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Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Lines & Picks NFL Playoffs Saturday Night

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 13, 2024 · 3:01 PM PST

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 4.5-point home favorites over Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in their NFL Wild Card Weekend playoff game.
Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany, ; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) after an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 4.5-point home favorites over the Miami Dolphins in their NFL Wild Card Weekend game on Saturday, January 13
  • Kansas City is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the last four games against Miami
  • The Chiefs were 21-14 winners over the Dolphins in a Week 9 meeting played in Frankfurt, Germany. Are they the best bet once again in the Dolphins vs Chiefs picks?

If history played a role in NFL playoff futures, the Miami Dolphins (11-6, 9-7-1 ATS) would be in good stead as they face the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, 9-7-1 ATS) in their Wild Card Weekend clash despite being underdogs in the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds.

This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams in the NFL postseason. So far, Miami is 3-0 straight up in those games. The only prior time the Dolphins were underdogs facing the Chiefs in the postseason, they covered and won outright as 3-point underdogs at Kansas City in a 27-24 double overtime victory in 1971 that many oldtimers will argue was the greatest game in NFL history.

This time Kansas City is set as 4.5-point home favorites in the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds. KC is 4-0 SU and 3-1 against the spread in the last four games against Miami. That includes a 21-14 Week 9 victory this season.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Miami Dolphins +195 +4.5 (-110) Over 43.5 (-105)
Kansas City Chiefs -230 -4.5 (-110) Under 43.5 (-115)

In the Miami vs Kansas City odds, the Chiefs are -225 moneyline favorites, giving them a 69.23% implied win probability. The total is set at 43.5 points. The last three Dolphins vs Chiefs games played in Kansas City all went under.

This total was sitting at 44.5 entering Saturday, so sportsbooks have received enough money on the under to drop the total a full point. The weather forecast has bettors very skeptical of points being put up in Arrowhead.


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Kickoff for this game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 13, is set for 8:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by NBC Peacock.

Miami vs Kansas City Betting Trends

In the NFL public betting splits at the time of this writing, the people are displaying slightly more faith in Kansas City. The favored Chiefs are drawing 48% of spread handle and 75% of moneyline bets. Miami, however, is receiving 48% of ML handle with just 48% of bets.

Miami is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games at Kansas City. The Chiefs are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games when facing an AFC opponent.

Each of Kansas City’s last five home games have gone under. However, 12 of Miami’s last 16 away games hit on the over.

The Chiefs are the fifth betting choice in the Super Bowl odds at +1000. The Dolphins are set with seventh-best odds of +1800 to win the Super Bowl.

Dolphins-Chiefs Injury Report

The latest Dolphins vs Chiefs injury report sees two prominent receivers listed as questionable, including Miami’s Jaylen Waddle and Kanas City’s Kadarius Toney.

In terms of a Tyreek Hill injury update, the ex-Chief didn’t get an injury designation going into this contest despite dealing with ankle and quad injuries. There’s no certainty he’s 100% despite this news, however.

Miami Dolphins Injury Report:
  • De’Von Achane, RB: Questionable
  • Terron Armstead, T: Questionable
  • DeShon Elliott, S: Questionable (calf)
  • Liam Eichenberg, G: Questionable
  • Xavien Howard, CB: Out (foot)
  • Jevon Holland, S: Questionable (knees)
  • Raheem Mostert, RB: Questionable (knee, ankle)
  • Jalen Ramsey, CB: Questionable
  • Jaylen Waddle, WR: Questionable (ankle)
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report:
  • Wanya Morris, T: Out (concussion)
  • Justyn Ross, WR: Questionable (hamstring)
  • Donovan Smith, T: Questionable
  • Kadarius Toney, WR: Questionable (hip, ankle)

Dolphins vs Chiefs Weather Forecast

Snow is currently blanketing Kansas City. The latest weather forecast for Saturday’s game is projecting a temperature of -5 degrees. If so, it will be the coldest game either team has played in franchise history. Factor in the wind chill and there’s a potential for it to feel like -20 down on the field.

Kansas City is 10-0 SU in the last 10 games when playing in temperatures of 40 degrees or lower. This streak includes a 4-0 SU mark during postseason play. This dominance is something we have in mind for our Dolphins-Chiefs same-game parlay.

On the other hand, Miami is 0-10 SU the last 10 times the Dolphins have played in temperatures below 40 degrees. They’ve lost those 10 games by an average margin of 17 points. That includes a 29-13 loss at KC on Christmas Eve 2017 when the game-time temperature was 23 degrees.

Is It a Hill Too Far for Tyreek?

This will be the return to Kansas City for former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. He’s enjoyed a season for the ages this year. Hill led the NFL in receiving yardage (1,799) and TD receptions (13).

However, when he met up with the Chiefs for that Week 9 game in Germany, Hill endured one of his most pedestrian outings of the season. The Kansas City defense limited him to eight receptions from 10 targets for a paltry 62 yards and no TDs.

At one point this season, Hill was trending toward posting the first 2,000-yard receiving campaign in NFL history. However, he’s failed to top 100 yards in any of his past four games and has just one TD catch during that span. Something to consider when betting the weekend’s Dolphins vs Chiefs props.

While Hill was deemed a limited participant in practice throughout the week due to his two listed injuries, he’s not expected to face significant restrictions as he faces his former team for the second time this season

Chiefs vs Dolphins Prediction

At home, with a chance to clinch the AFC East title and a Wild Card Weekend game at home in balmy Miami, the Dolphins lost to the Buffalo Bills. They were 1-5 SU against teams with winning records during regular season play.

This season, the woeful 4-13 New England Patriots won more games against 2023-24 NFL playoff teams (two) than Miami did (one).

Try and picture these Dolphins winning on the road in the playoffs. Now, try and picture the Dolphins winning on the road in the playoffs when they’ll be watching their breath crystalize before their very eyes.

You can’t do it. Lock in the Chiefs at -4.5 when making your Miami vs Kansas City prediction.

Chiefs vs Dolphins Picks: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)


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