Michael Thomas Favored to Lead NFL In Receiving Again, Chris Godwin & Amari Cooper Given Short Odds
- Michael Thomas is the favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +450
- After an initial adjustment period with a new quarterback, Thomas is again getting the lion’s share of the targets in New Orleans
- Chris Godwin and Amari Cooper both made huge jumps in the odds, and now sit at +700 and +750 respectively
After a huge game against Tampa Bay in Week 5, Michael Thomas regained the top spot in the odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards.
It’s an exciting race that is far from over, but the Saints wideout certainly has a leg up on the rest of the pack at the moment.
Odds to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
| Receiver | Receiving Yards (League Rank) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas (Saints) | 543 (1st) | +450 |
| Cooper Kupp (Rams) | 505 (4th) | +650 |
| Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) | 511 (3rd) | +700 |
| Keenan Allen (Chargers) | 470 (6th) | +750 |
| Amari Cooper (Cowboys) | 512 (2nd) | +750 |
| DJ Chark (Jaguars) | 485 (5th) | +1000 |
| Mike Evans (Buccaneers) | 368 (17th) | +1600 |
| Julio Jones (Falcons) | 359 (20th) | +1600 |
| Davante Adams (Packers) | 378 (14th) | +1800 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (Browns) | 335 (29th) | +1800 |
*Odds as of 10/10/19
Just a week ago, Thomas was at third in these odds. However, an 11-catch, 182 yard game put him right back at the top spot. He also added 2 touchdowns just for good measure.
Thomas Back at the Top
For Thomas bettors, there was initial concern after the injury to Drew Brees. The wideout had been the favorite all the way back in Week 1, but it looked like a drop-off was coming.
In the first start for Teddy Bridgewater, Week 3 vs. Seattle, Thomas’ targets were cut nearly in half. However, with Bridgewater gaining confidence on a weekly basis, Thomas has been the beneficiary.
Brees will still be out a few more weeks, but any concern about a significant Thomas lull has been quelled.
😍 @Cantguardmike's route running >>>>
(via @saints) pic.twitter.com/jNujQaMM3e
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 6, 2019
Godwin Makes Big Leap
In the same game that Michael Thomas reasserted his standing at the top, Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin also made a statement of his own. On a day in which fellow receiver Mike Evans was completely shut down, Godwin had 7 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsZSEXjlJBw
While Godwin is one of the biggest movers in this week’s odds, there are still several factors that keep him from being a safe bet. His quarterback, Jameis Winston, is anything but a guarantee. He’s played well in recent weeks, but can he play like that consistently? History says no.
Godwin also will still have to split targets with Evans, as well. In a surprising development, Godwin has gotten more targets than Evans in all but one game in 2019, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t having to share.
Other receivers at the top of the odds play with a good receiving corps, but none of them are splitting targets with a player of Evans’ caliber. Down the stretch, that will certainly be a factor in Godwin’s numbers.
Cooper Vaults Into Top Five
While Godwin was a big mover in his own right, it is Amari Cooper who made the biggest splash after Week 5. Against Green Bay, he caught 11 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown. After not even being in the top 10 a week ago, he now find himself tied for 4th with Keenan Allen of the Chargers at +750.
Amari Cooper Game Log
| Opponent (Pass Yards Allowed Per Game Rank) | Catches | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| NYG (28) | 6 | 106 |
| WAS (23) | 4 | 44 |
| MIA (31) | 6 | 88 |
| NO (19) | 5 | 48 |
| GB (14) | 11 | 226 |
Cooper has vaulted into 2nd place in yardage, but the sustainability of that is questionable. This first five weeks of the schedule has featured the tanking Dolphins, the poor Giants defense, and the Redskins who became the first team in 2019 to fire their head coach.
His production has been inconsistent, and the Cowboys have only faced one team that ranks in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed per game. The remaining schedule features the 1st-ranked Patriots, 3rd-ranked Bills, and 6th-ranked Vikings, along with the 11th-ranked Bears, led by the league’s scariest pass rusher in Khalil Mack.
The Cowboy passing game, and Cooper, have gotten off to a fantastic start, there’s no denying that. However, a big regression to the mean is due in the coming weeks.
What’s the Best Bet?
Chalk can be boring, but it’s hard not to revisit Michael Thomas right here. Despite a two-week drop-off in targets, and injury to his starting quarterback, he’s already leading the league. What is truly exciting about Thomas is that conditions are getting even better.
He was already Brees’ favorite target, but now he has become Bridgewater’s safety net. Against Tampa Bay last week, the backup went to Thomas 13 times in the 31-24 win.
Until Brees returns, Thomas will be leaned on by the offense. When Brees does return, the connection with Thomas should be rekindled to great effect. That pairing resulted in Thomas leading the NFL in receptions a year ago, and in 2019, it has a very good chance of leading the league in yards.
With four years as radio host with The Ticket Sports Network and various written contributions to publications such as Fansided, Southbound and Down, and Last Word on Sports, Jake Mitchell comes to SBD with NFL, NBA, NCAAM, NCAAF and MMA know-how you can count on.
