Latest NFL MVP Odds: Purdy, Lawrence Surge After Week 4
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The biggest story in the latest NFL regular-season MVP market is the rapid ascension of Jacksonville pivot Trevor Lawrence. Since Week 2, the Jaguars quarterback has shortened from +1900 to +650 at DraftKings, catapulting him into top-tier contention. Lawrence has guided his team to a 3-1 record and a two-game win streak.
San Francisco’s Brock Purdy has also shortened dramatically from +900 to +330, making him the standalone second-favorite heading into Week 5, when his undefeated 49ers will get a huge test on the road in Seattle against the reigning-champion Seahawks.
The summit of the current betting board still belongs to Buffalo’s Josh Allen, though (+270) though his odds took a slight hit from his +250 post-Week 2 price thanks to the Bills’ Week 4 upset loss at the hands of New England.
Here are the latest NFL MVP odds, compared with the post-Week 2 prices.
NFL MVP Odds (Week 4)
Odds as of Oct 6 at bet365, DraftKings, and FanDuel
The top tier of the MVP race is now exceptionally tight. Allen commands a 27.0% implied probability, closely trailed by Brock Purdy at a 23.3% implied probability. The gap widens significantly behind the top-five favorites. While quarterbacks dominate the top, the wider field proves diverse, featuring running backs, wide receivers, and defensive candidates.
Bookmaker coverage of the NFL MVP odds varies noticeably, with names selectively appearing across different operators.
Biggest NFL MVP Risers
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Lawrence’s odds have shortened from +1900 after Week 2 to +650 at DraftKings, cementing his status as a premier MVP threat. His recent production is stellar, completing 69.2% of his passes for 210.8 yards per game. Posting 2.0 touchdowns against just 0.5 interceptions per contest, Lawrence earned a 111.2 passer rating. This elite efficiency drives the Jaguars to a 3-1 record on a two-game win streak. They now position themselves second overall in the AFC.
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Mahomes has shortened from +750 after Week 2 to +650 at DraftKings while commanding the top-seeded AFC squad. The Chiefs are 4-0 on a four-game win streak, supported by 259.2 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game from Mahomes. Operating with a 64.1% completion rate and a 106.2 passer rating, his steady hand keeps Kansas City flawless. He paces an offense that already tallied 118 points this season.
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Allen’s current +270 price is a slight drift from +250 after Week 2, even as he remains the market frontrunner. He currently averages 259.8 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game alongside a 100.1 passer rating. Buffalo recently suffered a one-game setback, dropping to 3-1, but still sits third in the AFC. Allen maintains a 66.4% completion rate, anchoring an explosive offense that generated an AFC-leading 127 points this season.
Biggest NFL MVP Fallers
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
Herbert’s odds have lengthened dramatically from +3300 after Week 2 to +20000 at DraftKings, leaving his MVP candidacy a long shot. He struggles heavily with turnovers and inefficiency, throwing 1.5 interceptions to just 1.0 touchdown per game. Herbert holds a dismal 70.6 passer rating and a 59.7% completion rate. The Chargers collapsed to a 0-4 record on a four-game losing streak. They rank 14th in the AFC, scoring just 67 points while allowing 106.
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
Stroud’s price has drifted from +8000 after Week 2 to +20000 at DraftKings. He averages 285.2 passing yards per game with a 95.9 passer rating and zero interceptions, but manages only 1.2 passing touchdowns per contest. His campaign faded due to team-level failures. The Texans sit dead last in the AFC at 0-4 on a four-game losing streak, burdened by a glaring 109 points allowed.
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)
Daniels is listed at +15000 due to an elbow injury sidelining him for the last couple games. The Commanders suffer from larger defensive struggles that soured the market on his chances, as well. Washington fell to 1-3, while surrendering a conference-worst 122 points against.
This promising quarterback tumbled from +2000 opening odds to +15000 at DraftKings. Missed time limited his momentum, appearing in just two games while averaging 130.0 passing yards and a 56.9% completion rate. The Commanders suffer from larger defensive struggles that soured the market on his chances. Washington fell to 1-3, ranking 13th in the NFC, while surrendering a conference-worst 122 points against.
NFL MVP Award Best Value Picks
Screening the board involves comparing SBD’s prediction model’s MVP win probability against each player’s implied win probability based on their odds. The goal is shortlisting players whose model probability runs meaningfully higher than the market’s implied figure. Bryce Young and Jared Goff emerge as standout value.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (+5000 at DraftKings)
Young enters off a 32-26 victory over the Detroit Lions, showcasing excellent recent form. Across four games, he paces the league with 317.0 passing yards per game, shattering the 200.0-yard average. Attempting 40.5 passes per contest, he completes 62.3% of his throws with a 100.0 passer rating. Young generates 2.2 passing touchdowns against 0.5 interceptions per game. His current +5000 price has shortened from +8000 after Week 2. At +5000, his implied probability is 1.96% compared to a 1.3% model probability. This leaves a 0.66 percentage point edge. Elite league-leading yardage and positive team results make this current number beatable.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+9900 / 1¢ at Kalshi)
Detroit recently fell 26-32 to the Carolina Panthers, but Goff maintains a spectacular full-season profile. Through four games, he averages 303.5 passing yards per game, ranking near the league summit. Goff flawlessly commands the offense, tossing 2.2 touchdowns per game with zero interceptions. His 67.7% completion rate and robust 108.6 passer rating easily eclipse the 92.3 league average. Goff remains at +5500, unchanged from the post-Week 2 price. His price carries a 1% implied probability versus a 1.2% model probability, creating a 0.2 percentage-point gap.
Backed by elite yardage and pristine turnover metrics, this tight market edge remains highly beatable.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
