Odds TJ Watt Breaks NFL Single-Season Sack Record in Week 18
- TJ Watt is 1.5 sacks away from setting a new single-season record
- Watt and the Steelers face the Ravens in their season finale, a team he racked up 3.5 sacks against in Week 13
- Read below odds and analysis on Watt’s chances of breaking the NFL single-season sack record
TJ Watt is on the verge of accomplishing something many thought his older brother might do. Break Michael Strahan’s all-time single season sack record of 22.5. Watt has racked up 21.5 sacks so far this season, including four in Week 17 on Monday Night Football against the Browns. He now needs 1.5 more sacks in his final game in Week 18 to set a new benchmark.
NFL Sack Record Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outright Record Broken (23+) | +180 |
| Outright Record Tied or Not Broken (22.5 or lower) | -225 |
Odds as of Jan. 4th at BetMGM.
Oddsmakers, however, aren’t exactly bullish on his chances. Watt is an underdog to accomplish the feat despite having a very favorable matchup on deck.
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Watt Set-Up For Success
Watt and the Steelers face the Ravens on Sunday, a team he feasted against earlier in the season. Pittsburgh’s star defender recorded 3.5 sacks on Lamar Jackson back in Week 13, while the Steelers brought down Jackson seven times in total en route to an upset victory.
Power and violence TJ Watt plays with his hands is just off the charts. Look at him forklift the RT on his way to Lamar Jackson. Wicked punch. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/GFJo8PRvr7
— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) December 8, 2021
Jackson hasn’t suited up since suffering an ankle injury in Week 14, but reportedly has a chance to play in Baltimore’s season finale according to his head coach. Given the fact that he was seen limping around the only time he practiced last week and the Ravens’ slim playoff hopes (currently 11th in the AFC), it seems unlikely Jackson goes unless his ankle miraculously is back at full strength.
In all likelihood, Watt will be chasing around another mobile quarterback in Tyler Huntley. Regardless of who is under center for Baltimore though, you have to like Watt’s chances.
That would suck, wouldn't it? 😅😆@JJWatt | @_TJWatt pic.twitter.com/HgWS7fGC8J
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 4, 2022
The Ravens have allowed the most pressures and sacks in the NFL. Jackson taking an average of 3.2 sacks per start, while Huntley’s sack rate is even worse. He’s been dropped 15 times in the four games he’s either started or played the majority of the snaps in, including five times last week agains the Rams.
Ravens Sacks Allowed Last Eight Games
| Opponent | Sacks |
|---|---|
| LA Rams | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 |
| Chicago Bears | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 |
Baltimore has allowed at least three sacks in four of its past five contests, and in six of its past eight.
In Rare Company
Many, including some players, have suggested any record that is broken now that the NFL features a 17-game season should come with an asterisk. That shouldn’t be the case though for Watt should he surpass Strahan.
TJ Watt is easily the defensive player of the year now. He missed 2 full games and still put up legendary numbers. That’s nuts!
— Torrey Smith (@TorreySmithWR) January 4, 2022
Watt has recorded his 21.5 sacks in only 14 games. It’s the most by any Steeler since Joey Porter had 17.5 in 2001, and he’s only the second player in NFL history to accumulate 21 sacks in 14 games or less. Watt has at least 13 sacks in each of his past four seasons, and his 0.93 sacks per game average is the best in league history with a minimum of 70 games played.
He also has a history or racking up sacks in bunches. He’s recorded at least two sacks on six different occasions this season, and has 16 multi-sack games on his NFL resume.
Watt Will Wreck Baltimore Again
Everything points to another big game for Watt on Sunday in the Steelers vs Ravens contest. Baltimore hasn’t been able to protect its quarterback for the entire second half of the season, while you can be sure Pittsburgh will be bringing extra bodies all afternoon to expose the Ravens dismal pass protection.
I really like Alejandro Villanueva a lot. Earned his stripes both in military combat and on football field (Undrafted to Pro Bowl)
BUT I feel badly for him this week against TJ Watt
— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) January 4, 2022
As for Watt’s individual matchup, Pittsburgh would be wise to have him rush at left tackle, and former Steeler, Alejandro Villanueva as much as possible. The 33-year-old is having one of the worst seasons of his career and boasts an atrocious 33.6 pass blocking grade in true pass sets. He’s coughed up 9 sacks, 37 hurries and 55 pressures so far this season, which is far worse than any other Raven.
Look for Watt to not only break Strahan’s record in Week 18, but also solidify his position as the Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Pick: Outright Sack Record Broken (+180)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
