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Odds Say Less Than 3 Field Goals Missed in Divisional Round

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 9:54 AM PDT

Stephen Gostkowski kicking a field goal
Stephen Gostkowski has hit 34 of his 38 career postseason field goals attempts. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License]
  • Five field goals were missed or blocked on Wild Card Weekend
  • In the Divisional Round, some of the game’s best will be on display
  • Will fewer than three field goals be missed this weekend?

We don’t remember the field goals that get made. We remember the misses.

And poor Cody Parkey is going to get remembered for a long, long time.

While his game-winning field goal attempt was ultimately deemed a block, Vegas is drawing a little inspiration from Parkey’s miss. They’re expecting the kicking game to be significantly better come the Divisional Round.

How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed During the Divisional Round?

How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed During the Divisional Round? Odds
Over 3 +115
Under 3 -155

Wild Card weekend holdovers Were Successful on Field Goals

Wild Card weekend did a good job of skimming off the kickers that could skew this the other way.

Colts’ kicker Adam Vinatieri lives for the playoffs. Since missing three of his first six career playoff kicks, Vinatieri has gone 53/62. He was 13th in accuracy this season among kickers with 20+ makes.

2018 Kicker Statistics

Kicker Regular Season Field Goals Made/Missed Regular Season Field Goal Percentage Wild Card Weekend Field Goals Made/Missed Wild Card Weekend Field Goal Percentage
Adam Vinatieri, IND 23/27 85% N/A N/A
Michael Badgley, LAC 15/16 94% 5/6 83%
Jake Elliott, PHI 26/31 84% 1/1 100%
Brett Maher, DAL 29/36 81% 1/2 50%

The Cowboys’ Brett Maher is farther down, sitting 18th in accuracy of the 20+ club. He was one of the five misses on Wild Card Weekend. He’s been inconsistent, missing kicks in three of his last four games.

The Eagles’ Jake Elliott needs no introduction, as he has one of the best legs in the league. He had four misses from Weeks 1-7, but is 16-for-17 since. He hit his lone Wild Card field goal.

Mike Badgley of the Chargers had the best day of any Wild Card kicker, going 5-for-6. He also had the best season percentage-wise, missing just one of 16 kicks.

Division-Winning Kickers Shine

The Patriots Stephen Gostkowski is the most battle-tested of the four. He was 14th in accuracy in the 20+ club, and is 34-for-38 in the playoffs. The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker was better than Gostkowski, but has missed his lone playoff kick.

2018 Kicker Statistics

Kicker Regular Season Field Goals Made/Missed Regular Season Field Goal Percentage Career Playoff Field Goals Made/Missed Career Playoff Field Goal Percentage
Stephen Gostkowski, NE 27/32 84% 34/38 90%
Harrison Butker, KC 24/27 89% 0/1 0%
Will Lutz, NO 28/30 93.3% 2/3 66%
Greg Zuerlein, LAR 27/31 87% N/A N/A

Will Lutz has solved the Saints’ long-time kicking problem, going 28-for-30. Lutz has nailed two of his three postseason kicks, all of them coming in domes.

For the Rams, Greg Zuerlein falls into the Elliott category. He’s got a big leg and missed just four kicks this year, but he’s actually never kicked in the playoffs.

He was placed on Injured Reserve before Week 16 of last year.

Where Will They Be kicking Field Goals?

Divisional Round Playoff Game Locations

Game Location Time (EST) Wind Temp (High/Low) Precipitation
Colts vs Chiefs Kansas City, MO 4:35 pm 8 MPH 39/29 40%
Cowboys vs Rams Los Angeles, CA 8:15 pm 5 MPH 62/50 20%
Chargers vs Patriots Foxborough, MA 1:05 om 7 MPH 30/17 20%
Eagles vs Saints New Orleans, LA 4:40 pm N/A N/A N/A

Both night games should be fine. The Rams should get good weather and the Saints play in a dome.

Kansas City will be interesting. There’s an 80% chance of precipitation on Friday, and 40% on Saturday, where the winds die down to eight MPH . It’s something to keep in mind, but the field goals will likely be shorter in this one anyways.

New England is the biggest wild card. It’ll likely be the coldest of them all, and while the winds are low the chances of precipitation are fluctuating. The forecast is something to watch, as there’s potential they could be hit with a storm.

How Many Field Goals Will Be Missed in the Divisional Round?

Despite the potential for nasty weather in Foxborough, we’re going with the under on this one.

Most of the kickers left are reliable. And it would take a truly down day from any of the lower tier to make the over playable. Trust the legs this weekend.

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