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Melvin Gordon Week 5 Props: Get +120 Odds on RB Scoring a Touchdown

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Oct 4, 2019 · 3:56 PM PDT

Melvin Gordon walking off the field
Melvin Gordon is set to make his season debut on Sunday. Will he score a touchdown? Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • Melvin Gordon is set to return from his holdout in Week 5 vs Denver
  • The question now is: how much will he play?
  • We explore some props surrounding Gordon’s return

After ending his holdout last week, there was speculation that LA Charger running back Melvin Gordon would play against the Dolphins in Week 4.

While he didn’t log a touch, Gordon is officially back with the Chargers and, by all accounts, ready to go for Week 5. The 2015 first-round pick will make his season debut against the Denver Broncos this Sunday (Oct. 6, 1:00 PM ET).

In anticipation of his first carry, we broke down a couple of props surrounding the Chargers’ Week 5 matchup.

 O/U Melvin Gordon Rushing and Receiving Yards

Outcome Odds
Over 75.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards -115
Under 75.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards -115

*Odds taken 10/03/2019.

The tricky thing here is figuring out how much Melvin Gordon will be used in this first game back.

If you believe Gordon’s camp, then he’s in game shape. Despite announcing that he’s “ready”, Gordon didn’t receive any touches against Miami.

Now he has two weeks of practice under his belt ahead of his first game.

But he also has to deal with the red-hot Austin Ekeler.

CBS Fantasy had a breakdown of what the Chargers’ offense looked like with both Ekeler and Gordon in the lineup last year:

In 2018, Gordon and Ekeler played 12 full games together, including the playoffs. In those games, Gordon averaged 18.8 touches per game and Ekeler averaged eight.

That kind of dispersal won’t happen on Sunday, as Ekeler has dominated touches and gotten results.

LA Chargers RB Touches

‘Austin
VS
‘Other
12/6 Week 1 (Rush/Rec) 8/1
17/6 Week 2 (Rush/Rec) 7/1
9/7 Week 3 (Rush/Rec) 6/4
18/5 Week 4 (Rush/Rec) 10/2

If he was struggling, that’s one thing. But Ekeler’s progress this year means that Gordon doesn’t have to return to a full workload before he’s ready.

Then we have to consider how the Broncos are playing defensively.

Denver Broncos: Touches and Yards Allowed to RBs

Week Carries Rushing Yards Catches Receiving Yards Total TD
Week 1 vs OAK 26 96 1 28 2
Week 2 vs CHI 25 81 3 13 1
Week 3 @ GB 22 78 3 31 2
Week 4 vs JAX 37 276 3 27 1

Leonard Fournette torched them last week, and Denver is allowing 4.89 YPC to running backs with 10+ carries in a game.

With Ekeler taking over some of Melvin Gordon’s receiving work too, we’re inclined to go under in Gordon’s season debut. Until we hear otherwise, we’re expecting a conservative snap count.

The Pick: UNDER 75.5 YARDS (-115)

Odds Melvin Gordon Scores a TD

Outcome Odds
Yes +120
No -150

*Odds taken 10/03/2019

Melvin Gordon can claim to be in as good of shape as he wants to, but nothing simulates game action. We don’t see him breaking any long touchdown runs.

And honestly, that’s not really what the Chargers’ offense has provided this year, anyways.

What they have done, though, is get into the red zone. Eight of LA’s 10 touchdowns this season have come inside the opponent’s 20. Three of those have come on the ground.

Despite a depleted receiving corps, Philip Rivers can drive this offense down to the goal-line. And after waiting all offseason for him, the Chargers will likely let Melvin Gordon take a couple of cracks at the end zone.

The Pick: YES (+120)

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