- The Chicago Bears traded a fourth-round pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for Nick Foles earlier in the offseason
- Originally, Foles was a -150 favorite to be the Week 1 starter but now Mitchell Trubisky is at -130
- Who is the best bet to get the Week 1 nod?
The Chicago Bears made a big move in the offseason to acquire quarterback Nick Foles. Most pundits initially assumed that he would be the team’s starting quarterback from the jump, but that’s still up for debate.
In fact, since March, the odds have flipped. Foles was a -150 favorite with Trubisky coming back at +110. Now the fourth-year incumbent is the slight chalk.
Odds to Start at QB for Bears in Week 1, 2020
Odds taken June 29.
Bears Paid Big Price For Foles
If we’re reading the tea leaves, it would appear that Foles should be the starting quarterback. The Bears traded a fourth-round pick for him and also declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option. That combined with the fact that Trubisky was mostly a failure last season indicates that the team has seen enough of him. Those circumstances explain why Foles was originally favored to start Week 1.
Nagy wanted Foles
Flip wanted Foles
Lazor wanted Foles
Pace wanted Trubisky
Pace was never gonna bring in a clear upgrade. Nagy was never not gonna bring in his guy. They were always gonna give Tru one last shot.
I hope Cam balls out in NE pic.twitter.com/oWBAASSGHr
— illwill (@79illwill) June 29, 2020
The bottom line in Chicago is that, while the team was one of the league’s Cinderellas in 2018, they were such a disappointment in 2019 that the front office and coaching staff are now on the hot seat.
They need to produce winning results. Going back to Trubisky, a quarterback who was 28th in QBR last season, doesn’t seem to make sense.
Ginn Jr. Predicts Trubisky Will Be Starter
Surprising comments from offseason free-agent pickup Ted Ginn Jr may be impacting the line movement. The speedy wideout has made a couple of statements about Trubisky returning as the team’s starter. Although his first comments were made when he originally signed, he’s since made a direct prediction that Trubisky will start Week 1.
Trubisky certainly hasn’t progressed as hoped during his first three years in the league, but it is possible that the acquisition of Foles might light a fire under him. Maybe Trubisky works extra hard on his game now and emerges as a better player. After all, he’s only entering his fourth season and he’s just 25 years old. There is still time.
And so do I
Appearing on Good Morning Football, Bears WR Ted Ginn Jr. stated he believes Mitchell Trubisky will be the team's starter.
— Michael Lombardi (@mlombardiNFL) June 24, 2020
That “insider” vote of confidence from Ginn Jr. is probably why we see Trubisky favored. The challenge is that Trubisky has always teased greatness – even dating back to his college days at North Carolina. There is a reason why so many scouts thought he was a bit of an enigma: he’s never been consistent. Even in his solid 2018 campaign, Trubisky struggled with turnovers and (mostly) wasn’t great against elite teams.
The other issue is he’s proven to be mentally frail. It wouldn’t surprise many people if Trubisky came in, played well for a few weeks but once he makes that bad interception or takes a bad sack, the “here we go again” narrative will return. He hasn’t been great handling that part of quarterbacking as evidenced by him asking to turn off the televisions in the Bears compound last season to block out criticism.
What’s The Best Bet?
There are some varying prices on the board. Some sportsbooks have Trubisky favored while others have Foles as short as -400 to be the starting quarterback in Week 1. I’m in the camp that Foles is the sure-fire Week 1 starter, so there is good value on the board with him here.
The Bears are a team that could be competitive if their quarterbacking is league-average. Foles can do that. The key is to make the basic throws, avoid the turnovers, and move the chains. Trubisky has already proven he can’t do that consistently. A front office and coaching staff that needs results won’t be giving him the first shot here – especially after trading assets for Foles.
Pick: Foles (-110)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.