NFC Championship Player Props: Rams vs Saints

• The Rams rumble down to the Bayou to face the Saints for the NFC Championship
• The Rams and Saints combined for 70 points in Week 9, can they come close to matching that total?
• Have a look at three of the most intriguing prop bets available

After a dominant run game propelled the NFC #2 seed Los Angeles Rams to a victory in last week’s Divisional Round, they head down to New Orleans to face the #1 Saints, who come off a strong defensive performance in a win of their own last week against a solid Cowboy squad.

Lets have a look at three prop bets that caught my eye.

Prop #1: Rams Longest Touchdown

Two of the NFL’s most explosive offenses face off in the NFC Championship game on Sunday, January 20th at 3:05 p.m. ET.

Looking at explosive plays alone (runs over 15, passes over 20) the Rams finished second behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. They managed 73 explosive plays over 16 regular season games. The Saints finished a respectable fifth in the explosive play category, finishing up with 60 over 16 games.

Offensive Coordinators pride themselves on creating EXPLOSIVE PLAYS!#ChiefsKingdom #LARams #FightForEachOther #GoBucs #GoSaints #BroncosCountry #InBrotherhood #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/f1vO0o8RIJ

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 21, 2018

In the teams last five games (we will exclude Week 17 for the Saints as Brees did not play) the Rams hold a considerable edge in big plays. In the last five Drew Brees starts, the Saints offense managed only one play over 30 yards which did not go for a TD.  It was a 42 yard Alvin Kamara reception. In that same time frame, the Rams offense broke five plays that gained over 30 yards.

The frequency in which the Rams have been able to break explosive plays gives them a nice advantage in this prop bet as judging by the numbers I would expect the odds to be reversed.

Prop #2: First Type of Score

All stats and hard physical proof is out the door on this bet. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. +165 for a score to start the game that is anything other than a TD is too appealing for me to pass up. Sure, you could argue the Saints scored 60 total touchdowns while only attempting 30 field goals and the Rams similarly scored 60 TDs while attempting 41 field goals, but both offenses have struggled as of late after hot starts.

The Saints were fortunate their defense kept them in last week’s Divisional Round match up, as the offense wasn’t able to muster up their first points of the contest until the 7:28 mark of the second quarter. They have only scored 115 points over their last six games. Not even 20 points per game. In their first 11 games they averaged over 37 PPG. To say their offense hasn’t quite looked the same would be an understatement.

Since their Week 12 bye the Rams have averaged 28 PPG.  Previous to their bye they were on a 35 PPG pace.

The Rams offense has seen similar struggles as of late. Since their Week 12 bye the Rams have averaged 28 PPG.  Previous to their bye they were on a 35 PPG pace. Kicker Greg Zuerlein has led off the Rams scoring in three of their last six contests.

With both offenses not quite performing up to their early season standards, I don’t envision the 70 point scoring fest the teams put up in Week 9. Less touchdowns should lead to a few more field goal attempts and if the divisional round is any indication I’m leaning to the +165 for any other score to open the game after the teams combined for seven field goal tries last week.

3rd FG of the night from Greg Zuerlein.#DallasCowboys 7#LARams 23

10:03 remaining in the 3rd quarter.#DALvsLAR

— LastWordOnNFL (@LastWordOnNFL) January 13, 2019

Prop #3: Total Field Goals

All that applies for my #2 prop bet applies for number 3.

Since the Rams’ Week 12 bye, Greg “The Leg” Zuerlein is 14 of 17 on field goal tries. He is averaging 2.3 FG made per game in that span.

Will Lutz attempts much less FGs then the leg but is still 14 for 16 on FG tries over Drew Brees’s last 8 starts. So he is averaging 1.75 makes per game over that time frame.

Simple math 2.3 plus 1.75 equals 4.05 gives us enough of an advantage to look at the over set for this game at 3.5 total field goals. The fact the game is in the Superdome matching up two of the league’s best offenses adds some reassurance.

Good luck and enjoy the Championship Round of the playoffs!