Upcoming Match-ups

NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 4

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 30, 2022 · 11:48 AM PDT

NFL Week 4 line movement
Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) calls out of the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NFL betting odds for Week 4 are highlighted by two past Super Bowl rematches
  • In one Super Bowl rematch, the Green Bay Packers are 9.5-point home favorites over the New England Patriots
  • The moneylines, spreads and line movement for all games in the NFL odds for Week 4 are assessed in the story below

The Week 4 NFL odds and line movement are featuring Super Bowl rematches and age-old rivalries.

Through three weeks of play, the under continues to be the play on the total in the NFL odds. Just seven of 32 NFL teams have gone over more than they’ve gone under. Just one game of out 16 on the Week 4 schedule is showing a total of 50+ points.

In Super Bowl rematches, the Green Bay Packers are pitted against the New England Patriots, while the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash at Raymond James Stadium, the place where they met in the Super Bowl game two years ago.

Old rivals renewing hostilities are seeing the Los Angeles Rams face the San Francisco 49ers in a repeat of last season’s NFC championship game. The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders and the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos are also going at it.

Before diving into this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-date Week 4 NFL odds.

NFL Week 4 Betting Lines

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Minnesota Vikings -165 -3 (-125) Over 41.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints +140 +3 (+105) Under 41.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Los Angeles Chargers -240 -5 (-110) Over 45 (-110)
Houston Texans +196 +5 (-110) Under 45 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Jacksonville Jaguars +222 +6.5 (-110) Over 45 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -278 -6.5 (-110) Under 45 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Cleveland Browns -120 -1 (-110) Over 47 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons +100 +1 (-110) Under 47 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Seattle Seahawks +158 +4 (-120) Over 48 (-110)
Detroit Lions -190 -4 (+100) Under 48 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Chicago Bears +135 +3 (-115) Over 39.5 (-110)
New York Giants -160 -3 (-105) Under 39.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Washington Commanders +135 +3 (-110) O 41.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys -160 -3 (-110) U 41.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Tennessee Titans +158 +3.5 (-110) Over 43 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts -190 -3.5 (-110) Under 43 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
New York Jets +143 +3.5 (-110) Over 41.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers -170 -3.5 (-110) Under 41.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Buffalo Bills -165 -3 (-110) Over 51 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens +140 +3 (-110) Under 51 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Arizona Cardinals -105 +1 (-110) Over 43.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers -115 -1 (-110) Under 43.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Denver Broncos +118 +2.5 (-110) Over 45.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders -140 -2.5 (-110) Over 45.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
New England Patriots +360 +9.5 (-110) Over 40.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers -480 -9.5 (-110) Under 40.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs -110 PICK (-110) Over 45.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -110 PICK (-110) Under 45.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Los Angeles Rams +105 +1.5 (-110) Over 42.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -125 -1.5 (-110) Under 42.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 30th at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In against the spread picks, home underdogs were 5-4 during Week 3. Only four home teams are underdogs in the betting line for Week 4.

 

 

Week 4 Biggest Line Movement

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the season as they meet in the rematch of their Super Bowl game of two years ago. And NFL betting sites are reluctant to give either team an edge in the point spread.

This game actually opened as Chiefs -2.5, but has since shortened to a pick’em, although there are some sites going with Tampa Bay -1. Kansas City is drawing 80% of handle and 79% of bets on the spread in NFL public betting splits.

Biggest Total Movement In Week 4 NFL Odds

There are a trio of games showing a movement of 3.5 points in the total. Interestingly, considering how strong of a play the under is proving to be so far during the NFL season, it’s been a decline of 3.5 points in each total.

As Doug Pederson returns to Philadelphia with Jacksonville, the Jaguars vs Eagles total slipped from 48.5 points to 45 points. The Buffalo Bills failed to cover a 53-point total in last week’s loss at Miami. Perhaps that explains the drop in the Bills vs Ravens total from 54.5 points to 51 points.

Finally, after watching Jimmy Garoppolo run the San Francisco offense last week, oddsmakers have shortened the total on the 49ers vs Rams game from 46 points to 42.5 points.

Super Bowl Rematch a Pick’em

For the second week in a row, Tom Brady is at home and involved in a game listing as a toss-up. Last week, Brady and the Buccaneers were playing host to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and it was set as a pick’em. Green Bay ended up winning 14-12.

In Week 4, the Buccaneers are home to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and again, oddsmakers are going with the pick’em designation for this game.

In what could be the final meeting between these two QBs, so far they are 2-2 in four previous games against each other.

Packers Given Biggest Week 4 Spread

Green Bay’s first home game of the season saw the Packers cover as 10-point favorites in a 27-10 win over the Chicago Bears. Set as the 9.5-point home chalk over the Patriots, the Packers have covered in each of the last four games in which they’ve been favored by 9 or more points.

Patriots QB Mac Jones (high ankle sprain) is a game-time decision. If he can’t go, Brian Hoyer starts for New England. Last season, New England failed to cover as 11.5 underdogs at Kansas City. The Patriots lost 26-10.

Bears vs Giants Set With Lowest Total of Week 3

Technically, the Bears vs Giants is also a championship rematch. They met in the NFL Championship Game many times over the years, most recently in 1963.

The Bears won that game 14-10. These two teams might be hard-pressed to outdo that total, let alone the Week 4 low total of 39.5 points assigned to this game.

The Bears are #32 in the NFL in total offense. Chicago is garnering 265 yards per game. By comparison, the #21 Giants (331.7 YPG) feel like an offensive juggernaut.

Week 4’s Highest Total is Bills vs Ravens

Last season, it was the Chiefs who dominated the weekly rating of the highest total for over/under wagering. This season, it’s the Buffalo Bills who are so far filling that role.

In Week 3, Buffalo traveled to Miami to face the Dolphins and the total was set at a Week 3 high 53 points. This week, the Bills are in Baltimore to face the Ravens. The total is established at 51 points. That’s three points higher than any other Week 4 game.

The over for this game is getting heavy action in the NFL public betting trends. There are 71% of bets and 58% of the handle backing the Bills vs Ravens game to go over. Baltimore is 2-1 on the total this season. However, Buffalo is just 1-2, which may explain why the line on this total has shortened from 54.5 points to 51.

 

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK


Get Up to $1,000 Back If You Don't Win Your First Bet!

LOCK IN PROMO
NO SWEAT FIRST BET
UP TO
$1,000 BACK

BET NOW
Author Image