Odds Say Less Than 3 Field Goals Missed in Divisional Round
- Five field goals were missed or blocked on Wild Card Weekend
- In the Divisional Round, some of the game’s best will be on display
- Will fewer than three field goals be missed this weekend?
We don’t remember the field goals that get made. We remember the misses.
And poor Cody Parkey is going to get remembered for a long, long time.
While his game-winning field goal attempt was ultimately deemed a block, Vegas is drawing a little inspiration from Parkey’s miss. They’re expecting the kicking game to be significantly better come the Divisional Round.
How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed During the Divisional Round?
| How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed During the Divisional Round? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3 | +115 |
| Under 3 | -155 |
Wild Card weekend holdovers Were Successful on Field Goals
Wild Card weekend did a good job of skimming off the kickers that could skew this the other way.
Colts’ kicker Adam Vinatieri lives for the playoffs. Since missing three of his first six career playoff kicks, Vinatieri has gone 53/62. He was 13th in accuracy this season among kickers with 20+ makes.
2018 Kicker Statistics
| Kicker | Regular Season Field Goals Made/Missed | Regular Season Field Goal Percentage | Wild Card Weekend Field Goals Made/Missed | Wild Card Weekend Field Goal Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Vinatieri, IND | 23/27 | 85% | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Badgley, LAC | 15/16 | 94% | 5/6 | 83% |
| Jake Elliott, PHI | 26/31 | 84% | 1/1 | 100% |
| Brett Maher, DAL | 29/36 | 81% | 1/2 | 50% |
The Cowboys’ Brett Maher is farther down, sitting 18th in accuracy of the 20+ club. He was one of the five misses on Wild Card Weekend. He’s been inconsistent, missing kicks in three of his last four games.
#DallasCowboys kicker Brett Maher is no good from 58 yards… would have tied the longest postseason field goal in NFL history… Still 3-3… @NBCDFW @1053thefan
— Pat Doney (@PatDoneyNBC5) January 6, 2019
The Eagles’ Jake Elliott needs no introduction, as he has one of the best legs in the league. He had four misses from Weeks 1-7, but is 16-for-17 since. He hit his lone Wild Card field goal.
The Chargers have used 6 kickers the last 2 seasons. Last year, they missed the playoffs because of how bad they were at that position. This year, they have a 12-0 lead in their first playoff game because an undrafted rookie named Michael Badgley finally became the answer.
— Alden Gonzalez (@Alden_Gonzalez) January 6, 2019
Mike Badgley of the Chargers had the best day of any Wild Card kicker, going 5-for-6. He also had the best season percentage-wise, missing just one of 16 kicks.
Division-Winning Kickers Shine
The Patriots Stephen Gostkowski is the most battle-tested of the four. He was 14th in accuracy in the 20+ club, and is 34-for-38 in the playoffs. The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker was better than Gostkowski, but has missed his lone playoff kick.
2018 Kicker Statistics
| Kicker | Regular Season Field Goals Made/Missed | Regular Season Field Goal Percentage | Career Playoff Field Goals Made/Missed | Career Playoff Field Goal Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Gostkowski, NE | 27/32 | 84% | 34/38 | 90% |
| Harrison Butker, KC | 24/27 | 89% | 0/1 | 0% |
| Will Lutz, NO | 28/30 | 93.3% | 2/3 | 66% |
| Greg Zuerlein, LAR | 27/31 | 87% | N/A | N/A |
Will Lutz has solved the Saints’ long-time kicking problem, going 28-for-30. Lutz has nailed two of his three postseason kicks, all of them coming in domes.
Thank God for Will Lutz. #Saints pic.twitter.com/8e8a8uDJzR
— Nate Williamson (@NateJWSports) January 7, 2019
For the Rams, Greg Zuerlein falls into the Elliott category. He’s got a big leg and missed just four kicks this year, but he’s actually never kicked in the playoffs.
He was placed on Injured Reserve before Week 16 of last year.
Where Will They Be kicking Field Goals?
Divisional Round Playoff Game Locations
| Game | Location | Time (EST) | Wind | Temp (High/Low) | Precipitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs Chiefs | Kansas City, MO | 4:35 pm | 8 MPH | 39/29 | 40% |
| Cowboys vs Rams | Los Angeles, CA | 8:15 pm | 5 MPH | 62/50 | 20% |
| Chargers vs Patriots | Foxborough, MA | 1:05 om | 7 MPH | 30/17 | 20% |
| Eagles vs Saints | New Orleans, LA | 4:40 pm | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Both night games should be fine. The Rams should get good weather and the Saints play in a dome.
Kansas City will be interesting. There’s an 80% chance of precipitation on Friday, and 40% on Saturday, where the winds die down to eight MPH . It’s something to keep in mind, but the field goals will likely be shorter in this one anyways.
As the Patriots welcome the Chargers to Foxboro on Sunday, the forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow and a high of 30 degrees.
— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) January 7, 2019
New England is the biggest wild card. It’ll likely be the coldest of them all, and while the winds are low the chances of precipitation are fluctuating. The forecast is something to watch, as there’s potential they could be hit with a storm.
How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed in the Divisional Round?
Despite the potential for nasty weather in Foxborough, we’re going with the under on this one.
Most of the kickers left are reliable. And it would take a truly down day from any of the lower tier to make the over playable. Trust the legs this weekend.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
