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Odds Say More Than One Wild Card Team Will Win This Weekend, But Seattle Is the Only Road Favorite

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Updated Apr 21, 2020 · 12:36 PM PDT

Derrick Henry running the ball for the Tennessee Titans
Tennessee's Derrick Henry will give New England's top-ranked defense all it can handle on Wild Card Weekend. Photo by Mario957 (wikimedia commons).
  • The over on Wild Card teams winning this weekend has been set at 1.5
  • The Seahawks are the only Wild Card team that’s favored to win, and they are just 1.5-point favorites at the Eagles
  • Wild Card teams won three of four matchups last season and are a combined 10-10 since 2014

The latest NFL playoff futures from sportsbooks indicate that at least two Wild Card teams will win on the road this coming weekend (Jan. 4th-5th). However, the Seattle Seahawks are the only road favorite in the four games.

Over/Under on Wild Card Teams Winning

Prop Odds
Over 1.5 winning -175
Under 1.5 winning +135

Odds taken Dec. 30.

The Seahawks are a 1.5-point favorite over the Eagles in Philadelphia.

However, the home teams are favored in the other three games – the Houston Texans by three points over the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots by 4.5 points over the Tennessee Titans, and the New Orleans Saints by eight points over the Minnesota Vikings.

You can also bet on the exact number of Wild Card teams to win.

Odds on Total Wild Card Winners

Prop Odds
Two teams winning +125
One team winning +175
Zero teams winning +400
Three teams winning +1600
Four teams winning +1600

Odds taken Dec. 30

Wild Cards Ruled Last Year

Three of the four Wild Cards won last season as the Indianapolis Colts beat the Texans 21-7 as two-point underdogs, the Eagles edged the Chicago Bears 16-15 as 6.5-point underdogs, and the Los Angeles Chargers defeated the Baltimore Ravens 23-17 as three-point ‘dogs.

Bears fans will long remember the ending of that loss.

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The Cowboys were the only the division winners to prevail, though Dallas did not cover the 2.5-point spread in a 24-22 victory.

The Wild Card teams have held their own in recent seasons, overall. They are 5-7 over the last three years and 10-10 in the last five postseasons.

In 2015, all four Wild Cards were victorious. The tables were turned the next season when all four were dealt losses.

Texans Poor Favorites

While the Seahawks are favored over the Eagles, two other Wild Cards seem like they might be able to pull upsets.

The Bills have lost three of their last four games and haven’t won a playoff game since 1995. Furthermore, quarterback Josh Allen will be making his first postseason appearance.

Though they don’t look like upset candidates on the surface, it must be factored in that two of the late-season losses were by seven points to the Baltimore Ravens at home and the New England Patriots on the road.

The season-ending 13-6 loss to the New York Jets at home Sunday came in a game that had no bearing on the playoffs. Buffalo was already locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and rested many key starters.

The Bills were 3-2-2 as underdogs against the spread in the regular season. Conversely, the Texas were 1-5-1 ATS as favorites.

Titans Hot, Patriots Not

Meanwhile, the Titans seem in position to give the Patriots a tussle as they won seven of 10 games following a 2-4 start.

New England, meanwhile, went 4-4 in the second half of the season after starting the year with eight straight victories. That included a 27-24 home loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday as a 17.5-point favorite.

The Patriots gave up the fewest points and total yards in the NFL this season. However, the defense will have its hands full with Derrick Henry.

The Titans’ bellcow led the league with 1,540 yards rushing, including gashing the Texans for 211 on Sunday in a 35-14 win which punched Tennessee’s ticket to the playoffs.

Eagles Rolling, Seahawks Stalling

Conversely, the Eagles could topple the Seahawks, especially riding a wave of emotion and playing at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia won its last four games to finish 9-7 and overtake the Cowboys for the NFC East title. The Eagles did so despite a slew of injuries that left the offense relying on many players who have either been released this year or spent most of the season on the practice squad.

Quarterback Carson Wentz finally gets a chance to start a playoff game for the first time in his career after missing the last two postseasons because of injury.

He has been red hot during the winning streak and finished the regular season with a team-record 4,039 passing yards. Wentz became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season in which none of his team’s wide receivers amassed at least 500 yards.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, dropped three of their last four games to lose their grasp on both the NFC West title and top seed in the playoffs.

Saints-Vikings Only Mismatch

The only game in which an upset seems remote is the Saints-Vikings matchup, as evidenced by the spread.

The Saints have won six of their last seven games, going 5-2 against the spread.

The Vikings lost their last two games, both at home. They fell 23-10 to the Green Bay Packers with the NFC Central title on the line then dropped a 21-19 decision to the Chicago Bears in the finale while resting many of their starters.

Recent history, though, has shown that Wild Card teams are capable of winning on the road. The value play is to go with three Wild Card teams to win at a robust +1600.

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