Opening 2020 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds – Donald Favored, One Bosa Listed at +900

• Aaron Donald has opened as the favorite to win the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award
• Stephon Gilmore won the award in 2019, edging out Chandler Jones and Donald
• Is there value with former DPOY winner Khalil Mack?

The 2020 odds to win the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year have opened up and a familiar face is favored to win it. Los Angeles Rams tackle Aaron Donald, who won the award in 2017 and 2019, is favored to win it in 2020. Is he the best bet or is there value with someone else with the NFL DPOY odds?

2020 NFL DPOY Odds

Odds as of Mar. 27.

Donald Favored Once Again

To no one’s surprise, Donald has once again opened up as the favorite. That now makes it the third year in a row that this has happened as the oddsmakers have a pretty good feeling that he’ll be in the running to win this award.

Although Donald didn’t win the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year award in 2019, which is how this prop is graded, by the way, he did get the nod from Pro Football Focus. By their metrics, they feel he should have won the award for a third time in a row.

The reason I’m not as bullish on him in 2020 is I don’t think the Rams will be a very good team. The defense lost a number of key pieces, including defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who really helped this unit overachieve. The linebacking corps lost Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler Jr. and Cory Littleton. That trio combined for 22 sacks.

With the offense saddled with big contracts like Jared Goff and Brandin Cooks, the offensive line a question mark and the defense losing numerous key parts, I’m just not sure the Rams will be a great team. If that’s the case, Donald’s case will be harder to make – even if he puts up similar numbers.

Bosa Second In Line

Nick Bosa will be a popular bet as many people thought the 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year should actually be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Bosa finished the year with nine sacks, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries, an interception and 47 tackles. He had four sacks and another forced fumble in three playoff games.

While it’s maybe not an exact apples-to-apples comparison, Joey Bosa – Nick’s older brother – had 10.5 sacks in his rookie season with 41 tackles and a forced fumble (somewhat similar numbers) but then shot up to 12.5 sacks, 70 tackles, four forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.

The 49ers defense lost a key piece in trading Pro Bowl lineman DeForest Buckner but for the most part, the rest of the defense returns intact. I’d expect Nick Bosa to take a step forward like his brother did and be in the running for the award in 2020.

What’s the Best Bet?

At this point, I like the value with Khalil Mack at +1100. He won the award in 2016 and I think he’ll have a great opportunity in 2020 to do it again. To start, the Bears got rid of Leonard Floyd, who was an inefficient outside rusher opposite of Mack. That led to plenty more double-teams for Mack. The swap from Floyd to Robert Quinn could have a huge impact on the defense.

Outside of that, the biggest help to the Bears defense will be the offense. Last season, Mitchell Trubisky was terrible on third downs, completing just 59.7% of his passes (lowest number between first, second and third downs). As a team, the Bears converted 35.7% of third downs, the eighth-worst mark in the NFL.

With Nick Foles under center, the Bears should be slightly better in that regard and that should put the defense into better positions. They’ll probably play less overall (and be fresher), play less from behind and have a better opportunity to dominate as they did two years ago. Those are the main reasons why I see Mack as being a good bet in 2020.