe even more so). Overall, Stafford and Los Angeles racked up a total of 386 yards (321 through the air). This included one deep throw for a touchdown as well.

It is amazing to see how that first half felt so different from Jared Goff in Los Angeles. Stafford went 10-of-13 for 151 yards including that long touchdown. The scary part was that Stafford did not take that many deep shots and was not high nearly as much as expected.

Matthew Stafford Big Odds Mover

Alas, Stafford’s opening odds before Week 1 was +1700 around some players like Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. After his opening performance in Los Angeles, those odds shortened all the way to +800 — second on the MVP list.

Led by the play calling of Sean McVay, Stafford was only sacked once on the night, he was not hurried nearly as often. Also, the quarterback seemed to be able to get off his throws while still showing a little bit of mobility. The play-action rollout touchdown to Van Henderson was a huge example.

The 2011 season was a career-high one for Stafford, and that was just his third in the league. He threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. That Detroit offense was more of a run-and-shoot offense, but in Los Angeles, McVay will still let Stafford take more shots down the field.

As the Rams’ head coach put it, “there is no limit to what we can do”. Those are pretty telling words.

This first game probably means a little more pressure will be on Matthew Stafford and company. The Rams do have a tougher schedule than most teams, and the NFC West is one stacked division. However, if Stafford and the Rams’ offense can keep playing downhill, they are going to be tough to challenge in the division and maybe beyond.

The reality is this was a possibility. Can Los Angeles sustain this?

Does Matthew Stafford Have Value Going Forward?

There is little reason to believe that Matthew Stafford will fall off too much in the MVP voting. Yes, teams will adjust, but San Francisco, and even Seattle did show some vulnerability with their pass defense. Los Angles has enough threats at Wide Receiver to scare defenses and again that spiral.

Stafford looks reinvigorated and yes, he still has a bit of value at +800.

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