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Odds Against Aaron Rodgers Throwing Another Interception in 2018

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 5, 2020 · 6:22 PM PDT

Aaron Rodgers
Will Aaron Rodgers' remarkable interception total remain at 1? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • Can Aaron Rodgers extend his record-setting interception-less streak through the rest of 2018?
  • His Week 15 game with the Bears is the biggest challenge remaining on the schedule.
  • Get a break down of the available prop bets and best wagers. 

Remember the name Jordan Poyer because, if Vegas is indeed right with their odds, the Bills safety might be the only player to intercept Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in the 2018 season.

With three games left to go, Rodgers has been remarkable (and of course, lucky) to not turn the ball over via interception at this historic rate. He made history last week in the Packers’ win over the Falcons, and my, did he do it in style. This pass is art, folks.

Can he stay interception-free in Green Bay’s final three games?

Green Bay’s Remaining Schedule

Week  Team Current Record INT/G
15 Chicago Bears 9-4 1.92 (1st)
16 New York Jets 4-9 1.0 (T-8th)
17 Detroit Lions 5-8 0.46 (T-28th)

With virtually no hope of making the playoffs, it’s about the only thing watchable about Green Bay down the home stretch. Let’s dive into some odds.

Prop #1: Will Rodgers end the year with just one interception?

Aaron Rodgers Total Interceptions in 2018 Regular Season Odds
Over 1.5 Interceptions -105
Under 1.5 Interceptions -135

This is an ode to the brilliance of Rodgers, as simple regression to the mean tells you that he can’t maintain this streak. For reference, only Tom Brady has thrown two interceptions in a season, and that was his suspension-shortened 2016 campaign, when he played in just 12 games.

It gets better too: Rodgers is going to put his streak up against the Chicago Bears, who last week turned Jared Goff into Nathan Peterman, forcing the LA pivot into a career-high four interceptions as the high-octane Rams were ground to a pulp on Sunday night.

I have the failed props still burned into my mind.

If there’s a game that will test Rodgers’ mettle, this is it. Green Bay’s win over Chicago in Week 1 is actually their best and only remarkable win this season. It’s also just one of two games where the Bears have failed to record an interception.

The pick: I’d like to file this under the ‘don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers’ tab – except that this is the only thing he’s really succeeded at this season. Take the over.

Prop #2: When will Rodgers’ interception-less streak end?

Rodgers Consecutive Pass Attempts Without An Interception Odds
Over 499.5 Attempts -125
Under 499.5 Attempts -115

He’s sitting at 368 consecutive attempts right now. He’d need to average 44 passes per game the final three games for this bet to be realized this season. Currently, through 13 games, he’s been averaging just over 38 attempts.

The Bears lead the league with 25 picks, nearly two per game, but don’t sleep on the lowly New York Jets, who have 13 interceptions in 13 games.

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This is uncharted territory already, but it just seems unthinkable that a QB could go 500 attempts without a deflection, tipped pass or plain bad read leading to an interception.

Then again, Rodgers has not thrown double-digit INTs in a season since 2010. Think that’s unusual? Drew Brees, a first ballot HOFer for the Saints whenever he calls it quits, threw 10-plus picks every year from 2005-2016.

The pick: This could already be Rodgers’ Picasso, and we should appreciate it, but it doesn’t get past this season. Take the under.

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