NFL MVP Odds Update After Week 2 – Allen Favored, Purdy Surging, Jackson Fading

One of the biggest stories of the early NFL season is Josh Allen’s stranglehold on the MVP market. The Buffalo Bills quarterback has surged to a commanding +250 in the NFL MVP odds, separating himself from the field after guiding Buffalo to a 2-0 start. Allen is averaging 291 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game with zero interceptions and a blistering 125.8 passer rating plus 92 rushing yards and another four TDs on the ground.

Perennial contenders like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson remain firmly in the mix, while Brock Purdy has emerged as a legitimate threat behind an elite San Francisco offense. Meanwhile, several high-profile names have seen their odds crater. Below, I will break down the full landscape of the race, identifying the biggest risers and fallers.

NFL MVP Odds After Week 2

“Current odds” from FanDuel as of Sep 22. Check out the available Super Bowl betting promos.

Two notable names are absent from the board entirely. Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Jayden Daniels (elbow) are both off the board after suffering injuries in Week 2. Williams, who had been generating early buzz after his bears dropped a 59-burger on Carolina in Week 1, saw his price at prediction market Kalshi crater from 13 cents to 4 cents. Daniels tumbled from 4 cents to 1 cent. Their return timetables will be worth monitoring closely.

The rest of the legitimate contenders sit in the single-digit implied probability range, largely dominated by quarterbacks. Non-quarterbacks like Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and Kenneth Walker III linger further down the board as deep longshots, though the running back presence on this year’s board is notably robust.

Biggest NFL MVP Risers

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+250)
Allen has rocketed to the top of the MVP board and it is easy to see why. Through two games, he is averaging 291.0 passing yards per game with 2.5 touchdowns and zero interceptions, producing a 125.8 passer rating. The Bills are a perfect 2-0 with a plus-15 point differential, ranking fifth in the AFC. Allen’s combination of elite efficiency and team success makes him the clear frontrunner.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+900)
Purdy has made a significant leap among legitimate MVP contenders. He is exceptionally efficient, completing 80.4 percent of his passes while averaging 246.0 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and just 0.5 interceptions per game. This produces a pristine 125.6 passer rating. The 49ers have secured a flawless 2-0 record with a league-best plus-42 point differential, reinforcing his candidacy.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (+3000)
The Saints quarterback has been one of the early-season surprises, leading the league with 331.0 passing yards per game through two starts. Shough is completing 68.9 percent of his passes with 2.0 touchdowns and 1.0 interception per game, generating a 95.7 passer rating. New Orleans sits at 1-1, but his volume and production have been impossible to ignore, earning him a spot at +3000.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (+8000)
Young has emerged as a dark horse after opening the season with explosive production. He is averaging 324.0 passing yards per game with 3.0 touchdowns and only 0.5 interceptions, good for a 113.3 passer rating. The Panthers hold a 1-1 record with a plus-9 point differential, and Young’s efficient play has breathed new life into his MVP candidacy.

Biggest NFL MVP Fallers

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks (+22500)
Darnold’s MVP candidacy has cratered due to an unfortunate early-season injury. After entering the opener as Seattle’s starter, Darnold was forced out after just two pass attempts (completing one for 13 yards) and was deactivated for Week 2. Backup Drew Lock stepped in seamlessly and sparked the offense, averaging 211.0 passing yards per game with four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 127.3 passer rating while leading Seattle to a 2-0 start.

With his timetable for return uncertain and Lock holding the fort, Darnold’s odds have plummeted from a +2700 open all the way out to +22500.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (+2200)
Sitting at competitive +1500 odds after Week 1, Love has drifted to +2200. While he is generating 266.0 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game, a lackluster 52.1 percent completion rate has dragged his passer rating down to 89.6. Green Bay sits at 1-1 with a minus-14 point differential—tied for 13th in the NFC—as the defense’s 56 points allowed through two weeks has dampened his early MVP buzz.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+900)
Jackson faed to +750 after Week 1 and has drifted slightly further to +900 after his Ravens suffered a massive upset at home against New Orleans in Week 2. While his individual production remains elite – averaging 279.5 passing yards per game with 10.0 yards per attempt and a 104.7 passer rating – the loss to the Saints does a lot of damage to his narrative. Baltimore’s plus-11 point differential ranks seventh in the AFC, and oddsmakers have made minor downward adjustments to reflect the team’s split start.