- Sportsbooks list Patrick Mahomes as the +150 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage
- The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback currently leads the league with 821 yards
- Mahomes is averaging 410.5 yards per game
Has the path been cleared for Patrick Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing yardage this season?
Books seem to think so.
They’re offering prohibitive +150 odds that Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, will throw for more yards than any NFL passer this season.
2019 NFL Most Passing Yards
|Quarterback (Team)||2019 Passing Yardage (NFL Rank)||Odds|
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||821 (1)||+150|
|Matt Ryan (Falcons)||624 (7)||+800|
|Tom Brady (Patriots)||605 (9)||+900|
|Philip Rivers (Chargers)||626 (6)||+1200|
|Andy Dalton (Bengals)||729 (2)||+1200|
|Dak Prescott (Cowboys)||674 (3)||+1400|
|Baker Mayfield (Browns)||610 (8)||+1800|
|Kyler Murray (Cardinals)||657 (4)||+1800|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||412 (23)||+2000|
|Matthew Stafford (Lions)||630 (5)||+2000|
*Odds taken on 09/19/19.
Mahomes finished second in the NFL last season with 5097 yards.
Mahomes Making His Case
If people were awaiting some sort of sophomore jinx to afflict Mahomes during his second season as Kansas City’s starter, it’s not happening.
He’s picked up right where he left off. Mahomes already holds a 92-yard edge over his closest competitor. He’s completed 14 passes of at least 20 yards in length. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is second in that stat with 12.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 15, 2019
On top of that, the KC QB has completed seven balls that went for distances of 40+ yards. Arizona rookie Kyler Murray is the only other passer to hit on at least four completions of 40 or more yards.
In Week 2, Mahomes lit up the Oakland Raiders for Oakland for 443 yards and four touchdowns in a 28-10 victory. It was the second-best game of his NFL career in terms of passing yardage. Last season, Mahomes threw for 478 yards in a 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 18, 2019
Against the Raiders, he went off for 278 yards and four TDs in the second quarter alone. It helped earn him the AFC Offensive Player of the Week Award.
Patrick Mahomes last 5 attempts to close the half:
– 42-yard TD to Mecole Hardman
– 32 yards to Damien Williams
– 43 yards to Demarcus Robinson
– 27-yard TD to Travis Kelce
– 39-yard TD to Demarcus Robinson
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 15, 2019
Last season, Mahomes joined Peyton Manning of the 2013 Denver Broncos as the only QBs in NFL history to throw for 5000 yards and 50 TDs in the same season.
Contenders Are Dropping Like Flies
In 2018, only Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers (5129) threw for more yardage than Mahomes. That isn’t going to happen this season.
Here's a video of the Ben Roethlisberger injury.pic.twitter.com/PsP1Z1Rhxy
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 15, 2019
Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury in last week’s 28-26 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll undergo surgery and is done for the season.
The same day, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints suffered a torn ligament in the thumb of his right throwing hand. He also underwent surgery. It’s anticipated that he’ll be out for 6-8 weeks.
Brees is a seven-time NFL passing yardage champion and the league’s all-time leader in passing yards with 74845.
#Saints coach Sean Payton tells reporters today that he does not plan to place QB Drew Brees on Injured Reserve, which sounds like good news. It indicates NO believes Brees can be back within 8 weeks. 6 weeks was the initial estimate.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 18, 2019
Between them, Brees (five) and Roethlisberger (one) captured six of the NFL’s last eight passing yardage titles. They shared the crown in 2014.
Another who could’ve been considered to be a legitimate threat to win the title was Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. But he announced his retirement at the age of 29 on the eve of the NFL season. Luck finished fifth in passing yardage last season.
Brutal year for QBs.
— Luck: Retired
— Eli: Benched
— Darnold: Mono
— Foles: Broken collarbone
— Brees: Torn thumb ligament
— Cam: No timeline on foot injury
— Ben: Season-ending elbow injury pic.twitter.com/z0E5jNhEoU
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 17, 2019
Eli Manning of the New York Giants, who finished ninth overall in 2018, was recently benched by his team.
Could There Be a Brady Bunch?
Looming quietly in ninth spot with 605 yards is three-time NFL passing yardage champion Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. Could a 42-year-old throw for more yards than any QB?
— Austin Bumpus (@AustinBumpus) September 17, 2019
Brady led the league as recently as 2017. At the age of 40, he shattered Fran Tarkenton’s mark as the oldest QB to top the NFL in passing yardage. Tarkenton was 38 when he topped the NFL with the 1978 Minnesota Vikings.
A receiving corps that includes Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon won’t hurt Brady’s cause.
Where Else to Look?
San Diego’s Philip Rivers topped the NFL in 2010 and has twice finished second, most recently in 2017. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan ended up second in 2016. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford was third in 2013 and 2017.
NFL Leaders in Yards Per Attempt:
1. Dak Prescott …………….. 10.9
2. Pat Mahomes …………… 10.7
3. Lamar Jackson …………. 10.5
4. Tom Brady ……………….. 9.5
5. Russell Wilson ………….. 9.0
— Mike Leslie (@MikeLeslieWFAA) September 16, 2019
Certainly, with the start he’s off to, you must give Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys some consideration. Murray has displayed a propensity for airing it out in his first two NFL starts. And it will be interesting in Week 3 to watch Jackson go head-to-head with Mahomes.
Stand With Pat
The expected regression that everyone anticipated following the monster 2018 campaign turned in by Mahomes isn’t materializing. With the injuries to Brees and Roethlisberger, two of his main challengers are already knocked out.
Patrick Mahomes' 821 pass yards through 2 games is the 4th-most since 1970 ? pic.twitter.com/tzg3QCkJ3A
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 18, 2019
After Week 1 of the NFL season, Mahomes was a +300 favorite to led the NFL in passing yards. Ryan was the second betting choice at +550. Brees (+800) was third. Roethlisberger (+1200) was also among the top six.
The odds have come down significantly on Mahomes in a week’s time and only figure to get shorter. His pathway to the title has been cleared. Bet him now or regret it later.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+150).
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