Odds to Score Fewest Points in 2020 NFL Season – Jaguars Favored, Washington a Close Second

• The Jacksonville Jaguars are +600 favorites to be the NFL’s lowest-scoring team during the 2020 season
• The Jags were 26th in the league in points scored last season. Will they really fall to 32nd?
• The Washington Football Team presents interesting betting value as +700 second-favorites

The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t getting much love as the 2020 NFL season approaches.

The Jags are favored to record the fewest wins in the league this season, and to be the NFL’s last winless team. They’re listed at a betting line of +1800 to win the AFC South Division title.

Along with all this negativity, Jacksonville is also pegged as the +600 chalk to be the NFL’s lowest-scoring team.

Odds on Lowest-Scoring NFL Team in 2020

Odds as of July 27th.

Washington, last season’s lowest-scoring team with 266 points, is the second-favorite at +700. Oddly enough, Washington rates last (+12500), below Jacksonville (+10000) in a prop asking which NFL team will score the most points this season.

Slagging the Jaguars

Everywhere you look, the experts are piling on the Jags. The anticipation is that Jacksonville will be epicly awful this season.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) graded the Jaguars out to be the NFL’s worst team in 2020. The computer model gives Jacksonville a league-high 23% chance to earn the #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, a selection that almost assuredly will be Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Only ONE rookie QB in NFL history has thrown for:

20+ TD
Less than 10 INT
230 Yards Per Game@Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew.

Perhaps he's being underestimated heading into 2020? pic.twitter.com/AsakIb4luF

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) June 18, 2020

The FPI projects the Jags to win an NFL-low 4.9 games this season. Sportsbooks peg Jacksonville’s 2020 season win total at 4.5 games.

Jacksonville finished 26th in points scored last season with 300 points, an average of 18.75 points per game. The Jaguars did little to boost their anemic offense. The only offseason free-agent addition was oft-injured tight end Tyler Eifert.

NFL’s Lowest-Scoring Teams During 2019 Season

With two first-round picks in the NFL Draft, Jacksonville acquired defensive help – Florida cornerback CJ Henderson and LSU linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson.

Escaping the Bottom

A number of teams that were among the NFL’s lowest-scoring squads in 2019 figure to enjoy an uptick in point production this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers (289 points) had two-time Super Bowl-winner Ben Roethlisberger as their starting QB for less than two games.

Most dropbacks with no pressure in 2018:

➤ Ben Roethlisberger – 540
➤ Andrew Luck – 479
➤ Aaron Rodgers – 449 pic.twitter.com/zkzFrNwnTB

— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) July 20, 2020

In 2018, Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yardage.

Also, avoid the New York Jets (276 points) at +800. Sam Darnold was banged up last season and missed three games. The Jets averaged 20.8 points per game in 2018 with a healthy Darnold.

Value Plays to Consider

The Chicago Bears will hold a QB competition between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. The Jags jettisoned former Super Bowl MVP Foles to Chicago, opting to roll with second-year QB Gardner Minshew.

With Trubisky at the helm, the Bears were trending downward as the 2019 season concluded. Chicago averaged 12.3 points per game over its last three games.

If you think Nick Foles needs preseason games to unseat Mitch Trubisky to be the #Bears starting QB, then Chicago made a massive mistake trading for him. Trubisky isn’t very good. And it shouldn’t take a “quality veteran” more than a few practices to prove he’s better.

— Bryan Perez (@BryanPerezNFL) July 20, 2020

The Los Angeles Chargers let QB Philip Rivers and running back Melvin Gordon walk after last season. Rivers threw for 23 touchdowns. Gordon ran for eight TDs and caught one TD pass in just 12 games. He scored 47 TDs for the Chargers over the past four seasons.

That’s an awful lot of offense to surrender. Who thinks Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert at QB will instantly engineer an offense capable of replacing those numbers?

Which Team Will Go Low?

The Jags just don’t look like money here. Jacksonville averaged 19.16 PPG with Minshew as the starting QB. He put up at least 20 points in seven of his 12 starts.

Jacksonville should be able take advantage of the NFL’s 11th-easiest schedule to put some points on the board. And the Jags’ actually grew more productive last season. They jumped from 15.3 PPG in 2018 to 18.8 in 2019.

Highest scramble rates in 2019:

1. Gardner Minshew – 8.9%
2. Lamar Jackson – 8.8%
3. Josh Allen – 8.4%
4. Deshaun Watson – 8.1% pic.twitter.com/KD8f8l32Pp

— PFF (@PFF) July 17, 2020

It’s difficult not to view Washington as a repeat offender here. The NFL team from the nation’s capital spent its first-round draft capital on defensive help, even though the offense scored an NFL-low 266 points last season.

Washington has proven to be steadily bad over the past two seasons. They scored 16.6 points per game last season, on the heels of 17.6 PPG in 2018. No other NFL team has gone under 18 PPG in each of the past two seasons.

Last yr, the Chargers played in 11 one score gms. They went 2-9 & earned a top pk

The offense was 4th in yds/drive, but fell to 14th in pts/drive. Big TO numbers contributed to this, ranking 31st on a per drive basis

Will new QB play help/hurt in ‘20?

Stats (@fboutsiders)

— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) July 23, 2020

As well, they’ve averaged 1.8 TDs per game for two successive seasons.

The best bet is to wager on a Washington repeat. However, if it’s a price that you seek, the Chargers at +1400 offer enticing value.

Pick: Washington (+700)