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Mahomes Getting Short +150 Odds to Lead NFL in Passing After Week 2; Is Anyone Else Worth Betting?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 1:11 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes about to pass.
Books have listed Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the +150 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage. Photo from @NFL (Twitter).
  • Sportsbooks list Patrick Mahomes as the +150 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage
  • The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback currently leads the league with 821 yards
  • Mahomes is averaging 410.5 yards per game

Has the path been cleared for Patrick Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing yardage this season?

Books seem to think so.

They’re offering prohibitive +150 odds that Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, will throw for more yards than any NFL passer this season.

2019 NFL Most Passing Yards

Quarterback (Team) 2019 Passing Yardage (NFL Rank) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 821 (1) +150
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 624 (7) +800
Tom Brady (Patriots) 605 (9) +900
Philip Rivers (Chargers) 626 (6) +1200
Andy Dalton (Bengals) 729 (2) +1200
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) 674 (3) +1400
Baker Mayfield (Browns) 610 (8) +1800
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) 657 (4) +1800
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 412 (23) +2000
Matthew Stafford (Lions) 630 (5) +2000

*Odds taken on 09/19/19. 

Mahomes finished second in the NFL last season with 5097 yards.

Mahomes Making His Case

If people were awaiting some sort of sophomore jinx to afflict Mahomes during his second season as Kansas City’s starter, it’s not happening.

He’s picked up right where he left off. Mahomes already holds a 92-yard edge over his closest competitor. He’s completed 14 passes of at least 20 yards in length. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is second in that stat with 12.

On top of that, the KC QB has completed seven balls that went for distances of 40+ yards. Arizona rookie Kyler Murray is the only other passer to hit on at least four completions of 40 or more yards.

In Week 2, Mahomes lit up the Oakland Raiders for Oakland for 443 yards and four touchdowns in a 28-10 victory. It was the second-best game of his NFL career in terms of passing yardage. Last season, Mahomes threw for 478 yards in a 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Against the Raiders, he went off for 278 yards and four TDs in the second quarter alone. It helped earn him the AFC Offensive Player of the Week Award.

Last season, Mahomes joined Peyton Manning of the 2013 Denver Broncos as the only QBs in NFL history to throw for 5000 yards and 50 TDs in the same season.

Contenders Are Dropping Like Flies

In 2018, only Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers (5129) threw for more yardage than Mahomes. That isn’t going to happen this season.

Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury in last week’s 28-26 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll undergo surgery and is done for the season.

The same day, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints suffered a torn ligament in the thumb of his right throwing hand. He also underwent surgery. It’s anticipated that he’ll be out for 6-8 weeks.

Brees is a seven-time NFL passing yardage champion and the league’s all-time leader in passing yards with 74845.

Between them, Brees (five) and Roethlisberger (one) captured six of the NFL’s last eight passing yardage titles. They shared the crown in 2014.

Another who could’ve been considered to be a legitimate threat to win the title was Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. But he announced his retirement at the age of 29 on the eve of the NFL season. Luck finished fifth in passing yardage last season.

Eli Manning of the New York Giants, who finished ninth overall in 2018, was recently benched by his team.

Could There Be a Brady Bunch?

Looming quietly in ninth spot with 605 yards is three-time NFL passing yardage champion Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. Could a 42-year-old throw for more yards than any QB?

Brady led the league as recently as 2017. At the age of 40, he shattered Fran Tarkenton’s mark as the oldest QB to top the NFL in passing yardage. Tarkenton was 38 when he topped the NFL with the 1978 Minnesota Vikings.

A receiving corps that includes Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon won’t hurt Brady’s cause.

Where Else to Look?

San Diego’s Philip Rivers topped the NFL in 2010 and has twice finished second, most recently in 2017. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan ended up second in 2016. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford was third in 2013 and 2017.

Certainly, with the start he’s off to, you must give Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys some consideration. Murray has displayed a propensity for airing it out in his first two NFL starts. And it will be interesting in Week 3 to watch Jackson go head-to-head with Mahomes.

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Stand With Pat

The expected regression that everyone anticipated following the monster 2018 campaign turned in by Mahomes isn’t materializing. With the injuries to Brees and Roethlisberger, two of his main challengers are already knocked out.

After Week 1 of the NFL season, Mahomes was a +300 favorite to led the NFL in passing yards. Ryan was the second betting choice at +550. Brees (+800) was third. Roethlisberger (+1200) was also among the top six.

The odds have come down significantly on Mahomes in a week’s time and only figure to get shorter. His pathway to the title has been cleared. Bet him now or regret it later.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+150).

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