NFL MVP Odds After Week 9 – Burrow, Allen Neck-and-Neck; Who’s Favored?

The NFL MVP odds underwent a massive shift after Week 9, which saw the likes of Joe Burrow and Jordan Love absolutely torch their opponents, while other contenders had pedestrian (or worse) weeks: looking at you, Caleb Williams.

The table below lists the current NFL MVP favorites, juxtaposing their odds today with their odds at this time last week.

Updated NFL MVP Odds (Week 9)

“Current Odds” from DraftKings on Nov 10. “Last Week” odds from DraftKings on Nov 3.

Biggest NFL MVP Risers

After both had massive Week 9 performances, Jordan Love and Joe Burrow shot up the board, Burrow to the apex and Love to the top four.

Jordan Love (+2500 to +650)

Jordan Love orchestrated the most dramatic odds surge across the entire futures board between Week 9 and Week 10, skyrocketing from a +2500 long shot directly into the top four contenders at +650. Love torched the Patriots for 372 yards, three touchdowns, zero INTs, and a 153.2 passer rating on the road during a lopsided 45-27 upset victory.

Love has shredded opposing secondaries with top-tier passer rating metrics, pristine pocket distribution, and exceptional third-down conversion rates. With his implied probability vaulting from a modest 3.8% up to an imposing 13.3%, oddsmakers are aggressively acknowledging Love as a genuine threat to capture the league’s top individual honor if the Packers continue their division-winning trajectory.

Joe Burrow (+475 to +210)

While Josh Allen occupied pole position for much of the autumn, Joe Burrow has now made an authoritative jump to the top of the board, slashing his price more than in half from +475 to +210. Burrow’s leap into co-favorite status is driven by raw, undeniable production: he commands an offense generating nearly 30 points per game, orchestrates the league’s most lethal third-down conversion unit (52.9%), and consistently posts 300-plus passing yards with multi-touchdown equity.

In Week 9, he lit up Atlanta for 271 yards on 24-of-29 passing with three TDs, no picks, and another major on the ground. Voters and books alike recognize that Burrow is carrying Cincinnati’s postseason push on his arm, elevating his implied probability from 17.4% to a market-leading 32.3%.

Biggest NFL MVP Fallers

A trio of pivots saw their NFL MVP odds crater after Week 9.

Caleb Williams (+500 to +1600)

On the other side of the ledger, Caleb Williams suffered the steepest drop among primary front-runners, tumbling from +500 down to +1600. Just seven days ago, Williams sat with a 16.7% implied probability to become a historic rookie MVP winner on the heels of Chicago’s electric start. The reason is plain as day: he threw four interceptions in an ugly 27-24 win over Tampa Bay.

Now sitting at roughly a 5.9% implied probability, Williams remains firmly on the fringe; he will need a string of statement primetime wins against top-tier defenses to claw back into the top-tier conversation.

Drake Maye (+1500 to +4500)

Few candidates saw their candidacies take a harder hit this week than Drake Maye, whose price tripled from a manageable +1500 long-shot bet out to an afterthought at +4500. His implied probability plummeted from 6.3% to barely 2.2%. While New England’s success on the field has been one of the league’s bright spots, the market is pricing out Maye’s volume ceiling: the Patriots’ run-heavy identity behind Rhamondre Stevenson and a methodical, ball-control game script severely cap Maye’s raw counting stats.

Without the gaudy passing yardage or multi-score aerial outbursts that traditional MVP voters demand, Maye’s futures traction has evaporated.

Patrick Mahomes (+1700 to +3000)

Patrick Mahomes watched his odds drift from +1700 to +3000 during a bye week. The price mirrors Kansas City’s offensive identity this season. The Chiefs have increasingly leaned into situational defense and power-rushing sequences near the goal line, severely muting Mahomes’ weekly touchdown totals (failing to exceed 2.5 passing scores in four of his last five outings).

With his implied probability dropping to just 3.2%, books are openly indicating that Kansas City’s path to contention won’t generate the eye-popping statistical narrative needed to capture another MVP trophy.