Odds of Lamar Jackson Breaking Michael Vick’s Single-Season Rushing Record for a QB Set at +200
- Lamar Jackson currently has +200 odds to break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing yards record
- Jackson is averaging nearly 12 more yards per game than Vick did in 2006
- Jackson is on pace to break Vick’s record by nearly 200 yards
Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic young players in the league, and he is having a special 2019 season. He’s throwing the ball well, but on the ground, he could end up having a historic year.
Two Jackson-related prop bets have been released. The fleet-footed pivot has -120 odds to surpass the 1,000-yard mark, but is a +200 longshot to break the record for rushing yards in a season by a QB.
Lamar Jackson Total Rushing Yards
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1,000 | -120 |
| Under 1,000 | -120 |
*Odds taken 10/16/19
The over is the play here. Jackson is on pace for 1,226 yards (averaging 76.67 yards per game). With 460 yards through six games, he only needs 540 in the next 10 to hit 1,000. In other words, he needs to average 54 rushing yards per game the rest of the way to hit the over.
In 13 career starts, he’s only been held under 54 yards three times. He could significantly regress and still reach 1,000 rushing yards. If he stays healthy, he’ll get there.
Pick: Over 1,000 (-120)
Odds Jackson to Breaks Vick’s Single-Season Rushing Yards Record
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +200 |
| No | -300 |
*Odds taken 10/16/19
Michael Vick’s QB rushing record in his historic 2006 season was 1,039 yards. Jackson doesn’t need to go much beyond the over in the first prop to set a new record. Yet, the Ravens quarterback currently has +200 odds to set a new mark.
Jackson is currently on pace to obliterate Vick’s record. Vick averaged 64.9 yards per game in 2006, while Jackson is at a 76.7 YPG clip. He only needs to average 57.9 yards per game over the remaining 10 games to get to 1,040.
Lamar Jackson vs Michael Vick
| 76.7 | Avg. Rushing Yards Per Game | 64.9 |
| 460 | Rushing Yards Through First 6 Weeks | 441 |
| 1,227 (on pace for) | Total Rushing Yards | 1,039 |
There are no signs that Jackson is going to slow down, outside of the omnipresent injury concerns for a player who is in harm’s way as often as he is.
Against Cincinnati on Sunday, he had his biggest game of the season. Jackson carried the ball 19 times for 152 yards and a touchdown.
That’s a 21-yard TOUCHDOWN for @Lj_Era8! pic.twitter.com/2RQGOtRFGT
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 13, 2019
His lowest rushing total of the year came in Week 1 against Miami with only six yards, but that was a rare instance of Baltimore going pass-heavy against potentially the worst team in NFL history.
In competitive games, Jackson’s lowest total was 46 yards against Kansas City. When there’s a respectable defense on the other side of the field, the Ravens need to lean on Jackson’s legs to have success.
Baltimore has quite a few games left against excellent pass defenses (San Francisco, New England, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh all rank top-ten in D-DVOA against the pass). Jim Harbaugh will have little choice but to rely on Jackson as a runner to keep his team in a playoff spot.
Pick: Yes (+200)
With four years as radio host with The Ticket Sports Network and various written contributions to publications such as Fansided, Southbound and Down, and Last Word on Sports, Jake Mitchell comes to SBD with NFL, NBA, NCAAM, NCAAF and MMA know-how you can count on.
