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Malcolm Brown Week 2 Props: Odds Against Rams Backup RB Finding End Zone

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Sep 12, 2019 · 7:11 AM PDT

Is Malcolm Brown in for another good day against the Saints in Week 2? Photo from @GridironExperts (Twitter)
  • Sportsbooks are offering Malcolm Brown rushing yards and touchdown props
  • Brown played 27% of the Rams offensive snaps in Week 1 and scored two touchdowns
  • He’ll face a Saints defense that gave up 180 rushing yards to the Texans on Monday Night Football

Todd Gurley is no longer a bellcow running back as the Rams look to preserve his knees, which means Malcolm Brown is going to continue to get work.

Brown made the most of his opportunities in Week 1 and online sportsbooks believe he’ll produce once again in Week 2 against the Saints.

Malcolm Brown Week 2 Props

Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
Rushing Yards 47.5 -115 -115
Total TD 0.5 +120 -150

All odds taken 09/11/19.

Brown’s Week 2 rushing yards prop is set at 47.5, which is high for a backup running back, but not surprising given his usage last week against the Panthers. He’s an underdog to find the end zone versus the Saints, but his touchdown odds are shorter than you’d expect in large part due to runs like this:

He played on 27% of the Rams offensive snaps and earned 11 carries in a highly competitive game. The Rams number two back had just four fewer touches than Gurley and averaged 4.8 yards per rush, which is right in line with his stats from 2018.

Malcolm Brown Week 1 2019 vs 2018 Rushing Stats

Week 1
VS
2018
11 Rush Attempts 43
53 Total Rushing Yards 212
4.8 Yards Per Carry 4.9
2 Total TD 1

As long as he continues to get volume he’s going to produce. Rams backup running backs have averaged 13.5 carries in the last four games that Gurley has been active for and there’s no reason to expect that to change with a mouth watering matchup on deck.

The Saints Are a Dream Matchup

New Orleans is fresh off surrendering a combined 180 yards to Houston’s running back duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson, two players the Browns had no use for. Pro Football Focus graded them as the fourth worst run defense in Week 1 and they’re at a severe disadvantage against a Rams offensive line that propelled LA to 166 yards on the ground in Carolina.

Hyde ripped the Saints for 83 yards on just 10 carries and profiles very similarly to Brown with one glaring exception. Brown’s agility is leaps and bounds ahead of Hyde’s, and that key measurable helped him earn PFF’s number one elusive rating among running backs in Week 1.

He also averaged the second most broken tackles per attempt last week and if a castoff like Hyde can torch New Orleans, Brown should have no problem eclipsing 47.5 rushing yards.

A Red Zone Threat

When the Rams got inside the Panthers 20 yard line last week, it was Brown, not Gurley who carried the load. Brown out touched Gurley 5-1 in the red zone and converted two of those touchdowns into scores.

LA repeatedly subbed out Gurley near the goal line during last season’s playoffs and so far this season that pattern has continued. The Rams ran the ball inside their opponents 20 at the fourth highest rate in 2018 which should present plenty of opportunities for Brown to punch in another score.

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